I love the fact that everyone suddenly seems aware that $SPY September #seasonality is weak.

Yes it usually can be but tends to be better in Presidential election years. You actually may be fairly shocked to see what could be coming in September. Here's the proof below in my thread: 👇🧵 I use market seasonality as a roadmap and discuss it all the time. I specifically remember being quite bearish last year during September and nailing the down move. However September has now been down 4 straight years (and sizably as can see below)

Sept returns for $SPX:
2020: -3.9%
2021: -4.8%
2022: -9.2%
2023: -5.4%

As we know trends do persist often but when everyone expects the same outcome, especially after 4 straight years seeing the same thing.. I'm not sure I am willing to bet on it.

Alot of people asking what caused the stock market selloff.. here's the answer.

Its never just one reason with this type of move, more of a domino effect that has been brewing. But you can point to the Yen 'carry trade' as the culprit.

Just look at the Aussie/Yen pair.. gave up the whole years gain.

Explanation in thread below👇 🧵 Let's break it down in a simple way using the lemonade stand example:

1. Borrowing Cheaply in Japan: Imagine you can borrow lemons from your friend in Japan at a very low cost. This is because Japan has very low-interest rates. So, you take advantage of these cheap lemons.