Political polling analysis and data visualisation. Created by @patrickjfl.
Nov 17, 2019 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 Long thread incoming!
Why I believe the polls are (again) overstating the Conservative lead over Labour.
Polls weight their data to a variety of factors so the poll sample broadly matches the national population, such as age, education, 2017 vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.
It is the latter demographic on which I want to focus. YouGov, for example, weight their samples to a target % of 38.3% Remain voters, 41.4% Leave voters and 20.3% did not vote. To begin with, this poses a problem given that it assumes a 2016 turnout of ~80%...
May 31, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
What I'm finding really interesting right now is how, from the European Parliament results and recent polling, the UK's political landscape is beginning to mirror France. As Thomas Piketty theorised, the French electorate in the 2016 Presidential Election was split into...
quadrants of roughly equal size in terms of electoral support. Beyond the historical dualistic economic left vs. right, Piketty explored how education was becoming another major cleavage in French politics, adding to the economic axis an educational one, creating four tribes...
