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Annie Duke Profile picture
@AnnieDuke
Mar 23, 2018 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
On election day in #PA18 special election, @nytimes explained how election-night forecasting device “The Needle” worked & explained the near certainty it will be “wrong” at some point (if by wrong you mean the candidate the needle favors eventually loses). nytimes.com/2018/03/13/ups…
“All hail the needle!” – In Dec. AL Senate election, @nytimes needle had eventual winner, Jones, at 62% to win (based on Democratic-heavy precincts yet to report) when Moore was ahead by 8 points with 2/3 of precincts counted.

Article by @Nate_Cohn @jshkatz Image
Remember, “90% likely” is also an estimate that it won’t happen 10%. @nytimes reports the difficulties explaining probabilities in a world of “right” and “wrong.” Image
The needle + “the jitter”: to reflect uncertainty @nytimes had the needle quiver. Some readers disliked it, they turned it off for 2017 forecasts, but brought it back in 2018 (with reader option to turn off). Image

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More from @AnnieDuke

Annie Duke Profile picture
Nov 18, 2022
In < 2 weeks (Nov. 28) I’m launching my 1st cohort-based decision-making class on @MavenHQ. It’s for entrepreneurs, executive-level decision makers, investors & anyone seeking to make higher quality decisions in their business, work, and personal life.

1/ 11 Image
I've been studying how to make better decisions under uncertainty my whole adult life: professional poker player career, work in cognitive science, writing 3 books about decision making & consulting w/ incredible companies like @firstround @RenegadePtnrs and @mParticle.
2/11
My clients have to make high stakes decisions under conditions of uncertainty every day.
3/11
Read 11 tweets
Annie Duke Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
Quitting gets a bad rap. Language favors grit over quitting. We’re taught that people who quit are cowards and that quitting is an obstacle to overcome.

1/6
I reject this. I wrote #QUIT to rehabilitate quitting’s image and to show people that it is a valuable decision skill and our best tool for making decisions under uncertainty.

2/6
It allows us to change course when new information is revealed, let go of things that aren’t worthwhile, and make the best next move.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Annie Duke Profile picture
Nov 3, 2022
The most meaningful conversations your team needs to be having (that you probably aren't already) are around quitting.

#THREAD

1/4
It’s critical to understand that while your intuition is probably telling you that improving quitting behavior won’t make a difference in your decision-making or your business – that intuition is not correct.

2/4
Quitting is your secret weapon. It’s a superpower that takes time to master, but once you do, you will save your organization time, energy, and money.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Annie Duke Profile picture
Oct 31, 2022
Lead your team through this exercise during my Flight Cohort on @BalloonPlatform. You'll identify mission-critical parts to tackle first, create experiments to decide what’s worth pursuing, identify tasks to put on the backburner & build a project plan around these pieces.

1/4
I can guarantee using this framework with your team will help you make the best next move and save your team time, energy, and money.

2/4
If you’ve already purchased #QUIT, you can get a discount code for 10% off of the Balloon Flight Cohort by filling out this proof of purchase form: surveymonkey.com/r/QuitADuke

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Annie Duke Profile picture
Oct 25, 2022
Inflexible goals aren’t a good fit for a flexible world.

1/6
After we set a goal, it becomes a fixed object.

The goal becomes the object of our grit, instead of all the values expressed and balanced when we originally set the goal, even as all the inputs that led to choosing that particular goal evolve.

2/6
The conditions in the world change.

Our knowledge changes.

The weights we attach to the benefits and costs change.

Our preferences and values change.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Annie Duke Profile picture
Oct 25, 2022
In #QUIT, I outline the various cognitive and motivational forces that work against good quitting behavior. There’s sunk cost bias, desire for certainty, escalation of commitment, status quo bias, and endowment bias (to name a few).

1/9
I go into different mental models and frameworks to build good quitting behaviors into your toolbox, like thinking in expected value, increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting criteria” and contracts, etc.

2/9
I can’t emphasize enough how important these tools are — but it can be difficult to bring your team or company along as well, especially when collaborative settings add in a whole host of additional group dynamics and biases that work against good decision-making.

3/9
Read 9 tweets

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