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Tony Badran Profile picture
Tony Badran
@AcrossTheBay
With Jazz and conversation. @tabletmag
Dec 17, 2024 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I have to come back to these outstanding comments by President Trump. The man has shown remarkable clarity on the Middle East. One example is his statement on KSA back in 2018: tabletmag.com/sections/israe…

Another is his recognition of the Golan and moving the embassy to Jerusalem.

Another is killing Soleimani, which set the ball rolling on dismantling the Iranian position and the fall of Assad. But his comments on Syria here are up there with his best stuff. How so? Two key points: 1- not once does Trump utter the words "Al-Qaeda," "jihadists," or even "Islamists." Instead what does he say? Turkey--and not disparagingly, mind you.
Dec 8, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
There was something odd about watching the past several days in Syria. On one level, it felt like deja vu from 2012. At the same time it was a completely different dynamic. The difference that set in motion this historic development is Israel. More precisely: Benjamin Netanyahu. Benjamin Netanyahu went on the offensive and showed that the emperor in DC and his allies in Tehran have no clothes. By defying Obama's imperial regional project, Netanyahu altered the geopolitical map. He ran the table.
Dec 1, 2024 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
There's been a lot of excitement, confusion, and, alas, retardation, about what's happening in Syria. So let's start with what's *not* happening. 1- This is not the impending collapse of the Assad regime. 2- Contra the clown show on the right, this is not the "CIA Neocon Deep State" launching a new war using Al-Qaeda/ISIS.

Rather, this is Turkey acting rationally in its self-interest to achieve limited objectives.
Nov 4, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Team Obama-Biden long ago established a channel with Hezbollah through the latter’s man, the former head of General Security, Abbas Ibrahim. Recently, e.g., they used the Ibrahim channel to negotiate as directly as possible with Hezbollah for their maritime border initiative. 1/ Image Although Ibrahim retired from his official position, he remains the channel to Hezbollah. He has now revealed that Team Obama-Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein (who communicated with Hezbollah via Ibrahim in 2022), contacted him shortly after the Oct 7 terrorist attack. 2/
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Jul 9, 2023 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Let's revisit that, shall we? For giggles, if for nothing else. 1/ https://t.co/poB6qUL6D7






 2/





Jun 21, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
This month marks the 40th anniversary of Israel’s 1982 military operation in Lebanon. Amazingly, 4 decades later, a fundamental falsehood persists about the relationship between Israel’s intervention and the rise of Hezbollah. 1/ The falsehood has long been the common wisdom about the birth of Hezbollah. The narrative, cynically promoted by some Israeli politicians, like Ehud Barak, who sought to justify his policy decisions, claims, as he put it, that it was Israel’s “stay that established” Hezbollah. 2/
Jun 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Lol clown show. So, the DoD is donating three vessels to the LAF, to look pretty, on the US taxpayer’s expense. France, meanwhile, is selling 4 vessels by extending a line of credit to the bankrupt Lebanese gov which stole its citizenry’s deposits. defensenews.com/global/mideast… Image The cherry on top here is that neither the US nor certainly the French even expect the LAF to use these vessels in any way to impede Hezbollah activities. So, DoS/DoD bullshit Congress that the reason the LAF hasn't done anything is *lack of capacity* which they're addressing...
Jun 7, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Brief Thread: Mohtashamipour, Mughniyeh, Hezbollah, and the 1983 Beirut bombings. 1/ Mohtashami was a student of Khomeini, who, like many of Khomeini’s followers, frequently visited and lived in Lebanon in the 1970’s. There they received military training (with the Palestinians) and surveyed and recruited from the Shiite scene. 2/
Feb 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
That’s not even the biggest issue. The nature of this strike does the opposite of what people think it does:
1- It restores the fictional separation between Iran and the IRGC-led militias. Whereas Trump took out Soleimani, now we hit a nondescript *militia* target. 1/ 2- In addition to Soleimani (in Iraq), Trump took out his top lieutenant *in Iraq* and the leader of the PMUs. By hitting in Syria, this strike is thus not one, but two steps removed. 2/
Sep 29, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Some notes on the location of the sites Israel identified today as Hezbollah missile sites. The three neighborhoods, from north to south are Jnah, Laylaki and Choueifat al-Amrousieh. 1/ Jnah is north of the Beirut airport, near the Iranian embassy. Laylaki is further to the southeast, adjacent to Hadath in the Baabda district. Choueifat al-Amrousieh is straight south of that, in the Aley district. All are packed with Hezbollah infrastructure. 2/
Sep 23, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
For years, the US treated the Banque du Liban and the banking sector with kid gloves, to avoid “destabilizing Lebanon’s economy”—now a moot point. But many Lebs, including analysts, continue to peddle nonsense and PR about Lebanon’s banks and Hezbollah. 1/ Likewise, the Lebs prefer their myths about how their “economy” ran on diaspora remittances — which was also part of the PR.

