Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Kabir K. Profile picture
@kabir_here
Apr 19, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
About 144K early votes in AZ-8 special so far: 49% from registered Republicans, 28% from registered Democrats. Dems likely to be in a big hole come Tuesday, since early votes make up about 70% of total vote. arizona.vote/early-ballot-s…
Note: we of course don't know *whom* people have voted for yet, just their party registration. To make up for their turnout disadvantage, Dems would need a lot of GOP voters to vote for @hiral4congress, instead of @DebbieLesko.
This is a solidly conservative district. Among all registered voters there, 41% are Republicans and 24% are Democrats. Most voters are over 50, and about eight in ten are white. Trump won it by 21 points.
More early ballots returned in #AZ8 precincts where Trump did well. Matching his vote share in each one would imply winning early vote by over 23 points, suggesting GOP doesn't have turnout problem (note: rough because a few precincts recently consolidated). Actual results ~11 pm Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Kabir K.

Kabir K. Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kabir_here

Kabir K. Profile picture
May 2, 2023
Threading some interesting findings on '22 turnout via U.S. Census Current Population Survey...

52.2% of citizen voting-age population voted in '22 — just a point behind midterm record set in '18

69% of voting-age citizens registered to vote — highest on record (since '02)

1/4 Image
Nearly half (47.1%) of '22 votes were cast ahead of Election Day

While 20 points lower than '20, that's 9 points higher than previous midterm in '18

Nearly one third (31.8%) of voters cast ballots by mail (that's also down double digits from '20, while up 9 points from '18)

2/ Image
Use of early & mail voting varied by race & ethnicity...

Highest usage rate came from Asian voters (67%)

Majority of Hispanic voters (58%) voted either early or by mail

Lowest usage rates came from White non-Hispanic (48%) and Black voters (46%)

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Kabir K. Profile picture
May 1, 2023
NEW poll on GOP primary electorate and why most would still pick Trump

MAGA-friendly ideas widely held among Reps...

Want candidates who say Trump won in '20, don't criticize him, challenge "woke" ideas, make liberals angry

Some are exhausted by Trump, but far outnumbered

1/7 Image
It's early, so voters first picked as many names as they are *considering* for GOP nom — then picked one they would vote for today

Trump at 58% vote, winning more of his considerers than anyone else

DeSantis trails by a lot, but has room to grow among those considering him

2/7 Image
Trump may also have support floor: quarter of likely GOP voters considering *only Trump* right now, and no other names tested

Important because someone could win with plurality support if eventual field is fractured again

Another half of voters considering Trump + other(s)

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Kabir K. Profile picture
Aug 28, 2022
NEW Battleground Tracker out today...

GOP heads into fall still in position to win back House, but advantage a bit smaller after tumultuous summer — trend points toward narrow gains instead of wave

We estimate 226 GOP seats today — 12-seat gain that is smaller than in July

1/5
GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?

Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women

More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them

2/5
Another part of story is dropping gas prices and uptick in Biden approval — 45% with RVs, highest since Feb

Ratings also up on handling bread-and-butter issues like economy and inflation

Democrats driving gains: +8 on approval from July and +13 on things going well in U.S.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Kabir K. Profile picture
Jul 31, 2022
First edition of 2022 Battleground Tracker finds GOP lead of about 25 seats in U.S. House race

We survey voters across all 435 districts and apply an MRP model translating current preferences into seats

Snapshot of electorate, not a forecast — 100 days until Election Day!

1/5
Our poll explains GOP lead cbsn.ws/3JjWqfB

Looks like nature-of--times election: voters most likely to base vote on way things are in country — bad news for party in power

GOP leading among those who cite inflation and those feeling personal impact of higher prices

2/5
Midterms typically referendum on party in power...

Overall, 47% say they're basing their vote a lot on their feelings about Biden — driven by Republicans, most of whom still don't call him legitimate 2020 winner

Trump is still factor for about as many — driven by Democrats

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Kabir K. Profile picture
Jul 19, 2021
New @CBSNewsPoll study this week on voting in U.S.

In first installment, we find that most Americans say they prefer the voting process be left alone or made easier

With fight over voting in national spotlight, partisans see it as high-stakes fight affecting who wins power

1/6
Ds see risk to their electoral fortunes if voting is made harder, while Rs see risk to theirs if it's made easier

Ds say harder voting results in some key constituencies losing power

Rs less likely than Ds to see gains/losses, but on balance predict latter if voting easier

2/6
Note: partisans' views echo political discourse but may not be right

Many states expanded by-mail voting in 2020, but not clear it was responsible for historic turnout — recent research suggests otherwise

And even if easier voting boosted turnout, unclear Ds always benefit

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Kabir K. Profile picture
Mar 25, 2021
Thread highlighting takeaways from survey experiment

Given claims that Trump could improve vaccine uptake among supporters, we looked at effects of Trump and Biden endorsing vaccines

Data collected March 17-21 with @YouGov; recontacted people from March 10-13 national poll

1/7
Reps randomly assigned to see either:
Extra Q about Trump getting and endorsing vaccine
No extra question

Dems randomly assigned to see either:
Extra Q about Biden (analogous to above)
No extra question

Idea was to nudge people w/ presidential cue and measure causal effect

2/7
Trump cue comes as news to many Republicans...

Only 11% say they've heard a lot about Trump getting vaccinated and encouraging others to do the same in a recent speech

Another third say they've heard some about it, but a similar number saying they have heard nothing at all

3/7
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(