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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Jul 21 • 8 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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German lobbyists and ex-politicians Ronald Pofalla and Matthias Platzeck are keeping a back channel to Putin’s circle.

Through meetings in Baku and Abu Dhabi, Moscow gets a private route into Germany’s SPD and CDU, — The Times. 1/ Image
Last week, Pofalla and Platzeck met Putin associates in Baku. Russian participants included Valery Fadeyev, who heads Putin’s civil society council, and Viktor Zubkov, former deputy PM and Gazprom board chair. 2/
Berlin distances itself from the effort. Friedrich Merz’s chief of staff, Thorsten Frei, said Russia has shown no real willingness to negotiate and that all international attempts failed because of Moscow. 3/
Chatham House expert John Lough says Germany matters to the Kremlin because of its economic power and its potential role in rebuilding European defence as U.S. support becomes less certain. 4/
Europe is again discussing possible ceasefire channels. Names floated include Schröder, Merkel, Steinmeier, Stubb, Niinistö and Draghi. So far, the Kremlin has not engaged seriously. 5/
Schröder looks compromised by his Putin ties. Steinmeier carries the baggage of pre-2022 Russia policy. Merkel says Putin would not engage with a European envoy who lacks real political power. 6X
Source:

thetimes.com/world/europe/a…
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 21
Trump lifted CAATSA sanctions on Turkey to reopen F-35 sales, erasing the penalty Ankara earned by buying Russia's S-400 air defense system.

That decision tells every buyer of Russian arms that CAATSA is now a bargaining chip Washington plays selectively — Foreign Policy. 1/ Image
Congress passed CAATSA in 2017 with bipartisan support, and Trump himself signed it into law during his first term.

It lets the president punish any government or company running major arms deals with Russia', from Rosoboronexport down to a single named buyer. 2/
In 2018 Washington sanctioned China's arms agency and its director Li Shangfu over Su-35 jets and S-400 systems from Rosoboronexport.

In 2020 it sanctioned Turkey's defense procurement body over its own S-400 deal. Both penalties hit the offices that bought the arms. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 21
Europe Is Back in 1952. France and Germany are competing over weapons again — just when Europe needs them to build defense together against Russia, De Gruyter for FP. 1/ Image
European countries still rely heavily on US defense firms: $68bn spent in 2024, compared with an average of $11bn between 2017 and 2021.

But Europe’s main internal problem is now the Franco-German rift. 2/
The FCAS fighter-jet project was meant to showcase European defense integration. It collapsed in June after Dassault and Airbus failed to agree on leadership, IP and patents.

Germany paid half the bill. Spain was not even informed. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 21
Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces commander Madyar:

First, NATO should build a buffer zone along every border.

Call it a drone work zone, not a kill zone. From 0 to 5 km, enemy movement must become impossible under a drone shield.

1/
Madyar: Second: run a fiber-optic grid into that zone. It should connect UAV launch pads to command posts far from the front.

One operator should not fly one drone. From a command post, one operator must be able to launch 5, 10 or 15 drones on the front line.

2/
Brovdi: Third: build air defense made only to fight drones: scouts and Shahed-type munitions. Shaheds cost $50,000-$70,000, fly far and hit hard.

Today Putin sends 300. In a year, he may send 1,000 a day. No country can stop 1,000 Shaheds a day with Patriots.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 21
Graham’s “hellish sanctions” got less hellish.

The bill drops automatic 500% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy. The new version lets Trump set tariffs up to 100% and delay some sanctions for 180 days, Babel.

1/ Image
India buys Russian oil and sells a $100 product to the US.

Under the old bill, the US importer would pay an extra $500 tariff.That $100 product would cost $600.

The White House opposed automatic sanctions and 500% tariffs on partner countries.

2/
After 2022, India and China became the top buyers of Russian oil.

India bought about $2.3 billion in Russian oil in 2021. In 2024, it bought almost $53 billion.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 21
Yevhen Khmara appointed acting Defence Minister of Ukraine. Here is what we know about him.

Khmara, 40, led the liberation of Snake Island, helped plan Operation “Spider Web,” and commanded one of the top 3 most effective units in the army — Special Operations Center “A”.

1/ Image
At the start of the full-scale invasion, Khmara served in the liberation of Kyiv region and carried out combat missions in Donetsk.

On January 5, 2026, he was appointed acting head of the Ukrainian Security Service, replacing Vasyl Maliuk.

2/
Khmara is a full recipient of the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, and has also been awarded the Order ‘For Courage’, 3rd class, and the President of Ukraine’s ‘Cross of Military Merit’.
3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 20
Russia is firing missiles faster than its factories build them. In 19 days of July, it launched 20 Zircons out of the 30 it is expected to produce in all of 2026.

It spent two-thirds of the year's planned Zircon output already, drawing on its reserve — United24. 1/ Image
Alongside those 20 Zircons, Russia fired 107 ballistic missiles between July 1 and 19, counted from daily reports by Ukraine's Air Force and regional air commands.

That ballistic total alone already surpassed what Russia's factories are estimated to build in a full month. 2/
HUR estimates Russia manufactures about 60 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and around 40 RM-48U missiles for S-400 systems each month, roughly 100 ballistic missiles combined.

July's launches crossed that monthly output line with more than ten days still left on the calendar. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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