Thread by @tomloverro

Crypto winter is here ❄️. I was on the @coinbase board until 2021 and led its Series D for @IVP. I’ve lived crypto cycles since 2013. Here are my predictions on how and when this crypto winter will end, and how to emerge stronger. 🧵👇/1

In 2022, crypto will go even lower. 2023 will be mostly flat to down, until indifference 🥱 sets in, signaling a long-awaited spring thaw (explained below). Crypto macro will improve in the 2nd half of 2023. My reasoning: /2

Many VC & crypto investors suffer from recency bias, expecting a quick rebound b/c that’s what happened after the 2020 Covid black swan. This bear market isn’t a black swan; it’s the result of rising interest rates. So these investors will suffer 😳 until rates stabilize. /3

Going from crypto peak to floor has historically taken ~12 months. I expect that pattern to play out again, give or take. #btc’s peak was Nov 2021. /4

The bottom will come not during this current fear & loathing phase but later, after indifference sets in, crypto is no longer making headlines, and the tourists have left 🎉. That process will take many months. /5

Human psychology will influence this timeline. Crypto price movement is still driven by retail investors seeking novelty and momentum. Those investors are seeing neither right now. /6

So this is the time to prepare and think big 💪. During bull runs you’re paying off technical debt and keeping the servers from melting. Winters are for innovating and taking market share. /7

At @coinbase, we used the 2018-19 trough to accelerate product innovation and challenge our existing assumptions.We made tough decisions but came out stronger.🤔 /8

Crypto will rebound when retail discovers novel apps & use cases, esp those enabled by innovations at the protocol & dev infra layers (⬇️ txn costs, easier to build). @IVP is excited to back the next gen of crypto innovators, as we did @coinbase @FTX_Official @Sorare @TaxBit. /9

My advice now is: Have enough cash to get through the next 30-36 months and, even more importantly, sufficient FAITH to survive the winter without wavering or chasing new and non-crypto directions. Crypto will come back bigger than ever.🔥 /end