Recently, I noted how the US economy was showing signs of re-accelerating.

This has been reflected in bonds so far.

Scanning through what bonds are pricing across the curve for opportunities (systematic)🧵

https://twitter.com/aahanprometheus/status/2012566452314787962

1/ Over the last month, short-term interest rate markets have remained unchanged. Over the last year, these markets have remained unchanged. We show the evolution of these expectations below:

Is the US economy re-accelerating? 🧵

A comprehensive scan suggests evidence of improving economic breadth from the industrial sector. That's good for growth, profits, and future employment.

It also bodes well for stocks + industrial metals.

1/ A look through the evidence 2/ I look at this through three levels:

1. Asset prices/financial conditions
2. Real economy (business investment heavy)
3. Labor

How Would You Allocate Assets in Today's Macro Backdrop?

Scanning through asset prices and macro fundamentals to figure out the best reward/risk for asset allocation.

1/16 Lots of @prometheusmacro data... 2/Let's start with asset price trends, which give a nice context.

Starting with stocks, which continue to rip. After Liberation Day, it's basically been one-way traffic, which is consistent with an expanding business cycle.

Good morning.

One relatively novel to our approach at Prometheus is that we spend a lot of time linking *signal strength* to *position sizing*.

People often answer sizing (particularly in discretionary macro world) & conviction questions as two different answers

1/4 2/4 To be clear this is not a genius level concept, particularly for higher level quants.

But what we’ve found is that a broad majority of investors operate in constant vol space or sizing based on asymmetry.

The Big Picture For US Bonds 🌍

Often on this platform, I post short, one-line positions— usually a reflection of our Prometheus Institutional positioning. One of the things that I’ve posted frequently is:

Global Bonds > US Bonds

1/ Details on what’s driving this view… 2/ As ever, everything starts with the mechanics.

A bond is a fixed income instrument that offers returns above cash in exchange for the potential risk that those returns are eroded by inflation.

When inflation, inflation expectations, or policy expectation rise….

How Are You Positioned In Equities?

I will try to cover a lot of ground here: the macro view, how we're thinking about portfolio risk, beta management, and alpha generation.

1/23

A fully transparent look at how we're managing equity risk for Alpha & Beta 🧵
1/ Let's start with the macro view.

@prometheusmacro uses a battery of fundamental and market data to come up with forward views.

So if you want the full scoop, go check out the links in @prometheusmacro bio. A lot is free.

Getting to the big picture view...

Podcast Reflections 🗯️

@WarrenPies has become a must watch over the time I’ve been active here. He’s had a really good track this cycle, so I pay attention.

This podcast really got me thinking.

1/ I share my thoughts, agreements and disagreements…

open.spotify.com/episode/3FD3NK… 2/ 2:45 Right out of the gate with something I’ve been thinking about a huge amount:

What’s Neutral?

I’ve largely been averse to trying to define what neutral is. It’s because there’s no way to truly verify if your neutral estimate is correct on the economy. The data…..

Why Does Bill Issuance Matter?

Treasury quarterly refunding is coming up, and it’s become quite a focus for markets.

Quantity, composition, and indirect impacts all matter.

1/ Mechanics thread. 2/ Let’s start with the basic nature of treasury issuance.

What is treasury issuance?

It’s pretty straightforward— the government runs deficits, i.e. it spends more than it makes. It has to borrow to fund this. That borrowing is issuance.

That borrowing is financed by…

I would have killed for access to content like this when I was younger.

I can’t believe this type of stuff is free now.

Awesome stuff @BobEUnlimited.

1/ While I agree on the big picture, I have a few nuanced disagreements…

2/ 0:30 The big picture outlined here is something I and @prometheusmacro agree with:

Growth is okay, but the expectations for growth priced into equities are exuberant. 17% earnings growth is high

While that’s to not as sexy as a recession call, I think this has alpha…

The best “Liquidity” podcast I’ve heard to date.

Clear, expert guest, strong questions. Things that can be quantified into signal.

1/ Sharing some thoughts I had as I listened:

open.spotify.com/episode/2OWEzb… 2/ 10:45 I think the colour on “banks using daily overdrafts pre 2008” is good colour and a sign of the times.

But I think the main thing that created low reserves was the corridor system of rates, which shifted to a floor system.

The corridor system disincentivised…

What’s Your View On Stocks For 2025?

Equity markets have had a killer year, up 27% in 2025. Growth crushed expectations.

