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Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
@patio11
Nov 27, 2017 • 8 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Bitcoin as the world's biggest game of hot potato: prestonbyrne.com/2017/11/26/the… @prestonjbyrne

Liquidity crunch catalyzed by any disruption in the price would cause a bank run.
Bitcoiners think that they're structurally immune to bank runs because they repeat "we are not fractional reserves" as an article of faith. That is almost certainly false.

Most distressing bit in that article, which I cannot verify but which I do not find implausible:

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More from @patio11

Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jan 30
Robinhood talks a good game about democratizing access to investing but product- and marketing wise runs a casino that is licensed as a broker/dealer.
PDT stands for “pattern day trading” and the PDT rules were imposed after the Dot Com bubble to decrease risk to both small-dollar retail users and the brokerages that accept their business from day trading.
PDT only applies to accounts with less than $25k of capital, i.e. smallest retail traders. You get a mark every time you have trades in two directions in same symbol in a day. Buy and sell Microsoft on same day, for example, one mark.
Read 7 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jan 27
Well looks like I ended up with more relatable transpacific banking influencer content.

You either know if you’re in or you’re out for the rest of this thread.

It begins with the balance of one of my Japanese accounts suddenly going to zero, and me calling the bank.
Bank CS: *We do the KYC dance.* Oh really sorry McKenzie-sama but uh this is not an issue that this office can help you out over the phone. Monday morning please call your branch.
Me: Could you hum a few bars please.
Bank CS: I regret I cannot.
Me: To put my mind at ease prior
… to that call, can the bank confirm that it knows the source of the withdrawal? For example, was it the bank?
Bank CS: I believe I can confirm the bank is extremely aware of the source of the withdrawal. I regret that…
Me: Nope totally understood I’ll call the branch. Thanks.
Read 30 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jan 24
One of the reasons why PDF files that purport to be bank statements are believed to be reliable is that all serious adults understand that if you *$#(%( with one for advantage over a counterparty, you will be prosecuted, with very high probability.

See linked thread.
A thing you'll often read in narratives of frauds (Lying for Money has several, and it is a rich genre in the bookstore of your choice) is that the fraudsters don't start out, on day one, doing this.

But after you've done something like that... you're done. Discovery is basically inevitable. Once discovered, at least one party to the fraud keeps extremely good records, which will be viewed as dispositive.
Read 15 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jan 23
The Sort, tech industry hiring edition:

If you can have a sensible conversation with an engineer about their work, capitalism says you’re eligible for forty jobs that pay better than being a recruiter.

Solve for equilibrium, as they say.
Why does the industry keep stepping on this rake? In part because if *has tried* to get engineers / EMs to sit down with a pack of resumes or LinkedIn profiles and sift through to find the highest priority candidates.

The first day you ask you’ll get takers. The second less.
And the third day, the third day you decide “You know, this sure would be a lot better attended if we had some junior employees who’d feel lucky to work here, and who would diligently cook eggs to order if we asked them to.”
Read 9 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jan 21
“What choices would you make in a world where the great and the good comprehensively underrate not merely the future path of AI but also realized capabilities of, say, one to two years ago.” remains a good intuition pump and source of strategies you can use.
You wouldn’t think that people would default to believing something ridiculous which can be disproved by typing into a publicly accessible computer program for twenty seconds.

Many people do not have an epistemic strategy which includes twenty seconds of experimentation.
Specific example with particulars stripped to avoid dunking:

Me: I am beginning to make decisions assuming supermajority of future readers are not unassisted humans.
Them: Hah like AI could usefully read an essay of yours.
Me: *chat transcript* I’d give this kid an interview.
Read 5 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jan 19
Correspondent: *situation* So how is it that my credit card at A shows a payment has posted but by checking account at B shows it as not withdrawn yet?
Me: That’s usual behavior for U.S. bank transfers. Each is an extension of credit, with various risk controls.
And now I’ll continue this with a character.

X: But the money is in two places at once. It cannot be in two places at once.
Me: Extension of credit creates money, yes.
X: Good thing this only happens for credit cards and not for checking accounts.
Me: Built into every account.
X: But a checking account isn’t a credit product.
Me: Oh no it is.
X: What I didn’t apply for credit.
Me: Try to remember what information was on the form you filled out when you opened it.
X: That was for KYC though.
Me: Also a purpose of that form.
Read 6 tweets

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