Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 11 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
In recent weeks, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large number of strikes against electricity infrastructure in Crimea

Since 2026 started, both Ukraine and Russia 🇷🇺 launched continuous strikes against each other energy infrastructure.

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Recently, most of Crimea has been without power after a large number of Ukrainian strikes (source : @georgewbarros).

You can see here that most of the peninsula was lacking electricity, including large cities.
In total, around 37 electric substations have been hit, together with oil and gas infrastructure.

This has drastic consequences on both civilian and military infrastructure of the peninsula.
Zoom for Crimea : Image
These strikes are also targeting Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donbas. The effect is still limited, but with the scaling of these strikes, it will soon be a problem for logistics, civilian life, military actions. Image
If Ukraine recently started to launch these strikes, we shouldn't forget the longer Russian campaign that particularly happens before winter.

Here is a map of all Shahed/Geran strikes (both geoconfirmed and claimed) on electricity infrastructure since 2024. Image
Russian drones, especially operator controled Geran/Gerbera drones are hitting a large amount of electric substations across the country every month, mainly in the east, but sometimes farther, with 3 strikes in May in Zakarpatya !
Closer to the frontline, including in Sumy and Kharkiv, fiber optic FPV drones are used to hit electric transformers.

This may cut electricity for these cities next winter.
Again, 4 months before next winter, the electric situation of Ukraine is difficult.

Next winter will be much more difficult (last winter saw Kyiv without power with -18 degrees).

The only solution is probably to replicate these strikes to Russia. If Belgorod, Kursk, Briansk and other cities are left without power at the same time Ukraine is suffering from Russian strikes, maybe both countries can come to an agreement to stop strikes on electricity grid.

I do not believe this will ever happen, so the situation will remain difficult and worsen throughout next winter.Image
Thank you for following this thread on both Ukrainian and Russian strikes on electricity infrastructure.

I remain commited to talk about what both sides are doing, like i did here.

Sources for UKR strikes include : @MikiValbuena @stopthetwigs @UAControlMap and @AndrewPerpetua

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 8
During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.

Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Image
The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).

All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground. Image
Today, the Ukrainian army of drones () published a compilation of nearly 200 strikes on trucks and vehicles near Crimea.

This video covers multiple units work for the 1st week of July. The good point ? Everything is proven. t.me/robert_magyar/…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 2
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those : Image
Image
Image
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The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 1
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️Image
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 30
In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Image
Near Zaporizhzhia, are still digging new lines, with currently 5 lines protecting the city from the east.

Red are lines dug in 2026, yellow in 2025 and white in 2024 (mostly obsolete). Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 29
Since early May, Ukraine 🇺🇦 targeted nearly 800 Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles on key logistical roads.

This strike campaign continue to be scaling, with strikes on railway infrastructure, bridges and the isolation of Crimea.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
Here is the video of the ~784 trucks and vehicles hit by the Ukrainians (mainly videos from the drones, since we can't always tell the difference with ground footage).

Strikes target military trucks, fuel trucks, cargo trucks, cars, buses and trucks closer to the frontline.
In total, I counted 784 trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones since early May.

🔹The per day average since May is 13
🔹May average is 7 (214 trucks)
🔹June average is 19 (570 trucks)
🔸Last 10 days average is 29 (295)

Read 18 tweets

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