For stocks to continue to do this well, that has to continue.

Can it? I don’t think so.

1/ Thread. 2/ Let me start by saying I’m averse to 1-year forecasts.

As a quantitative investor, I can tell you that there’s almost nothing that is truly predictable 1-year ahead.

The future is dynamic. Your investment outlook should be too.

Okay, disclaimer done.

Private Sector Liquidity Mechanics

Most people think liquidity is just reserve balance at the Fed— it’s not.

That’s one piece of the public sector liquidity. But the private sector is its own thing.

1/ Thread. 2/ Let’s start with my layman’s definition of liquidity. Liquidity is your ability to buy stuff.

In markets, the ability to buy financial assets is particularly relevant, but liquidity can be used to buy pretty much anything.

There are more sophisticated ways…

Good afternoon. Hope you had a good trading week.

I recently got some questions about my thread on fiscal. Particularly, how can the effect of govt spending be more on GDI than GDP.

1/ I’ll offer two lenses. One intuitively straightforward. One more nerdy. 2/ Starting with the intuitive.

GDI = Wages + Taxes + Operating Surplus (Includes Net Interest) + Capital Consumption

GDP = C + I + G + (X -M)

So on the GDP side, it’s just G that makes it into the private. There’s more nuance on GDI side.

What Is The Effect Of Government Spending?

Post COVID, the role of the government took a big jump.

How much is it helping the economy?

Is it unsustainable?

How is it impacting markets?

1/ My thoughts on government policy. Thread. 2/ Disclaimer:

In this note I’m going to focus mostly on fiscal policy, because that’s the lever that’s been used and it’s easier to explain in isolation first. I’ll link the monetary policy side in a later thread…

How Do You Look At CPI Data?

Tomorrow we’ll have CPI data, and in the post-2022 era, it has become an important day for markets. @prometheusmacro does
all the legwork for me, but there are relationships & nuances I look for.

1/ I share my lenses for assessing the data. Thread. 2/ Before we get into CPI specifics, there are two frameworks that I think are extremely important in evaluating CPI:

How do we macro assess data?

If you don’t have a framework for data? it’s tough to have one for ay specific data set. My approach here:

https://twitter.com/aahanprometheus/status/1865140624363794939

Is Housing The Business Cycle?

In 2007, Ed Leamer wrote a paper documenting how most business cycle downturns were driven by housing downturns.

It was provocatively titled “Housing IS The Business Cycle”

1/ I wish it was so straightforward. Thread. 2/ Let’s start with defining a business cycle.

A business cycle is the cyclical variation of economic activity from its long-term average growth driven by population & productivity.

While we have a long term upwards trend in growth from demographics…

How do you evaluate macro data?

Everyday, @prometheusmacro uses newly released macro data to figure out how to position our portfolios.

Side by side, I go through the data myself to find blind spots in the signals.

1/ My process for evaluating macro data. Thread. 2/ I think there are three ways that data needs to contextualised for them to make sense and be useful:

1. Mechanical Impact
2. Data Momentum
3. Data Trajectory

I’m think all these things are important, but become the real deal only when put together. Let talk about each…

Everyday, I look through markets to understand what’s going on in macro.

@prometheusmacro of does the quantitative legwork, but as a student of markets I also look through them discretionarily to see what Prometheus might miss

1/ Sharing my daily market monitoring process… 2/ It always starts at odd hours with a PnL check.

I’m usually up before any alarms. I find markets endlessly interesting.

Like any investor, I’m hyper-fixated on PnL. Fortunately, being a systematic macro investor I always have a clear idea of the themes we’re betting on…

What’s your view on the economy & markets?

The @prometheusmacro view is a precise quantitative assessment of 1000s of measures. It’s complicated. And nuanced. But actionable.

1/ I’m going to offer my read of what’s happening and try to simplify… 2/ Let’s start with a very simple “TLDR” takeaways. The economy is in a boring place.

Boring how? There are no crashes, panics, manias, bubbles etc. in sight, or likely to occur. We’re in an expansion, and there aren’t very many warning signs that that’s going to change..

Alright, let’s do this twitter thing.

1/ I started @prometheusmacro in 2020 as a free blog to develop and share my ideas on macro and investing. Fast forward to today and Prometheus is a fast growing macro research firm servicing some of the biggest institutions in the world… 2/ As we grew, I never really cared about getting attention for myself. That’s why I was happy to share my views from the @prometheusmacro account and let the work speak for itself. However….