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Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
@patio11
Dec 1, 2017 • 23 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Some people really benefit from hearing advice that everyone knows, for the same reason we keep schools open despite every subject in them having been taught before.

In that spirit, here's some quick Things Many People Find Too Obvious To Have Told You Already.
Your idea is not valuable, at all. All value is in the execution. You think you are an exception; you are not. You should not insist on an NDA to talk about it; nobody serious will engage in contract review over an idea, and this will mark you as clueless.

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More from @patio11

Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Oct 16
Still working on a few essays about what I learned on using LLMs for coding but if you want a sneak peak, Complex Systems this week discusses the game I made in some detail.

I’m probably adding one essay to the series on LLMs for taxes.
It feels a bit weird to need to continue saying this, but yes, LLMs are obviously capable of doing material work in production, including in domains where answers are right or wrong, including where there is a penalty for being wrong. Of course they are.
“Why?”

Because a lot of discourse weights people and actors heavily where they cannot be right or wrong in any way that matters, and where correctness does not materially result in a different incentive for them.
Read 6 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Oct 9
So October 15th, the extended US tax deadline, is just around the corner, and I have some observations which are more about LLM progress than taxes.

Background: many people professionally involved with LLMs estimate 2026-2028 as the year where one can get an LLM to "do taxes."
I have a fairly complicated situation and have put more of my points into tax procedure than many AI researchers, and I did not previously expect to actually have this capability available in 2028.

On basis of experience with review, but not full execution, rethinking that.
I think the most likely form factor for actually deploying this in the real world is a software company which integrates LLMs as a component but also has a lot of special sauce.

Be that as it may, what I actually had available yesterday was the standard chat interface.
Read 33 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Oct 5
I think the economic logic of this is inevitable, in that you’ll ~need video to get your N+1 marketing post through the noise on social media even as a Taylor Swift, and your choices are either a $100k shoot *per post* or a relatively junior employee with some taste.
Also expect the friendly neighborhood barbecue joint to get the same-y Madison Avenue look on their ads versus the Comic Sans and pink aesthetic that they might otherwise have ended up with.
“Is that shoot really $100k?”

It probably is if you do it the way her media operation would do it. You can get it done scrappily for like $4-10k. Partly that’s because major brands with professional review teams are buying a different artifact than “Just the file please.”
Read 5 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Sep 4
Listening to a podcast (Trillions) a guest made an interesting claim:

Guest: You know when you swipe a card at [coffee shop] part of the fee pays for your ability to reverse the transaction with the coffee shop. But come on, no one reverses transactions with [coffee shops].
I have removed the name of the coffee shop so that no one believes I am commenting on private financial details when I say: oh you sweet summer child.
You and I will likely go through life having very few arguments with baristas. Baristas do not experience their lives as including very few arguments with customers.
Read 10 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Aug 3
The existence of YouTube does not make reading and writing less valuable. It gives children a constant companion who is responsive, preternaturally so, to their desires and curiosity.
(I devote a bit of brain space—not too much but I pray not to little—to making sure that constant companion does not make the entire world look like a pale imitation of itself, which would be wrong but could easily look accurate to the subjective experience of a child.)
“Any parenting tips?”

I do not have the constant fights about screen time some parents report, do not know how much of that is due to decisions I’ve made, and have one regret: we went two years without a TV due to moving and I should have made that permanent versus “completing.”
Read 5 tweets
Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Jul 29
This letter is what happens when a credit card PM misunderestimates how much of an adverse selection effect they have in a new portfolio.
(In particular note the cap on cash back and the carveout for particular transaction types which some users are able to generate arbitrarily high amounts of or would naturally have arbitrarily high amounts relative to “normal” CC use.)
“How does this happen?”

Credit card PMs are extremely aware that there are multiple different personas for credit card use out there. One of them has a name in various banks, but you can think of them as Mercenary Financial Enthusiast.
Read 15 tweets

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