Remember this article.
Read it & think about it.

Right now we're losing the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), and with it the rest of the glacier & the entire West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS)!

How long before climate change claims the Thwaites Glacier? thenationalnews.com/weekend/2023/0… worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1616511.94…

--- Thwaites Glacier ---

We must dare to share the story of the Thwaites Glacier in all honesty, & with all the knowledge we currently have about it, with the most affected group, humanity & with nature as a whole.

worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1643416.42… The loss of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will directly cause a sea level rise of 2 to 3 millimeters.
The loss of the glacier tongue behind it & the inland floating parts will cause an indirect sea level rise of 10 cm to 1 meter, due to sliding land ice.

BREAKING
(to make it clearer)

Today the 2-month running mean anomaly (reference period 1850-1900) has hit 1.5°C!

0.97°C above the baseline 1979-2000 (used in this graph from ECMWF) means the same as 1.5°C above the baseline 1850-1900 (pre-industrial times).
@UNFCCC
@COP28_UAE

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1699382826884555236

Main cause:
The global mean sea surface temperature increased by 0.35°C (annual average) in just one year (not entirely induced by El Niño conditions).

These extreme conditions seem to hold on, no matter what'll happen in the Niño sector.

#abruptwarming

climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

--- Thwaites Glacier ---
Story of the fingernails!

This could become the longest thread I've ever written, because I want to ask experts to respond to this, because I want to create a question-answer forum and I want to make it understandable for everyone.
Questions are welcome. The central part of the calving field exerts a force on the western flank of the glacier tongue parallel to the submarine slope, which could potentially cause serious destabilization if iceberg B45 (pinning point 9) detaches & slides towards iceberg B22a into deeper water.

Before you start reading this thread you need to sit down.
Our researched theory is simple:
"Could large icebergs, which are crossing, following & disturbing the route of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, effect the strenght & the time scale of La Niña events?"
Answer: probably! We're talking about the largest icebergs here! For example iceberg A76a.

We investigated the history, the paths & the locations of all icebergs with a minimum thickness of 300 to 800 meters & which can therefore extend up to 260 to 700 meters below the surface of the water.

In our history large icebergs from Antarctica often triggered the beginning of an ice age.
We seem to get into the same situation again. Or not?
50 icebergs are a potential risk.
40% of these icebergs will probably enter the South Atlantic within 6 months.
cryospherecomputing.com/icebergs.html The northward drift in the western part of the Weddell Sea is speeding up.
Unprecedentedly busy iceberg traffic in the Scotia Sea will possibly shut down all shipping traffic in the Scotia Sea for a couple of years & will probably even close down the entire Drake Passage.

Please keep an eye on Wiese Island.

Sudden bursts of methane (Initiate date: 20th of January).
It seems to be a +1 to +3 Mt/day event!!!!

atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/me…

@EU_Commission Concentrations at 850 hPa are also climbing beyond 2100 ppb very rapidly & very easily right above the island.

Just run the model a couple of time.
You'll notice.

Sea level rise is about to hit a rate of 2.5 mm a month (proof is coming soon).
96% caused by basal melting below both ice sheets:
4°-6°C warmer at 100m!
Antarctic surface melt is only responsible for 2% of SLR.
Oceans are increasing their contribution (thermal expansion)!

#AR7 Basal melting:

Warmer & saltier ocean water flowing through channels, fjords, troughs & subglacial lakes is responsible for the rapid warm-up of the Antarctic ice sheet (lower part).

Surface melt:

Draining of supraglacial lakes is causing a destabilization of the upper part.

To clear up all misunderstandings...

The Arctic is warming 2-3 times faster than global average if you look at 60N-90N (Arctic Ocean with neighbouring seas)
The Arctic is warming 6-8 times faster than global average if you look at 75N-90N (Arctic Ocean without neighbouring seas) When you look at 85N-90N (the pure Arctic) we have to admit the entire zone of the Arctic basin is warming +12 times faster than global average!

And we now know these conditions are comparable to the Mid-Pliocene Arctic conditions.

It doesn't matter how long it has been that earth saw these kind of CO2 concentrations in her atmosphere.

115k, 3M, 20M, 34M, 56M or 200M years ago?

More important is the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere during the last few decades.
Biggest rate in about 420M years! Because methane is getting the main contributor to global warming, it doesn't matter which GWP factors (100-year factors, 20-year factors or 10-year factor) we use to calculate the total CO2 equivalent of the main GHG's (N2O, CH4 & CO2 itself).

It looks like sea level acceleration is doubling every 3 years (5 mm/yr in 2018).
Bedrock elevation in East Antarctica is stabilizing.
We're heading to 10-13 meters of sea level rise in 2050.
Victoria Land & Wilkes Land are showing the first signs of a big sea level contribution.





Deep troughs (depths from 400 m to 2,1 km) are getting unlocked.
Ice shelves are getting very thin (no blockage).
Totten Glacier, Vanderford Glacier & David Glacier need extra attention.
Mertz Glacier seems stable. Denman Glacier & Scott Glacier are melting due to warmer water.