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Aaron Booth Profile picture
Aaron Booth
@ActorAaronBooth
I am an Actor, reporter for that one site & sometimes for that other one. I also consult for that one company. Come for the maps; stay for the bad takes.
Oct 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
So, here is my 2022 list. Fairly comprehensive considering it only accounts for roughly 1.7% of the statewide population. All districts are either identical since 2016 or have changed less than one tenth of one percent of the precinct's 2020 population. As a reminder, these precincts *are not* intended to add up to give a direct projection of the statewide margin. They are intended to be a guide as to where things are going by looking at a variety of types of precincts as they come in on election night.
Sep 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Since this Walz +18 poll last week, the Jensen camp hasn't yet released conflicting numbers & the only internal released since then was one from the McTavish campaign (h/t @morningtake) which had Walz "most preferable" 53-36. fluence-media.co/3QpeKWo So, Walz +18 in an independent poll from KSTP/SurveyUSA and a Walz +17 internal from Independence Candidate McTavish (from Gravis).
Jul 3, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Still something that only about 2 decades ago, the DFL managed to lose statewide (albeit with a significant 3rd party vote share) while winning a majority of counties. Hennepin County was only DFL+3.6, Ramsey was only DFL+9.9 and Olmsted was R+12.6 Yep. Edina for example was R+21.9 in the 2002 Auditor's race. In 2004, it was Kerry +2.6. In 2020, it was Biden +37.8. Similar story in Eden Prairie: R+ 29.4 to Bush + 12.1 to Biden +25.6.
Mar 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
And Graham is an aye on Haaland cloture... I thought I saw that right the first time but wasn't sure. So, if everyone but Burr votes again on this one, expect it to be a 53-46 vote to advance Haaland.
Mar 11, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Collins is an aye on Becerra discharge. Romney, Portman cast their first votes today against Biden nominees Murkowski breaks with Collins and votes no to join Romney and Portman.
Mar 9, 2021 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
29 nays so far on Garland for cloture. Looks like that will be the total. I'm guessing Cramer is out of town and will miss this vote as well.
Mar 9, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There is at least one other Titanic survivor that I am aware of having been elected to a State Legislature after the sinking: Robert Williams Daniel, a Conservative Democrat, was elected in 1935 to the Virginia Senate where he would serve until his death in 1940. Coincidentally, he was saved in the same lifeboat (boat 7) as future Minnesota State Representative John Pillsbury Snyder.
Mar 9, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
That Titanic survivor went on to be elected to one term in the Minnesota State House in 1926. He would then lose reelection 2 years later by 102 votes. The district was based in Minneapolis, but I have not further specifics on that. ImageImage Many years after his death, his wife gave this 1980 interview:
Mar 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Motion to proceed on the key legislation tab. We all know exactly how this vote will play out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… If all 100 Senators are present and voting, expect this to wind up 51-50
Mar 2, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
As of this moment, Bernie Sanders and Mitch McConnell have voted aye on the exact same number of confirmation votes (11/12) thus far in 2021. They opposed different nominees however: McConnell opposed Mayorkas (confirmed 56-43) and Sanders opposed Vilsack (confirmed 92-7). Burr & Capito are the other two who have only opposed one nominee on a confirmation floor vote, though Capito also missed a vote and Burr missed 2 votes.
Mar 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I’m just not sure on what planet they think they have the votes in either committee or on the floor. Right now it really seems like there are probably 53 votes against her. What is sinking her nomination is that the opposition stretches across a unified right, a chunk of the center and then part of the hard left. Really hard to cobble together a confirmation facing three pronged opposition like that.
Feb 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Quite the journey between the first statement at 11:33 AM this morning to 11:58 to now 5:29 PM. Presumably we will get a third one now from the AG’s office shortly.
Feb 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Hawley has been trying to wrap himself in Trump as much as possible and vote against Biden more than any other Republican Senator. Despite that, CPAC’s totally non-predictive Straw Poll sans Trump gives Hawley a whole 3%. He’s not exactly catching fire w/ the base he is courting. We went through this in 2019 with Gillibrand in particular on the left. She didn’t really gain anything by voting against every nominee. Hawley banking that the reward on the right will be greater, but thus far we haven’t really seen much evidence for that.
Feb 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Almost hilarious how much this pops up considering how easy it is to disprove with a quick glance at the ship’s manifest (for fun, the cargo’s net worth in today’s money would be $11.1 million) encyclopedia-titanica.org/cargo-manifest… But just in cast you are disapponted in the lack of a mummy: the ship’s manifest does list 76 cases of dragon's blood belonging to Brown Brothers & Company which was an investment bank. Why exactly they were shipping dragon’s blood though is beyond me... 🤷🏼‍♂️
Feb 26, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Not exactly a critical component to a statewide victory as it accounted for just 0.74% of the statewide vote in 2020, but Biden made notable gains in what are essentially the two DFL bases in the county (The Red Lake Reservation and Bemidji) to shift the county by 6.6 points ImageImageImageImage Bemidji itself (which Biden carried 53.3-42.2) accounted for 29.37% of the countywide Presidential vote in 2020. If you add the 5 precincts that make up the Lower Red Lake Unorganized Territory (which Biden carried 94.1-3.7) you account for 38.9% of the county-wide vote.
Feb 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Since @TheMuppets are on everyone’s mind, a reminder that @franksinatra once recorded the song Bein’ Green. open.spotify.com/track/1YrcdJX5… As did @itstonybennett in a duet with @KermitTheFrog: open.spotify.com/track/0TlciUGv…
Feb 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
Another tale of an affluent MN suburb moving left in the Trump era: #SD53. Obama +4.7 to Clinton +12.5 to Biden +21.5. Went from being ~3 points to the right of the state in 2012 to over 14 points to the left in 2020. #SD53 was considerably wider in 2020 than 2016, but still ran well behind the top of the ticket.
Feb 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
75-20 on Greenfield. I am missing an aye, will update when I figure that out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… The yeas and nays there are correct, it is just that one of the blank ones are an aye. The other 4 didn't vote.
Feb 22, 2021 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
Hyde-Smith an Aye on Greenfield 👀 And Young is an aye. This will easily pass cloture.
Feb 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Possible maybe the WH knows the nomination is going down anyhow? Though, if that is the case here then why not just pull the nomination. To follow this logic though: maybe you leave her out to dry to help get Haaland through? If you can convince Sanders to back her out of committee, maybe you let it fail on the floor by however many votes to give Senators a chance to oppose someone to get room to back another?
Feb 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It would be pretty hard to justify anything other than a 4-3 Biden map (that was plausibly 4-3 Trump in 2016). The question may be: how far to the right of the state would the GOP demand the median district be? Maybe a world where you hand then 3 safe R+>20 seats insulated from a big DFL wave and then make seat 4 a Biden +3 seat which would be R+4 compared to the state. A map that relativly favors the GOP vs statewide performance, though still roughly reflecting overall partisanship?