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Sizhao Yang Profile picture
Sizhao Yang
@zaoyang
Now: investor/entrepreneur. Previously: Farmville Kaspa $kas
16 subscribers
Jun 16, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/3ac highly leveraged out of the 2018 bear market, did well, and truly believed their own "supercycle memes" right into an inflationary bear market. Everyone else that understand inflation and bear markets dumped on the market causing luna/terra/celsius and now 3ac. More to come 2/ inflation bear market + 4 year cycles + tokens that are highly hypothecated causes tons of explicit and hidden leverage in the system. One player getting taken out cascades further and further. This is likely not going to end til late this year or early next year.
May 20, 2022 • 21 tweets • 9 min read
Spy 500 officially in a bear market now. Selling will accelerate. CTA hedge funds ETFs. Average inflationary draw down 38% maximum 75%. Average time to recovery to at the highs 9 years. Poll below on nov was the top enjoy shorting the highest PS and PE ratio tech companies. ImageImageImageImage Short snowflake, crowdstrike, Shopify, apple, BTC. Just like we had ridiculous things like Rivian trading at 100B, can have also shoot to the downside. All the PE ratios that you see for typical lows for cloud companies are not backtested for the 1970s.
Aug 9, 2021 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
1/ People in the bay area are confused by #miamitechweek. The miami tech experiment was suppose to have died down by now but they don't understand that the bay areas is unbundling from physical location including:

* Expertise
* Co-workers
* Friends
* Interest network

👇 2/ Cities are transitioning by decoupling from physical locations and having many of the benefits on the cloud including

* Unbundling of expertise to location
* Unbundling of workers to location
* Unbundling of friend network to location
* Unbundling of interest to location
Mar 30, 2021 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
I'm moving to Miami from the bay area.

Five things make this possible:
* Zoom as clearing house for investments
* Housing policies in the Miami-Texas region
* Community with culture
* Startup incubators backed by seasoned operators
* Ambitious local talent 2/ The dynamics of investing has changed. SV used to be the local clearing house where everyone has to go to SV for 2-3 weeks to raise their rounds and even to stay to build relationships for investors.
Dec 31, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1. Alibaba/Amazon is search oriented and keyword oriented vs picture/video/stories oriented. Ali Express was beaten country by country except Russia by Wish due to this difference in UX. This is powered by a technical engine that's a better version of google adsense. 2/ They launched branded goods which now gets refurbished goods from within the U.S./Europe. This is similar to TJ Max, Ross Dress for Less, Outlet stores. Their selection will only expand over time. Wish will eat this category more and more.
Nov 1, 2019 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Bitcoin has now captured the imagination as digital gold, but what happens when it becomes 1 trillion or 6 trillion dollars? What happens to the security and the electricity costs since 70% of the hash power is concentrated in low electricity cost places, like China/Iceland. 2/ In Nakamoto consensus, out of 100 nodes, there needs to be a minimum of 51 nodes that are bad actors to reverse the transaction history of Bitcoin. Also, there is a little known attack called a partitioning attack.
Mar 19, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
What's the name of your company? bitcoin
What market are you addressing? Central banks and currencies.
What problem are you solving? Central bank manipulation of fiat
Who are your competitors? USD and gold
How are you going to grow? Forums, mailing lists, twitter How much are you looking for? 0
How big do you think this can be? 6 trillion dollars maybe more
What is your solution to this problem? Solving Byzantine general's problem, a theoretical problem and using difficulty adjustments to solve for inflation
Why now? 2008 crisis
Dec 27, 2018 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
1/ What are the implicit and explicit strategies that crypto projects are taking? What can we see about 2019 to 2021? 2/ First we have to see the fundamentals view of money, the layers of crypto, publication vs validation, verticals, and the relationship between different chains.
Dec 19, 2018 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/ What is the uniqueness about Spotify and the context in which it started? What was the conventional wisdom and how did it differ? 2/ The time was after Napster died, Lala died (got acquired by Apple), Kazaa got sued out of existence, and the perception was that it was just a license problem.
Dec 17, 2018 • 38 tweets • 7 min read
1/ What are the experiments from crypto in 2015 to 2018? What are the underlying beliefs and thesis that were validated or invalidated? Feel free to add your own. 2/ The beginning was the ultimate OG Bitcoin with Nakamoto Consensus. The underlying assumptions were private key = value (bearer shares), security at all cost, domain specific validation (UTXO validation), single player mode (store of value), and a community around collectible.
Dec 15, 2018 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
1/ What are uncommon skills that are not commoditized by the industrialization of education. In other words, common core and education is simply democratizing to everyone. What are the areas that can be taught to children that are not common or contrary to your reptilian brain. 2/ With ever more education going online, more competition, the common question is how do you guide your own career and how do you educate for the next generation?
Dec 15, 2018 • 28 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Update 2018. What are some ideas that can be popular in the next 10 to 15 years? This is a thought experiment. Please feel free to add your own. 2/ Maker Dai and Compound Finance will have an outsized influence in wrapping value, lending, and providing key use cases in crypto. This linked with WBTC, is the early use cases of interoperable value within crypto.
Nov 13, 2018 • 30 tweets • 8 min read
1/ What are articles, books, concepts, courses, articles that have been interesting for 2018? Feel free to add your own. 2/ The retirement crisis talking about how baby boomer spending will fall off a cliff and won't be replaced by millenial spending even though the population of millenials is higher:
Nov 5, 2018 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
2008: financial crisis
2009: lower interest rate to 0, CB buy financial assets
2016: financial assets inflated, massive gap between rich and poor, populism rise, trump gets elected
2018: interest rate rise, gap down in financial assets, real estate
2019: fill in the blank: Option 1: real estate gaps down, equities gap down, corporate junk bonds gaps down, quantitative easing again begins.
Sep 3, 2018 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/ There's a concept called "high agency" people, which is the attitude behind "Aut inveniam viam aut faciam." "I shall either find a way or make one" by Hannibal. Are there ways to create environments to educate "high agency" people? 2/ The entire venture capital industry is based on the concept of investing in "high agency" "non conformist" people. You can see this with all of @paulg 's writings and all the essays of @ycombinator ? By can you educate "drive"? What does "high agency" even mean?
Mar 5, 2018 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
1/ Right now, people assume that belief leads to store of value which leads to medium of exchange, what if it starts instead with the unit of accounts which leads to store of value which leads to medium of exchange? 2/ Right now, we're in the Sapiens mode of thinking. That line of thinking is as follows.
Feb 21, 2018 • 23 tweets • 6 min read
1/ What is the hypothetical scenario where crypto becomes the global store of value and medium of exchange? What is the timing and how will it happen? 2/ This is credit to a conversation with @jordancooper and @wendy_martell in a Curious Conversation event with @deekay
Jan 25, 2018 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1/ What is the function of demand and how will that influence the price action of the coin? 2/ First we have to examine the demand and supply side of the coin and the analogies to countries.
Jan 17, 2018 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Satoshi is my shepherd; I shall not want. 2/ He maketh me to lie down in Merkle Trees: he leadth me besides the HODL brigade: @parabolictrav
Jan 15, 2018 • 33 tweets • 8 min read
1/ What are the open problems in the blockchain and what are some existing approaches to solve these problems? 2/ First, we have to examine the history of blockchain from a technical and also conceptual standpoint.
Jan 6, 2018 • 43 tweets • 10 min read
1/ What are the of series of articles of books, concepts, courses, articles that have been interesting for 2017? Feel free to add your own. 2/ Bretton Woods Treaty, naval power, shale and the implications of this toward post WWIII balance by @PeterZeihan