1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️
2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
3/ Ukraine's heavy drones such as the Vampire drone bomber (called 'Baba Yaga' by the Russians) are a capability that Russia has consistently failed to replicate. Instead, Russian soldiers seek out downed Ukrainian heavy drones and repair them for reuse.
"The enemy is employing new infantry group operations. Single vehicle and column approaches are still common, and sometimes these operations are successful."
5/ "However, thanks to dense green cover, enemy personnel are increasingly traveling lightly and infiltrating positions in small groups as stealthily as possible.
6/ "Thanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' air logistics capabilities, assault operations have naturally evolved. Personnel are passing through the kill zone lightly. Meanwhile, they are resupplied by air. Let me explain.
7/ "This isn't a shabby stronghold where food and medical supplies are dropped. This is a fresh assault group, which is being airdropped with protective equipment, ammo, drones, heavy weapons, Starlinks, and so on.
8/ "Having received everything they need, the soldiers make a breakthrough. And the breakthrough is effective, since they didn't have to lug all their equipment tens of kilometres.
9/ "Logistics has undergone a natural transformation. It hasn’t disappeared—it has taken to the skies. Isolated operations have evolved into a supply system. The enemy’s dominance in the sky has not only complicated our logistics,…
10/ …but now our assault teams may unexpectedly encounter a large-caliber machine gun or a heavily armoured group with anti-tank weapons in places where previously there were only exhausted fighters with assault rifles and minimal ammunition.
11/ "Can we repeat this tactic? To do so, we need to answer the question of how many operational heavy drones or ground robots we actually have. Numerous reports speak of thousands of soulless drones. In reality… well, let’s hope for the best."
12/ 'Russian Engineer' comments that "the heavy multi-rotor aircraft (Baba Yaga) is being reborn into a different entity – an air bridge."
13/ "It's no secret that Baba Yaga's former effectiveness is already declining; they are suffering ever-increasing losses due to the growing number of our interceptors, and in their current form, they are losing relevance.
14/ "However, using them as logistics platforms completely thwarts attempts to isolate the front lines, as shooting them down over enemy territory is significantly more difficult than over our own.
15/ "Moreover, our interceptor numbers remain insufficient, and our awareness is far from ideal.
16/ "Therefore, the development of heavy copters for direct combat operations is a bit overdue, but their development as transport platforms is both possible and necessary.
And don't forget about their potential use as a base for [signal] repeaters.
17/ "The development of heavy combat drones is already moving toward the use of guided munitions. This makes it possible to dramatically increase the probability of a hit at a moderate cost, while raising the drone’s operational altitude, which reduces its vulnerability.
18/ "Unfortunately, the enemy is already testing similar designs. So this area is an obvious and pressing challenge for our developers.
19/ 'BCh 3' observes that even as the Ukrainians are becoming better equipped due to their drone-powered air bridge, the Russian infantry is undergoing a "reverse evolution" and is becoming even less well equipped due to the harsh conditions on the battlefield:
20/ "At the line of contact and nearby, the reverse evolution continues. Goggles, once a must-have for every tactical warrior, have proven ineffective, hindering combat, and are now reserved for motorcyclists and drivers without a windshield or roof.
21/ "Tactical helmets with earpieces are practically unheard of: the temples are exposed. Earpieces themselves, too, are a hindrance; they’re now used only by artillery crews and a few others.
22/ "Hydration packs are easily torn and punctured in dense plantations; calimator packs are almost never used because they easily get knocked off in rubble and crevices.
23/ "Michelangelo said, "I take a stone and cut away all that is unnecessary." So too, war mercilessly cuts away everything unnecessary and precious.
24/ "The stronger and more rugged your footwear, the more severe the injury you'll suffer if you step on a "petal" [anti-personnel mine]. A sneaker simply shatters, while combat boots produce a kind of targeted blow.
25/ "Powerful SUVs are a thing of the past; you're not going on a safari. Soviet-era vehicles with sawed-off roofs rule the roost; a plank in the back holds a turret with a machine gun, or even better, a twin-barreled trio.
26/ "Soldiers rely only on their eyes and ears, a covered back, and running, running, with harnesses on their belts, because they often have to shed their body armour to squeeze through some crevice in the rubble or an abandoned, crumbling bunker in a forested area.
27/ "But progress glimmers, as long as it glimmers in the right places. For example, one of the main advantages of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is heavy drones like the Yaga, controlled by a Starlink, which is indifferent to any electronic warfare.
28/ "And this not only provides strike power, it also provides supplies – 6 kilograms of food and water for the soldiers at a time. We drop supplies ourselves via FPV drones. The difference is huge.
29/ "But recently, our Veles drones have started appearing—similar drones, but with fiber optics. Wherever they go, the enemy immediately becomes sad." /end
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️
2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:
"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
3/ "He's asking you to raise the issue of fuel supplies for mobile task forces. Considering that our new acting governor [Alexander Shuvaev] is a military man, I'm sure (or at least want to believe) that he or his aides are reading your posts and will be able to reach them…
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has developed rapidly and with increasing nationwide severity. A Russian commentary notes that the Russian government only has limited options for dealing with fuel shortages, but these are being overtaken by a fast-growing black market in fuel. ⬇️
2/ 'Federation Towers' highlights how quickly Russia has been plunged into a full-scale fuel crisis:
"The Russian fuel market held up smoothly for all four years of the Special Military Operation."
3/ "In one week in July, it suffered a blow on two fronts: gasoline prices rose by 2.1%, diesel by 3.4%, and gas stations in dozens of regions are experiencing physical shortages of fuel.
1/ It's logistically impossible for Russia to protect all of its strategic sites with its limited number of missile-based air defence systems, warns a Russian warblogger. Huge sites and obscured visibility requires many such systems but reduces the effectiveness of each. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' highlights the practical difficulties of using SAM systems to provide adequate protection:
"When discussing the protection of rear-line facilities from cruise missile attacks, one thing is often forgotten."
3/ "People often ask, "Where are the Pantsir/Tor missiles?" But the fact is that protecting every strategically important facility with its own "reliable, classic ground-based air defence" against low-altitude, relatively fast targets with complex trajectories has long been…
1/ In a stark illustration of the impact of Ukraine's drone strike campaign against Russian refineries, videos from occupied Mariupol show vehicles all but absent from the streets, with burned-out trucks visible along the roads. A Russian commentary highlights the crisis. ⬇️
2/ 'Novorossiya Militia Reports' writes:
"If anyone is monitoring the situation, they should know that Ukraine is delivering an average of two [destroyed] refineries to us per day."
3/ "The authorities' statements about the normalisation of the fuel situation in a "week" or "two" are surprising.
1/ The Russian government's aggressive suppression of news about Ukraine's oil refinery drone strikes appears to be backfiring. According to Russian sources, ordinary people don't think fuel shortages are real and are blaming the government instead. ⬇️
2/ News in Russia is tightly controlled, with most people getting their information from state TV and news outlets that are friendly towards the Kremlin. Negative news about the war in Ukraine, or even actual battlefield footage, is often absent from the state-controlled media.
3/ Oleg Tsarev points out the flaws in this approach:
"A friend was traveling to Yalta and shared his observations: