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(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Jul 28

https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1948767103869235374

On Friday, I argued in @ForeignPolicy that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous.

The same day, the normally excellent @IgnatiusPost amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narratives.

Let's take a look...

(Links below). (1/n)

https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1948767103869235374

First off, here are links for my @ForeignPolicy and @IgnatiusPost's @washingtonpost piece.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/ira…

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…

(2/n)

@ForeignPolicy @IgnatiusPost @washingtonpost Ignatius's oped is written as if it's a news story. The "news" in this case is that--SURPRISE!--an Israeli source backed up claims by the Israeli government! (3/n)

Read 12 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Jul 21

🧵How much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program?

An analysis of Friday's reporting of the U.S. government assessment. I'll focus on the @nytimes, which was clearer than the earlier but confused @NBCNews story. (1/n)

U.S. officials continue to argue that it would take Iran years to rebuild the facilities that were hit. That seems right to me.

But a key question is this: How long would it take Iran to build the bomb? (2/n)

Attempts to play down the survival of most or all of Iran's HEU are comical.

It may be true that "only" the HEU at Isfahan is accessible--but that's almost all of it! (3/n)

Read 13 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Jul 9

🧵Introducing optimal deterrence.

Here's my proposed U.S. nuclear strategy for managing escalation, arms racing, and proliferation with two nuclear peers, published through @CFR_org.

Health warning: If you like counterforce, take a DEEP breath before reading on. (1/n)

The U.S. faces a security environment that's bad and getting worse. There's an emerging bipartisan consensus that, in response, the U.S. needs more nukes. The justification stems from the current policy of "counterforce" targeting. (2/n)

cfr.org/report/optimal…

The logic of counterforce targeting is merciless, however, and will catalyze an expensive, tension-generating, and futile three-ways arms race in which the United States will fail to achieve the nuclear superiority it seeks. (3/n)

Read 10 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Jun 26

https://twitter.com/DNIGabbard/status/1937934899710710170

How effective were strikes against Iran?

U.S. and Israeli officials stress how long it would take Iran to rebuild its previous nuclear program.

But there's a MUCH more important issue: How long it would take Iran to get the bomb? For that, a small program would suffice. (1/n)

https://twitter.com/DNIGabbard/status/1937934899710710170

As in yesterday’s Axios article, these officials stress the damage done to Iran’s major declared facilities.

But the main issue isn't whether the U.S. & Israel severely damaged what they attacked; I'm sure they did. It's what they did NOT attack. (2/n)

axios.com/2025/06/25/ira…

I'm sure Israel did indeed destroy "several" centrifuge production lines.

But what about the stockpile of centrifuge components that Iran has ALREADY produced?

Israel has not claimed to have hit them--which suggests Iran could rebuild a new enrichment plant. (3/n)

Read 11 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Jun 24

How far has military action set back Iran's nuclear program?

Netanyahu says 2-3 years.

JD Vance says "substantially."

In @politico, I argue that Iran could build the bomb in a year. And it now has much stronger reasons to do so. (1/n)

Iran still has its own nuclear triad: highly enriched uranium, centrifuge components, and expertise.

That's right.

A war waged nominally for nonproliferation has left Iran with several bombs worth of un-safeguarded highly enriched uranium. (2/n)

politico.com/news/magazine/…

IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi has indicated, pretty explicitly, it was removed by Iran to locations unknown before the war began. (3/n)

iaea.org/newscenter/sta…

Read 7 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Jun 17

The claim that Iran had 60 days to make a deal is disingenuous since the United States was hardly ready, and did not conduct, an intensive, detailed negotiation. (1/n)

For example, there were times when Iran was willing to talk but the United States wasn't (presumably because it needed more time to prepare).

reuters.com/world/middle-e…

For some time, the United States seemed to vacillate on whether it would be prepared to sign a deal that allowed any enrichment in Iran. (3/n)

thehill.com/homenews/admin…

Read 5 tweets

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