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Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
@KrVaSt
Jul 21 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
In the coming weeks, our climate system will face its greatest test of resilience.

We are already witnessing a severely abnormal spike in global mean sea surface temperature.

The imbalance we are currently observing is dictating the subsequent effects on all feedback loops. Image
We are seeing the first signs of destabilizing, runaway behavior affecting the ice sheets, sea ice, permafrost, and rainforests.
A shift back to a stable climate following the El Niño event now appears impossible.
And that is precisely what time will tell.
@UNFCCC
@turkiyecop31 Image

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More from @KrVaSt

Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Jun 17
--- Jakobshavn Glacier ---

We simply have to take this seriously. Without a doubt. Greenland as a robust whole is at risk. And we will bear the consequences of this in every country on our planet within this decade.

When you look closely, you can see that the speed of the glacier branches (the northern branch, the central branch, and the eastern main branch) is reaching very worrying levels.
The ice slush is also likely being discharged very easily into the Ilullisat Ice Fjord this year.
The moment visible accelerations are observed, we also see that the meltwater lakes further upstream suddenly empty, which further improves the lubrication beneath the glacier branches.
We're heading towards 250 meters per day.
What we learn from this is simply shocking.
@UNFCCC
Read 6 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Feb 22, 2025
People keep asking me why sea levels are suddenly rising so fast.
It's actually quite simple.
In the past, the northern glaciers accelerated from Mar to Nov & the southern glaciers from Oct to Apr, & then slowed down again.

Now they accelerate all year round in both hemispheres.


Image
What is very important to mention here is the fact that the sea level rise itself is now starting to contribute to the loosening of ice shelves, which in turn are normaly slowing down the glaciers.
Ice shelves are losing their anchorage very quickly. Especially around Antarctica.
This self-stabilizing system (of expanding & thickening ice shelves) is now also collapsing completely due to irreversible drift.
We see that 90% of all glaciers are currently thundering into the sea at double or even quadruple speed in some cases.
Read 4 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Mar 11, 2024
Remember this article.
Read it & think about it.

Right now we're losing the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), and with it the rest of the glacier & the entire West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS)!

How long before climate change claims the Thwaites Glacier? thenationalnews.com/weekend/2023/0…
worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1616511.94…
@MarkTrewick1
Here's a little more explanation.
First & foremost, it's important to understand the teleconnection between Greenland & Antarctica via sea level rise (and fall).
Meltwater from Greenland has a greater effect on sea levels in the southern hemisphere & vice versa.
Read 10 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Jan 24, 2024
--- Thwaites Glacier ---

We must dare to share the story of the Thwaites Glacier in all honesty, & with all the knowledge we currently have about it, with the most affected group, humanity & with nature as a whole.

worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1643416.42…
The loss of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will directly cause a sea level rise of 2 to 3 millimeters.
The loss of the glacier tongue behind it & the inland floating parts will cause an indirect sea level rise of 10 cm to 1 meter, due to sliding land ice.
If the land ice & semi-floating ice above the Byrd Subglacial Basin start to break & shear, then we can speak of a self-reinforcing effect due to the sea level rise itself, or better due to the lifting & destabilization of all ice shelves, glaciers & high land ice.
Read 6 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023
BREAKING
(to make it clearer)

Today the 2-month running mean anomaly (reference period 1850-1900) has hit 1.5°C!

0.97°C above the baseline 1979-2000 (used in this graph from ECMWF) means the same as 1.5°C above the baseline 1850-1900 (pre-industrial times).
@UNFCCC
@COP28_UAE
Image
Main cause:
The global mean sea surface temperature increased by 0.35°C (annual average) in just one year (not entirely induced by El Niño conditions).

These extreme conditions seem to hold on, no matter what'll happen in the Niño sector.

#abruptwarming

climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Image
This also means we have to expect:

- the 3-month running mean anomaly will hit 1.5°C within 7 to 10 days.
- the 6-month running mean anomaly will hit 1.5°C within 1 to 2 months.
- the 12-month running mean anomaly will hit 1.5°C within 3 to 5 months.

2023: +1.5°C?
2024: +1.7°C? Image
Read 4 tweets
Kris Van Steenbergen Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023
--- Thwaites Glacier ---
Story of the fingernails!

This could become the longest thread I've ever written, because I want to ask experts to respond to this, because I want to create a question-answer forum and I want to make it understandable for everyone.
Questions are welcome. Image
The central part of the calving field exerts a force on the western flank of the glacier tongue parallel to the submarine slope, which could potentially cause serious destabilization if iceberg B45 (pinning point 9) detaches & slides towards iceberg B22a into deeper water.
The Thwaites Glacier Tongue, its debris & a few neighbouring features are losing grip. Pinning points (or anchor points if you want) like point 4, 6 & 8 are very important to monitor, because when the fast ice above them will melt a little more they'll be lost as buttress system. Image
Read 49 tweets

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