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Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

May 15

The Beijing summit ended with one brutal reality:

Taiwan is more vulnerable now than before the summit began -- and more than in decades

America’s power is declining since the Iran war — and world leaders are adjusting fast
-- Iran humiliated Trump’s envoys
-- Merz openly spoke of U.S. weakness
-- Now Xi pressing harder on Taiwan

US alliances are fragmenting and rivals are taking full advantage

For 30 years, the post–Cold War order rested on one assumption:

the United States could ultimately dominate escalation anywhere on earth

The Iran war shattered that belief

Not because Iran defeated America militarily.

Because it survived, gaines power, and exposed limits of US power the world has not seen since Vietnam.

The new bomb damage assessments are a geopolitical earthquake

Satellite imagery shows more damage to US bases in Gulf than Washington admitted

Leaked intelligence says Iran retains vast missile/ drone capabilities despite six weeks of bombing.

Beijing is studying every frame

Taiwan should be on higher alert tonight

Read 5 tweets

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

May 7

Marco Rubio’s 58-minute White House briefing on Iran was the most revealing statement yet from the Trump administration

Some will argue the briefing was overtaken by Trump’s later pause in Operation Freedom

That misses the point

Rubio revealed the strategic logic now driving the administration — and where escalation pressures could still lead

Here are the 5 most important signals

First: The mission is no longer being framed mainly around stopping an Iranian nuclear weapon

Rubio repeatedly described the conflict as defending the global economic order and preventing Iran from establishing a “new normal” in the Strait of Hormuz

That is a much larger objective

“We cannot live in a world where a country can decide, now we own the international shipping lane.”

Rubio repeatedly called current operations “defensive"

But he used that term to describe escalation:
• naval blockades
• sinking Iranian boats
• sanctions
• escort operations
• future retaliatory strikes

This matters because once escalation is rhetorically defined as “defense,” barriers to expansion weaken dramatically

Read 6 tweets

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

Apr 26

Why do assassination attempts keep happening in the U.S.?

Everyone is asking about motive

That’s the wrong question

For 5 years, I’ve run national surveys on support for political violence

Latest (Jan 2026):
-- tens of millions of Americans express some openness to using force in politics

This is not fringe

Here’s what matters:

Sustained violence doesn’t happen without context

It requires perceived mass approval

A tiny number of actors move when they believe masses will back them

Read 8 tweets

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

Apr 24

“Two blockades, two clocks.”
That’s how Washington is framing the Iran war.
It’s wrong.

A century of evidence shows economic pressure alone almost never forces states to concede on core security issues.

Here’s what everyone is missing:

The famous claim: sanctions work ~33% of the time.

Reality (after controlling for military force):
<5% success rate
Most “wins” weren’t sanctions at all—they were backed by coups, invasions, or bombing

Sanctions don’t coerce -- They disguise force

More pain ≠ more concession

--Cuba: 60+ years, no regime change.
--Iraq: ~50% GDP collapse in the 1990s—no surrender.
--Russia (2022–): massive sanctions, no strategic reversal.
Why?
Because scarcity strengthens regime's control over what's left

Read 5 tweets

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

Apr 22

This isn’t a price spike anymore. It’s shortages

Most analysts are still talking about prices

That’s already outdated

We are entering a much more dangerous phase

Ten days ago, I warned this was coming.

Now it’s visible:
– Jet fuel shortages in Europe
– Plastics disruptions in South Korea
– Early supply gaps across Asia

This is not isolated-- It’s the start of a global shift

Here’s the key mistake:

People think this is about higher prices

It’s not

This is the moment every blockade reaches—

When price stops mattering…

and access becomes the constraint

Read 5 tweets

Robert A. Pape

@ProfessorPape

Apr 21

The ceasefire isn’t “breaking down"

It’s doing exactly what zero-sum conflicts do:
revealing the next phase of war

What happens in the next 72 hours won’t be random.
It will follow a pattern

Here’s the framework almost no one is using

This is not a misunderstanding.

It’s a zero-sum collision of interests:

• Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz
• It cannot both keep and give up nuclear capability

And the U.S. cannot accept either without losing power

That’s why the ceasefire was always temporary

When conflicts are zero-sum, fighting doesn’t restart randomly

It escalates in steps

Each move tries to compel -- Each failure pushes both sides to the next level

This isn’t chaos -- It’s a discernable ladder

Read 7 tweets

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