Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
@james_acton32
Sep 11, 2017 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
I am highly skeptical of @benrileysmith story that Iran assisted DPRK with *recent* nuclear advances. (1/n)
telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/0…
@benrileysmith UK government is looking for evidence of foreign involvement b/c of belief that DPRK couldn't have made progress without outside help. (2/n) Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with (((James Acton)))

(((James Acton))) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @james_acton32

(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
At @CSIS @csisponi yesterday, Frank Miller engaged with my recent essay on targeting. In a collegial spirit, I'd like to respond to him here--he has mispresented me--and accept his offer to a public debate.

Link:

Here's the transcript. (1/n) csis.org/events/project…


Image
Image
Image
First, I do not claim or imply in my recent essays that changing U.S. targeting policy would induce Beijing or Moscow to make changes to theirs.

I do not believe that our making changes would induce them to do so. (2/n)

warontherocks.com/2023/11/two-my…
I believe the United States should adopt CMI targeting (Conventional Military forces and war-supporting Industry) because it would make us and our allies more secure, whether or not China or Russia changed their targeting policies (which, again, I don't think they would). (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Jun 24, 2023
<THREAD>There's been evidence-free speculation that Prigozhin may try to seize a nuclear weapon or two. I think this fear is misplaced. That said, there is a nuclear risk associated with this insurrection--one that isn't yet being discussed. (1/n)
CAVEAT: The situation on the ground in Russia is clearly very fluid and unpredictable, and I'm certainly not going to try to predict what's going to happen. Here I aim to assess what we should worry about NOT how worried we should be. (2/n)
An armed insurrection in a nuclear-armed state is clearly disquieting (even if its current leader goes around invading his neighbors). But, for two reasons, I don't see Prigozhin (who probably isn't much better BTW) seeking a nuclear weapon. (3/n)
Read 15 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Mar 28, 2023
<THREAD>China now appears to have a comprehensive early-warning system against a U.S. first strike, allowing it to operationalize launch-under-attack options.

Stay tuned a new discovery: a new-ish Chinese radar that rotates (no, not Korla).

(1/n)
As Chinese sources and the Pentagon have reported, China has been developing an early-warning (EW) system for a decade-ish so it could launch its nuclear forces before being destroyed by a US first strike (launch under attack). (2/n)

media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/20… Image
Recent analyses have suggested China’s EW system is not yet complete. According to one news story, the geostationary TJS-2, -5, and -6 satellites are for EW. If so, they'd detect US Trident-D5 launches from the pacific, BUT… (3/n)

spaceflightnow.com/2021/02/07/chi… Image
Read 23 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Mar 13, 2023
<THREAD>As @POTUS, @RishiSunak, and @AlboMP announce AUKUS submarine plan, here’s my assessment of the technical and proliferation risks.

BLUF: They’ve made serious efforts to mitigate those risks, but those that remain are real and significant.



(1/n)
Here’s the plan (in brief):
1. 🇬🇧 & 🇺🇸 deploy SSNs* in🇦🇺(from 2027)
2. 🇦🇺deploys Virginia-class SSNs purchased from 🇺🇸 (from ~2032)
3. 🇦🇺deploys AUKUS SSNs, designed and produced with UK (starting in early 2040s)

*SSN=nuclear-powered attack sub.

(2/n)

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
The expected benefits of this plan are clear and real:

👉Australia, a key US ally in the Asia Pacific, gets very capable SSNs.
👉UK enhances viability of submarine industrial base.

However, there are also risks, less obvious but still significant.

(3/n)
Read 16 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Mar 9, 2023
If these reports are correct, this program is a goat rodeo in the making. 🇦🇺, which has never operated an SSN before, now plans to operate two different classes. Plus modifying 🇬🇧-built Astute SSNs and introducing 🇺🇸 technology will add significantly to the technical risk.
Prior to today, I gave a ~50% chance of 🇦🇺 fielding SSNs by 2040, on the basis of reporting that it would go for an unmodified design. I think the odds of deploying Ozstute are now ~30% (though maybe still 50% of fielding Virginia).
Not fielding SSNs would significantly mitigate the negative nonproliferation consequences of AUKUS though!

carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/21/why…
Read 4 tweets
(((James Acton))) Profile picture
Feb 23, 2023
Last week, Australian FM @SenatorWong refused to say explicitly that B-52s visiting Australia do not carry nukes, causing a minor furor.

The thing is that, best I can tell, official, stated U.S. policy is that bombers are not loaded with nukes. (1/n)

breakingdefense.com/2023/02/austra…
Some history. Back in the 1960s, the U.S. did keep aircraft--B-52s actually--loaded with nuclear weapons on airborne alert. This posture had obvious disadvantages as became apparent when... you know... aircraft crashed. (2/n)
Following the Thule crash, airborne alerts were abruptly ended. Instead, strategic bombers were kept on strip alert, loaded with nuclear weapons and ready to take off promptly. (3/n)

fas.org/blogs/security…
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

Become Premium to read this thread!

Read all the old archives from Twitter by becoming our Premium member for only $3/month! Read more »

Become Premium

Already a Premium member? Login to access this thread

:(