In this memo with @eottolenghi we lay out how extensively intertwined Lebanon and Hezbollah finances have been. fdd.org/analysis/2020/… 2/
Sep 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
POTUS comes out swinging at UNGA. Opening lines:

- We have waged a fierce battle against the invisible enemy -- the China virus.

- In the earliest days of the virus, China locked down travel domestically while allowing flights to leave China and infect the world. 1/ - The Chinese government and the World Health Organization -- which is virtually controlled by China.

- We also know that American prosperity is the bedrock of freedom and security

- We stood up to decades of China's trade abuses. 2/
Sep 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
On August 19, David Hale expressed the @statedept position that it will have no problem dealing with a Hezbollah gov, or a gov which includes Hezbollah. At the same time, State is demanding that Europe must reject the fake distinction between “political” and “military” wings. 1/ In 2014, David Hale attended a dinner with Lebanese businessmen, organized by a Lebanese politician. Attendees reportedly included: Abdel Razzak Achour, Qassem Hejeij, Saleh Assi, Khalil Ibrahim, Qassem Tajeddine, and Ali Charara. 2/
Sep 17, 2020 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Treasury sanctioned Sultan As'ad and two of the companies he founded, which were subordinate to Hezbollah’s Executive Council. home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

As’ad handles municipal affairs for the group — an issue I’ve long raised in my work. 1/ Of course, all these Jihad al-Binaa companies (not to mention Martyrs’ Foundation/Atlas Holding companies) work with (Hezbollah-run) municipalities. But the municipalities also receive funds from government ministries (not to mention international orgs). 2/
Sep 8, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
OFAC adds to its SDN list Nabih Berri aide and former Finance Minister (!) Ali Hassan Khalil, as well as former public works minister (!) Youssef Finianos, who is close to Assad’s friend, Suleiman Frangieh.

The designations are counterterrorism designations (not GloMag). 1/ A couple of things: Fenianos is also close to designated Hezbollah security chief, Wafiq Safa (more on him here: fdd.org/analysis/2019/…). That’s included in his designation: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel… 2/
Aug 23, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
In May, I wrote that it seemed that Gebran Bassil had drawn the shortest straw.
There are now other elements that appear to add to this conclusion. It also factors Macron’s destructive role in Lebanon. Thread to follow: 1/ First, is this deliberate leak through a Lebanese media personality, which appears to have come from Berri’s circles (you’ll note that the attack in May also came from Berri).
The leak aims to point a finger at Bassil for the Rhosus vessel. 2/
Aug 9, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The reason why Jumblatt and Geagea are now saying, “we won’t resign” from parliament etc. is that, as I have been saying, they, indeed everyone, is a junior partner of Hezbollah. They know that Hezbollah runs it all. They’re petitioning to be readmitted in a “national unity gov.” It appears that Macron has encouraged them to pursue that path (natl. unity gov). Macron is for the Hezbollah-led status quo in Lebanon. That’s why he opposes the EU-wide designation of Hezbollah and changing the UNIFIL mandate.
Aug 7, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Looks like Macron roped in the Trump admin to subsidize the Lebanese cartel’s expenditures for the foreseeable future. Lebanon policy was always a liability; an insanity left over from the Obama years, backed by DoD, directly at odds with maximum pressure. news.trust.org/item/202008071… Macron roped in the Trump admin with the Hariri nonsense in KSA, which he then followed up with a donor conference to float his buddy and the Hezbollah-led cartel. He’s doing it again. And DoD/DoS is following suit like last time.
Aug 3, 2020 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
What explains China’s Uighur policy? As @Doranimated explains in this masterful strategic analysis: The “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.” Djibouti and Gwadar position China on the ME’s key chokepoints. The US meanwhile pursued “harmonic convergence.” 1/ tabletmag.com/sections/israe… While China, with the complicity of the US elite, focused on geostrategy, the US spent the last 20 years chasing neanderthals in caves. 2/
Jul 2, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
These very same BS artists who tell you Hezbollah ≠ "the state," also tell you (as a positive, mind you) Hezbollah needs "the cover of the state," and then further still tell you that you need to bail out the state! All at once. I wrote this yesterday, and it’s now been brought to my attention that, in fact, the Leb BS artists have already written precisely that. Here’s the summary of what they wrote in a thread: 1/
Jun 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This says “Lebanese reports” were behind the speculation of a swap for Tajideen. But it was the same author who cited the self-promoting fraudulent fabulist and asset Nizar Zakka making this unfounded claim just 3 days ago.
thenational.ae/world/the-amer…; thenational.ae/world/the-amer… 1/ ImageImageImage In fairness, every report, from Al-Arabiya, to Lebanon’s MTv and LBCI, cited the fraudulent asset Zakka. That made them all complicit in an info op. Zakka himself is the op. 2/