Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that Ukraine's drone offensive is setting the conditions for a direct attack on Crimea, by chopping Russian forces in the south of Ukraine into isolated fragments with limited manoeuvrability caused by a lack of fuel. ⬇️

2/ In a new message on his Telegram channel, the imprisoned Girkin writes:

3/ "In principle, the situation is STILL developing STRICTLY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE ENEMY'S STRATEGIC PLAN: our troops continue to exhaust themselves with any attacks in secondary (for the enemy) directions (especially since the Donetsk fortified region – or rather,…

4/ …the network of fortified regions – was originally intended for this kind of strategic defence – it has MANY TIMES EXCEEDED the tasks assigned to it by the enemy and is STILL FULFILLING THEM!).

5/ "At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun implementing long-prepared and, thanks to the launch of mass production, finally implementing plans to gain air superiority and inflict damage on strategic targets deep in Russia.

6/ "At this point, the enemy has succeeded in achieving both the first (including isolating our southern flank from normal supplies for both troops and the population) and the second: THE ENEMY HAS ALREADY INCREASED SEVERE, TARGETED DAMAGE TO OUR FUEL PRODUCTION AND IS WORKING…

7/ …TO FINISH OFF EVERYTHING IT CAN REACH. Now (with the strike on Voronezh and Dubna, among others), the enemy has begun the methodical destruction of our most important military industrial facilities, communications, and so on.

8/ "Moreover, their plans have not failed, but have completely succeeded... Now (right now), the enemy has an opportunity they have never seen before in the war: to attempt a major offensive operation with, if not complete, then partial air superiority.

9/ "Naturally, this superiority is not everywhere, but the enemy has achieved it precisely in the strategically crucial Dnipro-Crimean direction.

10/ "Our air defence and air defence assets in Crimea are, by all appearances, battered; much of this theatre of operations is under the umbrella of medium-range UAVs, which (due to their numbers and skilled use) allow for cutting off the front from the rear,…

11/ …while the rear itself is fragmented in such a way that rapid manoeuvring of reserves/forces/assets is greatly hampered (and in some places, downright impossible, given the knocked out bridges and ferries).

12/ "This situation, of course, will not last forever—our command (I mean the Aerospace Forces and Air Defence) will, of course, find an antidote to mitigate the damage from enemy influence.

13/ "Therefore, the conclusion is: the enemy (likely) has several weeks to conduct its own active offensive (including amphibious) operations.

14/ "If, of course, they have the forces and resources to do so (I personally suspect they have both, but I can't be certain they have enough for a "guaranteed" success, or even close to it).

15/ "In any case, the threat to our left flank is very great. And no further head-on attacks in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy directions will prevent the enemy from actively operating in the south, if they are able or willing to do so. /end

Source:
t.me/strelkovii/7490