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@benrileysmith

@benrileysmith

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Jun 26

https://twitter.com/DNIGabbard/status/1937934899710710170

How effective were strikes against Iran?

U.S. and Israeli officials stress how long it would take Iran to rebuild its previous nuclear program.

But there's a MUCH more important issue: How long it would take Iran to get the bomb? For that, a small program would suffice. (1/n)

https://twitter.com/DNIGabbard/status/1937934899710710170

As in yesterday’s Axios article, these officials stress the damage done to Iran’s major declared facilities.

But the main issue isn't whether the U.S. & Israel severely damaged what they attacked; I'm sure they did. It's what they did NOT attack. (2/n)

axios.com/2025/06/25/ira…

I'm sure Israel did indeed destroy "several" centrifuge production lines.

But what about the stockpile of centrifuge components that Iran has ALREADY produced?

Israel has not claimed to have hit them--which suggests Iran could rebuild a new enrichment plant. (3/n)

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@james_acton32

Jun 24

How far has military action set back Iran's nuclear program?

Netanyahu says 2-3 years.

JD Vance says "substantially."

In @politico, I argue that Iran could build the bomb in a year. And it now has much stronger reasons to do so. (1/n)

Iran still has its own nuclear triad: highly enriched uranium, centrifuge components, and expertise.

That's right.

A war waged nominally for nonproliferation has left Iran with several bombs worth of un-safeguarded highly enriched uranium. (2/n)

politico.com/news/magazine/…

IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi has indicated, pretty explicitly, it was removed by Iran to locations unknown before the war began. (3/n)

iaea.org/newscenter/sta…

Read 7 tweets

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@james_acton32

Jun 17

The claim that Iran had 60 days to make a deal is disingenuous since the United States was hardly ready, and did not conduct, an intensive, detailed negotiation. (1/n)

For example, there were times when Iran was willing to talk but the United States wasn't (presumably because it needed more time to prepare).

reuters.com/world/middle-e…

For some time, the United States seemed to vacillate on whether it would be prepared to sign a deal that allowed any enrichment in Iran. (3/n)

thehill.com/homenews/admin…

Read 5 tweets

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@james_acton32

Jun 16

🧵The stated goal of Israel’s military campaign is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. With operations ongoing, it's too early to reach a conclusion.

But I can highlight outstanding questions that will determine whether Israel will achieve its nuclear goal. (1/n)

Let's focus on three areas:
👉Fordow
👉Enriched uranium stockpile
👉Centrifuge components

BLUF: As of now, key facilities, material, and equipment are--or are likely--intact.

CAVEAT: The situation is fluid and uncertain. (2/n)

FORDOW is an enrichment plant buried in a mountain. While there are reports of some strikes against the facility, IAEA DG @rafaelmgrossi reports this morning that no damage is visible. (3/n)

iaea.org/newscenter/sta…

Read 14 tweets

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@james_acton32

Sep 25, 2024

🧵Initial thoughts on Russia's new nuclear doctrine, based on a machine translation of Putin's comments. (I have not seen the doctrine yet; my assessment may change when I do).

BLUF: It's not tied as directly to the Ukraine war as others think. (1/n)

kremlin.ru/events/preside…

Here's the key passage (thanks, @ChatGPTapp).

(2/n)

@ChatGPTapp As has been reported, Putin is saying he might use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear weapon state that attacked Russia in concert with a nuclear-weapon state.

This mirror U.S. declaratory policy until 2009 (I think), which contained a similar provision. (3/n)

Read 13 tweets

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@james_acton32

Aug 5, 2024

https://x.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1815783366752432222

This thread is a transparent attempt by Colby to foreclose scrutiny of his behavior around the insurrection on Jan 6, 2021. I want to explain what he did and why it shouldn't be ignored.

(Like all my tweets, these are my personal views.)

(1/n)

https://x.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1815783366752432222

My criticism of Colby is nothing to do with his conservative views. We were friends—good friends—for years. We regularly had lunch or dinner. I went to Rio for his wedding. He came to mine. Throughout that time, we disagreed a lot about policy—domestic and foreign—but...

(2/n)

… we discussed those disagreements in a good-faith, productive way. We found common ground on nuclear policy and wrote together. I read part of his book manuscript and he thanked me in his acknowledgments.

(3/n)

Read 19 tweets

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