(THREAD) It's now almost certain Papadopoulos *wore a wire* during the last 90+ days. Here are the implications. Hope you'll read and share.
1/ The FBI arrested Papadopoulos on July 27th, 2017.
2/ Papadopoulos plead guilty to Making False Statements on October 5th, 2017.
3/ At the time Papadopoulos pled guilty, the government requested that his guilty plea be "sealed"—invisible to the general public.
4/ Here's the relevant language:
5/ "Proactive cooperator" in this context means someone who is willing and able to wear a wire to help the government get more information.
6/ So Papadopoulos was wired up, at the latest, between October 5 and today, October 30. But he could have started cooperating before then.
7/ Prosecutors often require a defendant to perform cooperative services for the government well in *advance* of his or her formal plea.
8/ The reason for this is that—via both "proffer" and sometimes actual performance—a defendant must show they're of value to the government.
9/ So there is *every* reason to think that Papadopoulos was wired for sound not long after his arrest on July 27th, 2017 at Dulles airport.
10/ For Papadopoulos to get his October 5th plea, one of two things had to be true: (a) the feds had already got good sound from him; or...
11/ ...(b) he'd made a sufficient proffer establishing that he *could* get good sound for them—valuable evidence—shortly after October 5th.
12/ If the former, Papadopoulos gave Mueller evidence he now holds that's of critical importance to his investigation—sound from higher-ups.
13/ If the latter, it means Papadopoulos convinced law enforcement that he *still has access to people who were/are high up on Team Trump*.
14/ Here's the KEY point: EITHER WAY, it means the White House is dissembling when it says that Papadopoulos was a minor Team Trump figure.
15/ In fact, Papadopoulos still had *consequential access to top Trump officials* this *October*—18+ months after he came aboard Team Trump.
16/ So news of "proactive cooperation" means Mueller has more than we know *and* Papadopoulos was *far* more critical than we're being told.
17/ And if he was more involved than we know, the likelihood is that he pled to Making False Statements—and not more—for the sake of a deal.
18/ In other words—contrary to what some say now—it's likely Papadopoulos did more and told the feds more than his current charge suggests.
19/ Note his affidavit actually *says*, "This does not include all the facts known to me regarding this offense." And of *course* that's so.
20/ Papadopoulos would have had to promise the feds a *senior* Trump official in order to warrant getting a plea deal now. Page wouldn't do.
21/ (I'm putting aside the possibility, admittedly a slim one, that what Mueller wanted and Papadopoulos offered was just Russian sources.)
22/ (I doubt any Russians would've spoken to Papadopoulos post-Russia probe—but if so, he certainly had a nice email contact list to offer.)
23/ So if Page wouldn't have been a good enough "get" for the feds to wire Papadopoulos and give him an early plea deal, who would've been?
24/ Well, consider all this—Sam Clovis had hired him; current AG Jeff Sessions was his supervisor; and Paul Manafort was another supervisor.
25/ Would Mueller have used Papadopoulos to get Manafort, who he had on other charges? No—unless Manafort could give good sound on others.
26/ So the two most likely people for Papadopoulos to have spoken to over the last 90 days while wearing a wire are (a) Clovis (b) Sessions.
27/ I've said here Sessions is one of the key targets of the Russia probe—though now that he's AG and "recused" he might avoid Papadopoulos.
28/ So far and away the most likely "get" off Papadopoulos would be Sam Clovis—Trump's liaison to his Foreign Policy/National Security team.
