1/ There's a concept known as financial compounding, but most people don't know about intellectual compounding. Buffett and Munger employed this to great effect and to accumulate mental models such that they can make large decisions quickly. Intuition is simply reading a lot.
2/ This allows people to convert typically slow thinking and bad fast thinking (bad intuition) into good intuition. In academic literature this is known as Type 1 and Type 2 thinking. Most people don't accumulate enough of knowledge the tree.
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1/3ac highly leveraged out of the 2018 bear market, did well, and truly believed their own "supercycle memes" right into an inflationary bear market. Everyone else that understand inflation and bear markets dumped on the market causing luna/terra/celsius and now 3ac. More to come
2/ inflation bear market + 4 year cycles + tokens that are highly hypothecated causes tons of explicit and hidden leverage in the system. One player getting taken out cascades further and further. This is likely not going to end til late this year or early next year.
3/ One of the things about defi is that it added a lot more leverage in the system. wrapped btc and others for the chosen platforms L1, lets the tokens leverage to ridiculous heights that are way more than the L1 is worth, leverage up, leverage down.
Spy 500 officially in a bear market now. Selling will accelerate. CTA hedge funds ETFs. Average inflationary draw down 38% maximum 75%. Average time to recovery to at the highs 9 years. Poll below on nov was the top enjoy shorting the highest PS and PE ratio tech companies.
Short snowflake, crowdstrike, Shopify, apple, BTC. Just like we had ridiculous things like Rivian trading at 100B, can have also shoot to the downside. All the PE ratios that you see for typical lows for cloud companies are not backtested for the 1970s.
If you’re reading forecasts that things can’t go down more then they’re back testing for 2018, 2015. Last time this happened was 1970s, read through Goldman’s research.
1/ People in the bay area are confused by #miamitechweek. The miami tech experiment was suppose to have died down by now but they don't understand that the bay areas is unbundling from physical location including:
2/ Cities are transitioning by decoupling from physical locations and having many of the benefits on the cloud including
* Unbundling of expertise to location
* Unbundling of workers to location
* Unbundling of friend network to location
* Unbundling of interest to location
3/ Industry towns are based on a multi sided marketplace. Expertise, workers, friends, and common interest for new explorations. This is mostly mapped to a physical social graph that someone can tap into.
Five things make this possible:
* Zoom as clearing house for investments
* Housing policies in the Miami-Texas region
* Community with culture
* Startup incubators backed by seasoned operators
* Ambitious local talent
2/ The dynamics of investing has changed. SV used to be the local clearing house where everyone has to go to SV for 2-3 weeks to raise their rounds and even to stay to build relationships for investors.
3/ What ends up happening in practice is that people end up moving to the bay area. However, the net migration of companies has stopped. YC batches went from 80% in the bay area to now 5% in the bay area throughout the pandemic. I've been investing in YC comp pre and post.
1. Alibaba/Amazon is search oriented and keyword oriented vs picture/video/stories oriented. Ali Express was beaten country by country except Russia by Wish due to this difference in UX. This is powered by a technical engine that's a better version of google adsense.
2/ They launched branded goods which now gets refurbished goods from within the U.S./Europe. This is similar to TJ Max, Ross Dress for Less, Outlet stores. Their selection will only expand over time. Wish will eat this category more and more.
3/ They are running one of the largest buy now pay later in the Europe/U.S. and will likely launch its own fintech products. This is focused on the unbanked markets. Wish can launch same thing as Square and Paypal because they serve different markets.
1/ Bitcoin has now captured the imagination as digital gold, but what happens when it becomes 1 trillion or 6 trillion dollars? What happens to the security and the electricity costs since 70% of the hash power is concentrated in low electricity cost places, like China/Iceland.
2/ In Nakamoto consensus, out of 100 nodes, there needs to be a minimum of 51 nodes that are bad actors to reverse the transaction history of Bitcoin. Also, there is a little known attack called a partitioning attack.
3/ A partitioning attack is an attack where state actors collude to seal off the internet so that geographically isolated nodes are only gossiping among themselves. Anything that’s geographically centralized is exposed to these attacks as it scales to trillions of dollars.