1/11
$TSLA's mysterious FX gain.

Reader's digest version: There is nothing wrong with the accounting applied, it's just there was no gain. Roughly 100m of $TSLAs reported income in the quarter never happened.

If you want the details, continue.... 2/11
$TSLA's FX balance at the end of 2q was about 600m, it grew to 616 in 3q. Over that time, FX moved adversely in each of their major currencies. The moves implied an impact of about negative 25m.

This was knowable prior to the 3q report, and most were estimating a negative

THEORY regarding Q3 '19 miracle COGs quarter.

$TSLA may be allocating higher costs to existing inventory and artificially lowering reported COGs to sales in the current period.

This would overstate gross margin and massively inflate profitability this quarter.

(more) we saw similar in q3 '18 and to a lesser extent q4 '18.

A reconciliation of reported inventory levels since the start of last year shows an unexplained increase in inventory values for just 3 quarters.

The last 2q's of '18 and now the 3rd q of '19

1/n
A quick thread on why this lease announcement from $TSLA last night is so absurd.

First, there was no leasing partner announced. Nor did they expand their warehouse line setup for leases 2/n

If we don't see either of those things soon, this basically can't happen, because it would be a near-term cash flow negative event for $TSLA

If $TSLA receives 10% down and $500 a month for a lease, they can't pay back the ABL (assuming 85% borrowing against $30K COGS)

$TSLA
1/n Going to ramble a bit, but wanted to share my thoughts and hopefully hear feedback from rational investors / skeptics / traders. I'm struggling with this situation. Nothing I say regarding trading is advice, everything I say is my opinion.

Quick background 2/n I was a professional investor (retired now), ran money for a long time at the biggest and best. I loved the people and i loved the meritocracy. Results were/are all that matters. BUT, as an analyst becoming a PM, i also learned there is a difference between conviction and

1/n $tsla, $tslaq

The update to Russ Mitchell's story clues us in on what actually helped drive TSLA's miracle quarter...

Tesla spokesman told The Times that a large receivable from one of its partner banks for loans issued to US customers is the 10% entity noted in the 10-Q 2/n
1) We know it's 1 entity. So this has to a lease partner for whom TSLA is providing a residual value guarantee (RVG).

2) The increase in AR must be due to TSLA accepting Model SX from customers who leased w this bank. It's likely vehicles were turned in early.