29/ It's worth noting that (a) Clovis went to ground months ago, and (b) Trump offered Clovis a cushy job he had no business at all getting.
30/ Trump nominated Clovis—who is *not a scientist*—to be top scientist at the USDA. He's awaiting confirmation now. farmfutures.com/usda/controver…
31/ Trump announced his plan to give Clovis a key job 6 days before Papadopoulos was arrested—did he know something? cnn.com/2017/07/21/pol…
32/ Well, here's one thing Trump *definitely* knew—Clovis knows *everything* Trump communicated to his National Security Advisory Committee.
33/ As Trump's liaison to his NatSec team, Clovis could testify about what information Trump took out of and put into that key committee.
34/ Clovis would know what info Trump had and how he'd processed it—for instance—when he ordered the NatSec team to change the GOP platform.
35/ Clovis would know of any info being reported from Sergey Kislyak to the NatSec team (e.g. Page and Gordon) and thereby to Trump himself.
36/ In essence, Clovis is almost certainly—along with Manafort and Flynn, the first already indicted—*the* key witness for indicting Trump.
37/ And Mike Flynn already offered to flip—whereas we don't know Sam Clovis did or has—so Mueller would want Papadopoulos to access Clovis.
38/ The fact that Papadopoulos was cooperating and likely wearing a wire means today is the *best* things will ever get for Trump on Russia.
39/ That is to say, *every day* from here on out will be *worse* for Trump in terms of impeachment and removal—whether he knows it or not.
40/ I can assure you the amount of intel Mueller already has *dwarfs* what we know—and what he *has or will have* is enough to impeach. /end
PS/ NOTE: The "proactive cooperator" language is from a July Motion to Seal—so Papadopoulos has cooperated since then (h/t @kurteichenwald).
PS2/ A defendant can start cooperating *before* a Motion to Seal an arrest record—so Papadopoulos began cooperating in July *at the latest*.
PS3/ The next thing you'll hear here, then shortly in major media: Trump sending Papadopoulos to Israel in April 2016 to talk Russia policy.
PS4/ Trump transitioned Papadopoulos into a *Russian policy* spokesman *after* learning he was a Kremlin intermediary—he *hadn't* been that.
PS5/ So Trump *positioned* Papadopoulos—once he *knew* he was a Kremlin intermediary—as a key mouthpiece on his no-Russian-sanctions policy.
PS6/ That fact *alone* establishes Trump was using Papadopoulos—quite mindfully—to communicate his sanctions plan to Putin and the Kremlin.
PS7/ Remember, we discovered early in 2017 that Trump entered office with a "secret plan"—splashy quotes, but true—to drop Russia sanctions.
PS8/ And Trump's "secret plan" on Russian sanctions was that he was going to—for the first time in U.S. history—drop sanctions unilaterally.
PS9/ Understand, too, the news Papadopoulos flipped and wore a wire will cause ALL lower-level Trump aides to run to the FBI trying to flip.
PS10/ Ignore the "volunteer" line on Papadopoulos—he was *recruited*. The NatSec team expected to be paid. It disbanded when they *weren't*.
NOTE/ As I said yesterday to a poster below, there are other means to use a CI to covertly intercept inculpatory evidence (e.g., via email).
NOTE2/ CIs often must give law enforcement access to their social media, email, and texts. CIs then use these tools to gather more evidence.
NOTE3/ So as I said yesterday, today being "wired" can be literal (a microphone on or near the body) or figurative (with the same result).
NOTE4/ We know Papadopoulos had better email than live access to top Trump aides—so "proactive cooperation" would've included email contact.
NOTE5/ So it's *certain* Papadopoulos was used to covertly intercept inculpatory evidence—*almost* certain a wire would've been part of it.
NOTE5 (cont.)/ And when I refer to "a microphone near the body" as constituting a digital-age "wiring," that would include cell intercepts.

