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cinyc Profile picture
@cinyc9
Dec 23, 2017 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Tutorial on how to make a map using QGIS. I'll turn @SenhorRaposa's 2000 Vermont town data into a map showing by how much Gore outran Senator Jeffords (or vice versa) in every town.
Step 1: Download QGIS for your computer, which is available here:
qgis.org/en/site/foruse…

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More from @cinyc9

cinyc Profile picture
Jan 16
Gather around and you will hear the story of the start of a statewide Alaska political career - and dynasty. It's an act in ~3 parts.
Pt 1 tonight:

In 1968, then AK State Sen Nick Begich Sr. ran against AK's 1st state AG, John Rader & 2 others in the D AK-AL primary.

The map: Image
Begich won the primary by about 10 points, largely due to strength in Anchorage. Former AG & State Rep Rader did well in some of the rural hub communities.

A 3rd candidate, Don Wright, made what may have been his first of many quixotic statewide runs, winning some Interior pcts.
AK-AL was held by Republican Howard Pollack in 1968. Would he hold on against Begich? And how does the '68 GE map compare to his grandson's, @NickforAlaska Begich's (R) 2022 loss and 2024 victory?

We'll get there eventually.

Tomorrow: a map of the 1968 AK-AL GE.
Read 8 tweets
cinyc Profile picture
Nov 14, 2024
Good morning, AK!

Thread of the RCV state of some close AK State House races that people have requested over the past few days.

Caveats:
-Data is from Cast Vote Record. It still is missing 61 rural ED precincts. I'll add those back in if possible.
-ABS & Q still outstanding.
First, HD-6. One precinct is still missing from the CVR - Seldovia.

Sarah Vance (R) leads Brent Johnson (NON) by about 5 points before and 6 points after RCV, as most Dawson Slaughter (R) votes spoil, but more go to Vance than Johnson.

Missing: ~1,400 ABS, up to 348 Question. Image
Current HD-6 ABS are breaking 56-38% Johnson. Another 1,400 or so would maybe net Johnson 250-300 votes before RCV.

Vance's first-round lead is 437 votes, suggesting additional votes probably aren't enough for Johnson to overtake Vance.
Read 14 tweets
cinyc Profile picture
Nov 14, 2024
Thread on my AK CVR-reading code, and the AK CVR generally.

The python code available on Github here:


It's split up into two files - AK CVR Marks Convertor dot py, which reads the marks in the CVR and converts them to a more useable csv format, and...github.com/thecinyc/AK-CVR
AK CVR Tabulator dot py, which tabulates the marks and sends them to a second csv file.
-----
Backstory to the code:

Normally, you could use the Universal RCV tabulator to run a CVR. However, back in 2022 we found that it wasn't properly computing AK's CVR, due to skip rules.
So I and another Twitter user tried to find a way to read Alaska's CVR another way.

AK's CVR is broken up into a bunch of separate json files. Reading some of these - in a text editor like Sublime Text or otherwise - is necessary to get the Candidate and Precinct ID numbers. Image
Read 16 tweets
cinyc Profile picture
Nov 13, 2024
AK counted about 36K ballots yesterday. Here's the back-of-the-envelope math on what's likely to happen to BM 2 (RCV Repeal) and AK-AL (spoiler: I'm calling it for @NickforAlaska Begich - and I rarely call anything).

First, RCV repeal.

It's going to be very close.

1/? Image
Yes (repeal RCV) is on track for a narrow 600 vote victory, but all it would take is for an additional 4K or so absentees to show up and break how they're currently breaking for it to fail. (Or if the late counts break differently than the early counts by HD by a little).

2/?
Next, AK-AL:

The overall math shows @NickforAlaska Begich projected to lead @MaryPeltola by about 2.2% or 7K votes going into RCV (which will almost certainly be triggered).

However, even if ALL the potential additional 21K absentees were to come in, Peltola would trail.

3/? Image
Read 6 tweets
cinyc Profile picture
Nov 11, 2024
Alaska released its Cast Vote Record today, with the rank choices. I've run my RCV calculator on it.

As of right now - and there are a lot of votes still uncounted - @NickforAlaska Begich is up over @MaryPeltola by roughly 6 after the RCV algorithms are run. Image
The full run by rounds (this is very long):

Honestly, I wasn't ready for the CVR to be released today. I didn't have time to update my script. It seems to be working though. Image
My Pythoin code to compute this is here:


It's not the most intuitive to use. Instructions to run it are in the Read Me file.

I've asked @MAlvarezRivera - who has his own AK CVR script to confirm my numbers,github.com/thecinyc/AK-CVR
Read 7 tweets
cinyc Profile picture
Nov 5, 2024
6PM NYC checkins:

Over 1.1 millioin NYC voters have voted today. Now, Manhattan lags and the Bronx is up - but all turnout rates are within about 2 points of each other. Image
Overall including early vote, Staten Island leads and the Bronx lags. Brooklyn and Queens are about average. Image
The 3PM to 6PM numbers show things picking up most in Bronx, Staten Island and Queens. Image
Read 4 tweets

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