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jay Profile picture
jay
@0xjaypeg
2 subscribers
Jan 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Had the thesis a while ago that airdrops would target "strong" communities (pengus, punks, etc)

Guess Kaito filled that gap by taking a more quantitative approach

Similar to how fb/goog could do targeted advertising, Kaito is building the crypto equivalent

Cool to see Image we had a number of airdrops in the past year - the meta quickly evolved into one where it was hard to discern organic community vs. sybils / farmers

ultimately this is an identity problem (anyone can spin up hundreds of wallets)

Jan 14 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Asking about the business use case for blockchains (L1s) is backwards looking.

This is the equivalent of asking what is the use case of <insert fav chat app> when messenger, whatsapp, imessage, etc. all exist. Is there really a difference between these chat apps? Sure, there are nuances around security, UI preferences, and whether the backend architecture is optimizing for consistency vs. availability but at the EOD, for 99.99% of users, there isn’t a difference. The same thing can be said about L1s themselves
Nov 13, 2024 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
So what’s with the underperformance of crypto equities? 🧵 1/ Hopefully this will illustrate the general dynamics on how the options market effects the underlying stock price Image
Nov 7, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some reminders (to self) as things start to get parabolic 1) If you are in “everything” you aren’t going to outperform. You don’t need to catch every coin. FOMO is the mind killer
Oct 19, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Some more thoughts on AI agents, crypto, and GNON 1/ these agents are built via a process called reinforcement learning - the agent will perform a sequence of actions and will either be rewarded/punished based off the outcome of those actions

as the AI engineer/researcher, you can program the set of outcomes that get rewarded
Oct 19, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What are the best tweets / posts to understand GNON?

This coin went from 25M to 110M in the last 10 hours, ridiculous "Gnon relates to AI through its philosophical underpinnings in Dark Enlightenment thought, focusing on inevitability, control, and the evolution of intelligence. Gnon, representing unavoidable natural law or reality, aligns with key concerns in AI about the relationship between intelligence and goals. These concepts engage with ideas on whether AI systems can be designed to maintain specific objectives or whether they will evolve beyond human-imposed constraints."
Oct 16, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
COIN CLSK MSTR

think its go time reasoning on miners from a year ago still applicable

Oct 3, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
time is a flat circle, uptober 2023 version 1/ Image
Oct 3, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
tbh this is prob why bull markets are so hard

euphoria into months of chop, sprinkle in a series of aggro liq cascades and you've given the majority of active market participants some form of ptsd even as we transition into a trending market, the process of making a lower high triggers the possibility of liq cascades

what aggravates this is the fact that prices typically bottom before sentiment -- and there are always a million reasons why prices can go lower
Sep 30, 2024 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
here is why i'm so bullish 🧵 Image 1/
for every 10% increase in global liq, btc goes up 5x (last 18 months) and 12x over its lifetime

go look at the spreadsheet above and tell me how much global liq has increased over the last 3 months Image
Sep 24, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I'm pretty bulled up man Image China is going to add another few % to this increase

The US has basically stated they are going to ease (50bps cut, fed put, TGA needs to be drained pre debt ceiling, shorter duration debt issuance)

DXY falling off a cliff, so foreign dollar denominated debt devalued
Sep 23, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
these are the alts i like Image WQUIL Image
Sep 23, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
so many calls to “lock tf in!”

???

just don’t sell too early / over manage your positions

im gonna go touch grass also funniest scenario is god candle to 70k, everyone longs the breakout and then we nuke to 60k before the real fun begins

😀
Sep 22, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
some thoughts on token / breakpoint (market focused) the biggest takeaway for me is to figure out a better tax situation

for the homies living in the US (outside of Puerto Rico) this is prob the lowest hanging fruit to becoming much more profitable
Sep 20, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
ansem and wif

burniske and tia markets suffer from short term memory but as a reminder, wif also did -85% before making its parabolic run

and yes, there is going to be ~176M tia tokens unlocked in 6 weeks

not financial advice, please dyor Image
Sep 11, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
ngl feels disgusting to DCA everyday into this market i actually puked buying this Image
Aug 30, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
It’s been a while since we’ve seen some massive green candles (that aren’t immediately followed by red ones)