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More from @SethAbramson

Jan 17,
(🔐) ICYMI: The new PROOF report on Sen. Chuck Grassley has gone viral.

It contains info on Grassley’s role in the events of Insurrection Eve that most Americans haven’t seen.

“The Coming Collapse of Trump’s January 6 Conspiracy, Part 4: Chuck Grassley”: sethabramson.substack.com/p/new-the-comi…
(PS) Right now I’m working on a shocking follow-up to this article. By “shocking” I mean that it’s literally full of things that I didn’t previously know and am shocked by. Its focus will be not just on Grassley and—critically—his staff, but also on Clarence Thomas’s wife Ginni.
(PS2) I want to add how thrilled I am at how large the PROOF community is getting. The comment sections are so vibrant—with new leads offered and great comments like this: “Grassley’s statement could’ve been the exact reason Pence didn’t get in the Secret Service car [on 1/6].”
Read 5 tweets
Jan 16,
(🔐) NEW: PROOF readers have been asking for this report for a long time—and rightly so.

On January 6, 2021, Sen. Grassley was third in line to the presidency—and is a more important witness than Kevin McCarthy.

I hope you’ll subscribe, read and RETWEET. sethabramson.substack.com/p/new-the-comi…
1/ Americans already know the information House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy would testify to before the House January 6 Committee (though to be clear, PROOF still believes he must be subpoenaed and deposed).

We know what he’ll say because he’s said it publicly at least twice.
2/ CNN reports McCarthy revealed the content of his January 6 call with Trump both in a January 12, 2021 radio interview *and* in a transcribed GOP caucus meeting—and we also have testimony from another Republican rep, who McCarthy described the call to shortly after it happened.
Read 22 tweets
Jan 15,
Rep. Kinzinger (@AdamKinzinger), note too that in the video Cruz shows it's domestic terrorist Tim Gionet—who was subsequently arrested for storming the Capitol, and from his own livestream always intended to do so—who starts the "Fed!" chant Cruz now deems inculpatory of *Epps*.
PS/ And @AdamKinzinger, PROOF published more sections from the Gionet-Epps exchange that explain *why* Gionet began a "Fed!" chant. Epps had already mentioned storming the Capitol to Gionet on camera—before which Gionet tried to stop him *because he didn't want the words filmed*.
PS2/ So we *know*—the evidence confirms—that the "Fed!" chant was launched by a group that was *planning* to storm the Capitol on January 6 and didn't want Epps (who was not in their group) giving up the plan in a livestream in a way that would lead to a law enforcement response.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 15,
If you follow the far right closely, you’ve noticed that with greater and greater frequency it is employing a particular disinformation technique on a key topic: it repeatedly—and falsely—says “the left” wants “civil war” as a means of moving the Overton Window in that direction.
(PS) Needless to say, these far-right media personalities would retreat to their bunkers or take a long vacation overseas if there were ever to be widespread civil unrest in America. They’re stoking violent fervor on the right because it gets them attention and makes them money.
(PS2) Also, I guess it goes without saying that what Jones is putting out in this video is somewhere two football fields beyond preposterous. The notion that the FBI whips up an investigation and arrest as a 24-hour “quick response” to something it sees on TV is almost hilarious.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14,
I wrote a book on the first Russian invasion of Ukraine (Proof of Corruption, 2020), then took to Twitter to say that the evidence we see now—and all we know about Putin—suggests he’ll invade again. For some reason, folks got angry. Well, see what happens. cnn.com/2022/01/14/pol…
(PS) Putin’s scheme in Ukraine is *so transparently obvious* that not only is it apocalyptically condescending that he’s going through certain motions to pretend he won’t invade, but it’s almost *as* condescending that the federal government keeps telling us this can be avoided.
(PS2) The sort of actions that would be required to prevent Russia from invading Europe for the second time in a decade are just the sort of actions no one in the federal government is willing to take. NATO should have been *melodramatically expanding itself* this entire decade.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 12,
(🔐) PROOF: "The Story Behind the 'Ray Epps' Conspiracy Theory Now Burning Through Congress and Far-Right Social Media"

This is both absolutely unbelievable *and* absolutely believable. The depths insurrectionists sink to to cover their trail are amazing. sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-story-be…
1/ The key point here is that Ray Epps was *chosen*—he was selected to be the target of this conspiracy theory, and *not* for the reasons the insurrectionists say. (This is why the conspiracy theory makes no sense; it started with a need to "get" Epps, not any coherent evidence.)
2/ The reason the *intent* behind the "Ray Epps" conspiracy theory has to be understood is that otherwise it will seem like the insurrectionists—and those among their leaders in Congress who are now parroting the theory in hearings—are merely delusional. No, it's worse than that.
Read 8 tweets

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