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Jul 8 21 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Russia faces a car apocalypse in the next few months due to the government's decision to allow scarce gasoline to be adulterated, a Russian warblogger warns. The low-quality gasoline will inevitably cause mass failures of vehicles across the country. ⬇️ Image
2/ Alexey Zhivov writes:

"In August and October, the country will be inundated with tens of thousands of video messages from car owners facing lengthy and expensive repairs. Some will be left without wheels."
3/ "This will happen just in time for the State Duma elections, and you can be sure the enemy Center for Social and Political Studies will exploit this topic to the fullest.
4/ "The sluggishness of relevant agencies in protecting oil refineries from drone attacks, the first of which began in 2024, with the oil refinery in Omsk recently attacked, has led to a "temporary" fuel shortage, which we are already seeing at gas stations across the country.
5/ "The government has found no better solution than to lower the requirements for Euro-5 gasoline by increasing the sulphur content in the final product. This gasoline will be sold at all gas stations starting in early July as AI-95 Euro-5.
6/ "Moreover, the order does not contain any requirements for special labeling of such fuel at gas stations. The option of paying more but still getting normal gasoline will be eliminated.
7/ "No "stocking filters in the tank" will help—sulphur is dissolved in the fuel at the molecular level.
8/ "After a breakdown, it will be impossible to sue gas stations: they operate under a government order and will not be held liable for the fuel's quality. There is no doubt that the share of even lower-quality surrogates will also increase.
9/ "All cars manufactured after 2015 will be at risk—especially those with highly-powered turbocharged engines, and virtually all modern Chinese, German, Korean, Japanese, and other vehicles.
10/ "The government is thus indirectly shifting the losses to consumers, who are offered no alternative but to switch to a fuel that does not meet the technical requirements of modern engines.
11/ "This is a classic example of nationalisation of losses—shifting the mistakes of some onto the wallets of others.
12/ "As the market becomes saturated with "anti-crisis" fuel, car owners will experience massive failures of fuel pumps, catalytic converters, injection systems, and other high-precision fuel equipment.
13/ "Service centres will be overwhelmed—repair queues could stretch for months, if not a year.

Owners of Chinese cars will likely partially adapt to the situation, but owners of cars from "unfriendly" countries will face serious problems and high costs.
14/ "It appears that future repair costs for car owners have been deemed a lesser evil compared to fuel shortages, which are already becoming a political factor.
15/ "Many citizens are asking a reasonable question: are there anyone to blame in this situation other than the Ukrainian Armed Forces? So far, it appears that no one is to blame.
16/ "What should car owners do?

▪️The most meticulous can request quality certificates from gas stations and specify the specific type of gasoline they're using, avoiding "anti-crisis" grades. Regularly "clean" the fuel system.
17/ "▪️Others say they'll put the car out of service until the end of 2026, which could be cheaper than subsequent repairs.
18/ "▪️Those with the financial reserves may want to consider purchasing cars produced between 2010 and 2015, or low-power Russian models that are more resistant to low-quality fuel.
19/ "▪️I would recommend postponing the purchase of new modern cars or buying an electric car.
20/ "In the context of the Special Military Operation:

▪️The enemy's fuel situation will soon be worse than ours. Gas stations and refineries will burn down. Gasoline will either be very expensive or of very low quality, priced two to three times higher than in Russia.
20/ "The enemy will pay dearly for our fuel crisis. If that makes you feel any better." /end

Source:
t.me/zhivoff/27136

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 10
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️ Image
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
Read 30 tweets
Jul 10
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:

– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
Read 32 tweets
Jul 10
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.
Read 28 tweets
Jul 10
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️ Image
2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
3/ Ukraine's heavy drones such as the Vampire drone bomber (called 'Baba Yaga' by the Russians) are a capability that Russia has consistently failed to replicate. Instead, Russian soldiers seek out downed Ukrainian heavy drones and repair them for reuse.
Read 29 tweets
Jul 9
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️ Image
2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:

"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
3/ "He's asking you to raise the issue of fuel supplies for mobile task forces. Considering that our new acting governor [Alexander Shuvaev] is a military man, I'm sure (or at least want to believe) that he or his aides are reading your posts and will be able to reach them…
Read 17 tweets
Jul 9
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has developed rapidly and with increasing nationwide severity. A Russian commentary notes that the Russian government only has limited options for dealing with fuel shortages, but these are being overtaken by a fast-growing black market in fuel. ⬇️ AI-generated image of a Russian fuel black marketeer
2/ 'Federation Towers' highlights how quickly Russia has been plunged into a full-scale fuel crisis:

"The Russian fuel market held up smoothly for all four years of the Special Military Operation."
3/ "In one week in July, it suffered a blow on two fronts: gasoline prices rose by 2.1%, diesel by 3.4%, and gas stations in dozens of regions are experiencing physical shortages of fuel.
Read 18 tweets

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