ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jul 8 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ The Russian government's aggressive suppression of news about Ukraine's oil refinery drone strikes appears to be backfiring. According to Russian sources, ordinary people don't think fuel shortages are real and are blaming the government instead. ⬇️
2/ News in Russia is tightly controlled, with most people getting their information from state TV and news outlets that are friendly towards the Kremlin. Negative news about the war in Ukraine, or even actual battlefield footage, is often absent from the state-controlled media.
3/ Oleg Tsarev points out the flaws in this approach:

"A friend was traveling to Yalta and shared his observations:
4/ "– Hi. I've stood in gas lines in the Krasnodar and Rostov regions. Everywhere, people blame the authorities and resellers. They basically think there's no problem with gasoline—someone in power is just trying to make a buck."
5/ "Please note: the policy of concealing the consequences of the strikes on our oil refineries leads to such strange conclusions. If they don't show the strikes on the oil refineries, then they don't exist.
6/ "If there are no strikes, but there is no fuel either, then some bastards are profiting off the people. The logic of the masses can sometimes be extremely convoluted.
7/ "There are no good solutions here. Showing the strikes would delight the enemy and stir up panic. Not showing them would give rise to conspiracy theories like these.

Of course, it's better to give the population gasoline and call it a day. But what if that doesn't work?
8/ "I would tell the truth. Even if it's bitter. Always. I wouldn't be afraid that the people won't be able to handle the truth. The people will. But I'm not the government. And it's not for me to make decisions.

In any case, we have what we have." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 8
1/ Russia faces a car apocalypse in the next few months due to the government's decision to allow scarce gasoline to be adulterated, a Russian warblogger warns. The low-quality gasoline will inevitably cause mass failures of vehicles across the country. ⬇️ Image
2/ Alexey Zhivov writes:

"In August and October, the country will be inundated with tens of thousands of video messages from car owners facing lengthy and expensive repairs. Some will be left without wheels."
3/ "This will happen just in time for the State Duma elections, and you can be sure the enemy Center for Social and Political Studies will exploit this topic to the fullest.
Read 21 tweets
Jul 8
1/ A Ukrainian attack on a Russian fuel convoy heading to Crimea across the Sea of Azov has likely crippled effects to supply the fuel-starved peninsula by water. Russian warbloggers are dismayed and scornful about the Russian government's tactics. ⬇️
2/ Accoding to 'Important Stories', the vessels were carrying a total of 35,500 tons of fuel and other oil products:
3/ – Venus III — 6,500 tons of fuel oil;
– Sanar-1 — 5,200 tons of gas condensate;
– Sanar-17 — 6,000 tons of ship fuel;
– Climene — 4,900 tons of fuel oil;
– Alexey Savrasov — 6,000 tons of ship fuel;
– Penelope — 6,900 tons of fuel oil.
Read 32 tweets
Jul 7
1/ Crimea is approaching an economic collapse amidst chronic fuel and electricity shortages, according to a Russian report from the region. Even water is a problem, due to a lack of energy to power pumps and the need to use generators to extract it. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Telegram blogger 'Lawyer in the South' reports on the current situation in Crimea and the Russian south-west:
3/ "Last week, I took a trip to Crimea by car.

This article isn't about assigning blame or sowing panic. It's an attempt to soberly assess the situation and consider ways to solve problems, not just react to them.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 7
1/ Ukraine's drone campaign is leading not only to fuel shortages but also political recriminations in Russia. The attack on the Omsk oil refinery yesterday is prompting increasingly harsh condemnations of Russia's government by Russian warbloggers. ⬇️
2/ 'Older than Edda' is outraged at the attack's success:

"Drone debris has reached Omsk, and hostile channels are distributing a defamatory video claiming it landed and caused a fire at a plant."
3/ "I don't want to be outraged yet again by the fact that several drones fly across the country for many hours and manage to hit something with drone debris."

Like many others, Sergey Kolayashnikov complains that it demonstrates Russian weakness:
Read 23 tweets
Jul 7
1/ Why is Russia's air defence system so patchy that it regularly lets Ukrainian drones cross thousands of kilometres of Russian territory? A prominent Russian drone developer highlights a range of deficiencies in Russia's air defences. ⬇️
2/ As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:
3/ "The situation with the Omsk Oil Refinery raises the awkward question of "transit" regions—regions where local anti-drone enforcement agents operate based on the objective-based defence principle: if it's not aimed at us, let it fly on,…
Read 23 tweets
Jul 6
1/ Today's Ukrainian strikes against a Russian oil refinery in distant Omsk are being greeted with gloom by Russian warbloggers. They say that their predictions of increasingly wide-ranging Ukrainian raids were ignored, but are now coming true. ⬇️
2/ 'Rybar' writes:

"What happened is what was predicted last year: Ukrainian formations were able to reach Omsk, which is more than 2,500 km from the front line, with modernised FP-1 drones.
3/ "We believe that against this backdrop, discussions and debates about the involvement of Kazakhstani territory and various saboteurs will start again, but this is just a search for excuses, not a solution.
Read 20 tweets

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