Thread by @Mylovanov

Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.

But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.

1/

Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.

But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.

2/

Prystaiko: Poland does not want radical escalation now. But if anti-Ukrainian moods help Nawrocki solve domestic problems and gain popularity, Poland may go another round.

Ukraine’s EU accession is not Poland’s priority; protecting its own market is.

3/

Prystaiko: This is the use of emotional tools in foreign policy. The only test is the result.

If we do not lose relations with Poland, if Ukraine’s EU path and exports are not blocked, if new incidents do not follow, then maybe we did it right.

4/

Prystaiko: There is another viewer across the ocean. Moscow still thinks Trump admires strongman rule and Putin.

That viewer must receive the signal that Putin is powerful. But the U.S. starts to feel that things are not as Russia paints them.

5/

Prystaiko: Putin also works for countries that do not want to understand or worry. Many still see Russia as “not America” and believe the myths Moscow feeds them.

Putin must keep those myths alive, so he says: “No, I am negotiating.”

6/

Prystaiko: Politically, Putin already got what he wanted: the power plant, water for Crimea, the land bridge, and the “new republics” he wrote into Russia’s constitution.

7/

Prystaiko: In my view, by the end of summer the moment will come when Putin can make a decision.

He needs to show that he “tried everything”: held talks, explained his position. Russia will still return to the Istanbul documents. They just need a pause to say: okay, back to the table.

8/

Prystaiko: Watch how Russia talks about mid-range strikes. They never say Ukrainian drones.

They say America gave Ukraine millions of drones, or Britain guides the missiles. Anyone but Ukrainians. Then they claim Ukraine was “demilitarized.” Even Russians must find that funny.

9/

Prystaiko: If talks mean peace tomorrow, then yes, we were close to signing a document in Istanbul to stop the fighting.

But Ukraine chose independence, not capitulation. The people, the army, Bucha, and the message from Britain — you have friends, you are not alone — shaped that choice.

10/

Prystaiko: Anchorage was a trip for the photo and the report: we were there.

Trump gave Putin the red carpet, F-35s, applause, the full businessman’s routine to prepare a client for a deal. But it went nowhere. No lunch. Each came out with his own statement.

11/

Prystaiko: Ukraine has already broken many diplomatic protocols, so I would not worry about one more statement.

There is one test: effectiveness. If the signal to Russian elites and society is that their leader is old and cannot bring victory — and we are ready for the reaction — brilliant.

12/

Prystaiko: Abramovich said goodbye to the Chelsea money, but feared how the Kremlin would see it if the funds went to Ukraine.

Britain has now decided the aid must go to Ukraine — and is ready to sue Abramovich if he does not release the money.

13/

Prystaiko: We have overheated presidential power so much that we are slowly moving toward the American model: “Let’s send the president’s son-in-law to negotiate.”

Personalized foreign policy turns into a personalized channel.

14/

Prystaiko: A negotiator who can pick up the phone during talks and call the president is effective.

Even a brilliant diplomat loses time if he must go through a department chief, deputy minister, minister, and only then reach the president. That chain slows everything.

15/

Prystaiko: Russian diplomacy is a caste: deep, structured, elite, hard to enter and almost impossible to leave.

It produces a professional service, fully loyal to the regime. But it is heavy and slow, like a rhinoceros. The problem is that the rhinoceros may run the wrong way.

16/

Prystaiko: Trump changes views on leaders and events easily, and because he sits at the top, this shapes the whole U.S. system.

I think he now genuinely likes how Ukraine fights. Crimea and long-range strikes bring results on the diplomatic front. America celebrates winners.17X

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