We had extremely high expectations with BTC getting ahead of itself and breaking through ATHs back in March. Since then, we’ve had a ton of supply dumped on us leading to mass liquidation events on monthly basis over the last 6 months

Everyone quotes Sept seasonality, recession fears, and Kamala winning as reasons to be bearish here. These are certainly factors that work against risk asset prices going up

In retrospect, 99% of us would’ve been much better off just taking the summer off. Even if you made $, the effort-reward ratio prob wasn’t nearly as worth it relative to what we had from Nov - March

I can’t say for certain what price will do from here, but here are the relevant factors in my mind

Bullish
- Global liquidity (supply of $) increasing substantially over the last two months
- Rate cuts (price of $) set to decrease, starting Sept
- Lots of regulatory progress over the 3-6 months (eth etf, ripple)
- Capital sidelined off risk assets post carry trade unwind (this may be bearish, what do they know?)

Bearish
- SPY up 18% YTD (avg election year is 11.28%) - have we gotten ahead of our skis and do we underperform here on out?
- Recession fears – a lot of the economic data is *not* forward looking (Sahm rule triggered, unemployment altered, etc)
- Sept seasonality and volatility into the election (if everyone prefers to remain cautious/hedged, who is the marginal buyer?)

And tbh, this is a spot where I’m constantly being challenged. Among the smart folks I follow, the views are super split and it is hard to gather and maintain conviction… the data feels very in the middle. This would explain the chop that we’ve had

The one thing I do know is that a few green candles (no retraces) would really change the vibes

Did I miss anything? Disagree with my view? Let’s debateImage all the data comes from @crossbordercap (great source imo)

Jul 5, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Past few months have made it evidently clear why bull markets are so difficult

I’m luckily in a position where my portfolio size has jumped significantly since the lows in Jan 2023

However, as size has increased, it’s been significantly harder to stay “comfy in spot”. Days like yesterday are definitely periods where your conviction is tested

I still strongly believe we haven’t topped for this cycle

- Spot ETH etf hasn’t launched yet. Fink has yet to say much about ETH directly
- Trump has positioned himself as extremely pro “number go up” candidate, and even further leaning into being pro crypto
- We have made significantly regulatory progress over the last month (ETH etf approval, USDC getting EU license under MiCA, Coinbase suing SEC, Chevron case)
- Rate cuts looking more probable as unemployment inches higher, inflation flat/lower, and we get closer to the US election

I mentioned this before, but the post-halving price action isn’t out of the ordinary – miners selling, sell the news $ flowing out are all in line with what has happened in past cycles

With a ~15% drawdown on BTC in 4 daily consecutive candles (and much, much worse for majority of alts) the supply overhang from mtgox, german/us gov seem to be more priced in than not (more detailed rationale linked)

I think the tricky part is to align this with the fact that chart technicals are in a fairly dicey area - daily and weekly structure are in a precarious position (below MAs and significant support lvls) atm.

The question then becomes – does the weighted $ care about these lines? Especially with the ETF the lines become more blurred (how much do the suits weigh squiggly lines on candlestick charts?)

Disagree or think I missed something? Would be curious to hear why I could be wrong here
Jun 10, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
btc miner sentiment thread
Apr 8, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Ok here's how you actually make a deposit into Karak 1. Go to
2. Use any of these codes to gain access: lKJxH SKX9t 3WaAT AVSkZ ItmS9
3. Pick the network you want to use - I'm gonna pick Ethereum Mainnet for simplicity app.karak.network
Image
Feb 19, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of posts about Ethena on the TL today but many of them are long and dense.

Here's a concise 2 min explanation (so you can get back to trading AI coins 👽) covering:

1) What is Ethena + how they pay ~27% in APY on stables?
2) What are the risks? *What is Ethena + how they pay ~27% in APY on stables?*

1/ Ethena utilizes the mechanics behind ETH - it combines staking yield and perps funding

2/ By combining spot staked ETH and a short ETH perps position, they take on negligible directional risk

3/ As the user, you provide a ETH and/or stables that serves as collateral in Ethena’s custody, which they use to put on this yield generating position (which accrues to the stablecoin they issue)

Ethena has built automated system that manages their risk via re-upping collateral, maintaining delta-neutral exposure, etcImage