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Ian Ellis Profile picture
Nov 15 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Mapping potential military targets in Venezuela

Yesterday, the U.S. announced Operation Southern Spear to "remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere." With the Ford carrier strike group now on station in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. could launch land strikes at any time.

w/ @SA_Defensa Image
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on potential military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela — and how — have been underway for days...

An administration official said 'a host of options' have been presented to the president." (WaPo)
Special thanks to @SA_Defensa, he’s one of the best in the business.
We were able to add detailed radar and ISR targets thanks to the excellent OSINT work by @gris_area. He geolocated the main CODAI (Comando de Defensa Aeroespacial Integral) radar surveillance network, as well as other rotational and temporary radar sites. Scroll his timeline for a deep dive.
"Fighter pilots aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier that’s been dispatched to the region, have been studying Venezuelan air defenses, though they did not yet know whether they’ll be ordered to attack," WaPo reported.

If you want to read up on Venezuela's AD capabilities, I suggest this recent primer by @thewarzonewire:
"I sort of have made up my mind" about the administration's next steps in Venezuela, POTUS told CBS News aboard Air Force One, but "I can't tell you what it would be."

via @JenniferJJacobs @JimLaPorta
WaPo: “Look for precision kinetic strikes against narcotics targets and military capability and, if that doesn’t have the desired effect, against leadership,” Jim Stavridis, a retired U.S. admiral, said. “I think the game here is to convince Maduro that his days are numbered, but convincing him of that will take a fair amount of strikes against Venezuela’s infrastructure.”

In the face of such force, Maduro might hunker down, Stavridis said. That would leave the Trump administration to potentially deliberate whether to carry out strikes against Maduro’s security or a Special Operations mission to capture or kill the authoritarian leader. Such an effort, Stavridis said, “would be pretty high-stakes, with a lot of potential risk.”

Stavridis suggested the United States could begin with strikes on airports or seaports that it identifies as potential shipping hubs for drugs. It also could strike shipment points near Venezuela’s border with Colombia, where significant quantities of cocaine originate. But the Pentagon also would want to attack Venezuelan air defenses to keep its own aircraft safe, the retired admiral said."

Graphic/source: @juledurg @DanLamothe @washingtonpostImage

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More from @ianellisjones

Nov 10
Many moving pieces in SOUTHCOM as the Ford Carrier Strike Group steams toward the Caribbean & POTUS considers striking land targets in Venezuela.

Visualizing U.S. force posture, w/ illustrative Tomahawk Land Attack Missile & Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile strike packages: Image
On 24 October, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and embarked carrier air wing were directed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility. Open source flight tracking data indicates its journey across the Atlantic is likely underway. @MT_Anderson
@MT_Anderson MV Ocean Trader is back in the southern Caribbean. For specific ship locations scroll @MT_Anderson’s timeline
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1
SOUTHCOM Snapshot: Potential strike package with a TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack Missile) loadout via @vcdgf555

POTUS has options. Image
The U.S. has deployed a considerable naval and expeditionary force to the Caribbean (U.S. Southern Command/4th Fleet AOR), providing POTUS with a wide range of military options to use against Venezuela or other non-state actors in the region. Catch up on everything that’s happened:
"The IWO ARG – 22nd MEU(SOC) is America’s 9-1-1 force—lethal, capable, and adaptable—ready to respond to contingency missions around the globe. This force operates 24/7, reassuring our Allies and partners; deterring our adversaries; keeping the world’s oceans free and open in accordance with international standards; and projecting power on a global scale through sustained operations at sea."
Read 4 tweets
Aug 25
Update on U.S. Navy deployments to SOUTHCOM:

- USNI identified the guided-missile cruiser assigned to the task force, USS Lake Erie (CG 70), now operating in U.S. 4th Fleet
- IWOARG is underway en route to SOUTHCOM: USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) + USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) left Norfolk yesterday; USS San Antonio (LPD 17) departed today
- USS Gravely (DDG 107), USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109), and USS Minneapolis-St. Paul (LCS 21) are on station in the Caribbean; USS Sampson (DDG 102) is still south of Panama
- The fast attack sub remains unidentified, but several have been active off the east coast in August

More info and sources below.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22
🚨 U.S. conducts massive precision strikes "obliterating" key Iranian nuclear facilities

- USAF B-2 bombers dropped at least 6x GBU-57 MOP bombs on Fordo
- U.S. Navy guided-missile sub USS Georgia (SSGN 729) fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan

What we know: Image
Source: @EricSchmittNYT Image
Update: One B-2 also dropped two bunker busters on Natanz, according to the U.S. official @EricSchmittNYT Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
PLA Navy in 2025: More warships, farther than ever before

• 1,350+ Chinese vessels near Taiwan (+26%)
• Liaoning’s longest deployment ever, deep into WESTPAC
• First circumnavigation of Australia
• 20+ joint combat readiness patrols

These deployments demonstrate Beijing's blue water ambitions and the capability to project power outside the first and second island chains, sending a clear message to not only the U.S. and Taiwan but also Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.Image
The Chinese PLA has deployed four big deck warships - two aircraft carriers and two amphibious assault ships - over the last month.

The U.S. Navy is also active in the region:
The Liaoning carrier task group is operating deep in the Western Pacific, more than 2,000 miles (3,200km) from its homeport at Yuchi Naval Base. This represents the PLA's longest carrier deployment on record and the first time deploying beyond the second island chain.
Read 5 tweets
May 2
🚨 China dispatched 546* PLA aircraft around Taiwan in April, the highest monthly total of 2025 & most since August

Nearly 1,800 PLA aircraft have been detected operating nearby year-to-date (+48% yoy), with 1,200+ crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ (+184%)

New heatmap with @OSINTNW: Image
Year-to-date, PLA incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2025 continue to run significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. Image
China wasn't fooling around on 1 April when they announced exercise Strait Thunder 2025A, taking advantage of favorable weather conditions to "close in on Taiwan from multiple directions" and execute one of the PLA's largest blockade drills to date. 135 PLA planes were detected over 2 days.
Read 6 tweets

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