1/ Ukraine's attacks on Russia's space communications complexes appear intended to systematically degrade the Russian military's ability to access satellite imagery and communications. Analysts say they'll have a serious impact on military capabilities. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine has so far carried out three attacks on Russia's space communication centers (SCCs) in the Moscow and Vladimir regions. The Dubna SCC was hit twice, on 22 and 30 June, and the Vladimir SCC in Gus-Khrustalny was hit on 24 June.
3/ At Vladimir, the main complex's 25-metre parabolic antenna and the antenna on the roof of the Main Hardware and Software Complex were both damaged. The central part of the latter complex also suffered significant damage, along with the Hardware and Technical Building No. 1.
4/ These buildings house satellite modems and multiplexers, as well as the central switching node, to which fibre-optic communication lines with other space centers are connected.
5/ They also house transmission and reception complexes, the central switching cable route of the SCC's antennas, and equipment for cooling the main antenna's transmitters and electronics.
6/ Three other complexes have not yet been attacked – the Medved'ye Lakes centre (Moscow region) and the Zheleznogorsk (Krasnoyarsk Krai) and Khabarovsk (Khabarovsk Krai) complexes have not been hit.
7/ These sites are a more difficult target for Ukrainian attacks, as they are further from the border. They are likely to need the use of long-range drones, of which a larger number would be needed due to their smaller payloads.
8/ Military analysts say that the attacks will hamper secure satellite communications for the Russian authorities and military, as well as disrupting the Russian military's ability to access the global Internet via satellite.
9/ Russian warbloggers acknowledge the strategic significance of the attacks. Vladimir Romanov comments:
"The enemy is systematically and purposefully knocking out the Space Communications Centers of the Russian Federation."
10/ He complains that "people of retirement age [i.e. the Russian leadership] are constantly expressing their readiness for negotiations and surrendering terrorists from Azov."
'Brothers in Arms' urges readers to "Appreciate the scale of the shitstorm."
11/ "While we're here on the front lines pooling our money for Chinese radios and trying to establish some kind of communication between neighboring forest detachments, the Ukrainians are casually launching their drones hundreds of kilometers into our territory.
12/ "And they're not hitting random targets, but a strategic space communication hub right in the Moscow region.
13/ "Where is our legendary, unparalleled layered air defence system? Where is the impenetrable shield over strategic facilities, which they've been sweetly talking about on TV for years?
14/ "Obviously, it's just a pretty slide for presentations at Frunzenskaya [the Russian MOD HQ in Moscow]. The enemy is methodically, professionally blinding and deafening us at the state level.
15/ "But in the official reports, we'll once again be fed the usual lie that "the air defence system worked as intended, and the grass was damaged by falling debris". We'll keep pretending everything is going exactly according to plan." /end
1/ Russian warbloggers are warning that despite growing indications of a planned second mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September 2026, there are major unresolved practical problems in actually carrying out a new mobilisation. ⬇️
2/ Yesterday the warblogger Vladimir Romanov commented on a rumoured plan to mobilise 1.2 million Russian men in the fall. In response, 'Ghost of Novorossiya' writes:
3/ "It's difficult to comment seriously on rumours, but discussions regarding the likelihood of a second mobilisation have long since transcended the realm of speculation.
1/ Russian soldiers are reported to be refusing en masse to attack across the border west of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russian army units are said to have run out of fuel amidst the ongoing fuel crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russians are currently trying to link up two pockets on the border in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, to the east and west of the Russian village of Sereda, by attacking to the south. However, Ukrainian drones are reportedly making this unbearably bloody.
3/ 'Northern Channel' reports:
"There's a forest on the approach to Ternova, nicknamed "the Magic Forest"... As you can tell from the introduction, there's nothing good there."
1/ Russia should deter Europe and ensure Ukraine's defeat by destroying 20 industrial centres in an arc from London to Bologna, says a prominent Russian Telegram channel. 'Extract' says this could be done "relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success". ⬇️
2/ Reiterating a common theme among Russian warbloggers that Russia needs to make Europe fear it again, 'Extract' highlights how Europe's industrial production – and ability to support Ukraine – is concentrated in a "blue banana" across the centre of western Europe:
3/ "If Russia really wanted to defeat Europe or completely disarm and destroy its military industry, Moscow would be able to do so relatively easily and with virtually guaranteed success.
1/ Russia is preparing for its borders to be closed in the fall of 2026, according to a Russian source. If confirmed, the report potentially adds credence to indications that Russia is preparing for a fresh mobilisation after the Russian legislative elections in September. ⬇️
2/ There have recently been persistent but unconfirmed claims that the Kremlin is planning to carry out a large-scale mobilisation to swamp Ukrainian forces with fresh troops in order to achieve Vladimir Putin's goal of capturing all of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' writes:"According to a source, the Kremlin has held closed consultations with the leadership of several neighbouring countries (primarily Kazakhstan, to a lesser extent Georgia, possibly Azerbaijan and others) about temporarily closing entry/exit…
1/ Russian sources say that Kazakhstan will provide 50,000 tons of gasoline to Russia in July and August as 'humanitarian aid'. However, as this amounts to only slightly more than 1.6% of Russia's monthly gasoline consumption, it's little more than a token effort. ⬇️
2/ According to Reuters, Russian sources say that Al-95 and Al-92 gasoline will be provided from the Pavlodar oil refinery and the "Condensate" oil refinery, which processes Russian raw materials. However, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy is more equivocal:
3/ The ministry says: “The possibility of supplying automobile gasoline produced by LLP "Condensate" to Russia in the near future will depend on the level of supply of petroleum products to the domestic market of Kazakhstan."
1/ Female Russian convict soldiers are complaining that the Russian military has reneged on their contracts. Instead of being pardoned after completing their military service, they say, they will now be sent back to jail.
2/ 39-year-old Lyudmila Leonidovna Poltarakova was recruited from a Russian prison along with more than 80 other women. She is part of the 370th Separate Medical Battalion (military unit 57062) of the 2nd Guards Taman Motor Rifle Division.
3/ The women work as medics for an evacuation group, removing the wounded and dead from the battlefield. This is highly dangerous work, carried out under constant threat of drone and artillery attack.