Aaron Booth Profile picture
I am an Actor, reporter for that one site & sometimes for that other one. I also consult for that one company. Come for the maps; stay for the bad takes.
11 Mar
And Graham is an aye on Haaland cloture... I thought I saw that right the first time but wasn't sure.
So, if everyone but Burr votes again on this one, expect it to be a 53-46 vote to advance Haaland.
Sullivan joins Murkowski, Collins and Graham in voting to advance Haaland.
Read 4 tweets
11 Mar
Collins is an aye on Becerra discharge. Romney, Portman cast their first votes today against Biden nominees
Murkowski breaks with Collins and votes no to join Romney and Portman.
Still waiting on Burr and Cortez-Masto to vote.
Read 5 tweets
9 Mar
29 nays so far on Garland for cloture.
Looks like that will be the total. I'm guessing Cramer is out of town and will miss this vote as well.
Including today's two cloture votes, Capito and McConnell have still backed all but one Biden nominee that has come to the floor.
Read 9 tweets
9 Mar
There is at least one other Titanic survivor that I am aware of having been elected to a State Legislature after the sinking: Robert Williams Daniel, a Conservative Democrat, was elected in 1935 to the Virginia Senate where he would serve until his death in 1940.
Coincidentally, he was saved in the same lifeboat (boat 7) as future Minnesota State Representative John Pillsbury Snyder.
Considering there were only 28 individuals on that lifeboat, it’s quite something that there were two future state legislators aboard.
Read 5 tweets
9 Mar
That Titanic survivor went on to be elected to one term in the Minnesota State House in 1926. He would then lose reelection 2 years later by 102 votes. The district was based in Minneapolis, but I have not further specifics on that. ImageImage
Many years after his death, his wife gave this 1980 interview:
Of course, don't take everything she said as gospel, though based on one detail she gives here: her husband was in the inside bunk and she was against the hull, so the iceberg would have passed just inches away from the bed in which she was lying.
Read 10 tweets
4 Mar
Motion to proceed on the key legislation tab. We all know exactly how this vote will play out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
If all 100 Senators are present and voting, expect this to wind up 51-50
As expected: 50-50. Waiting for Harris to take the President's chair from Leahy to wrap this up and break the tie.
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
As of this moment, Bernie Sanders and Mitch McConnell have voted aye on the exact same number of confirmation votes (11/12) thus far in 2021. They opposed different nominees however: McConnell opposed Mayorkas (confirmed 56-43) and Sanders opposed Vilsack (confirmed 92-7).
Burr & Capito are the other two who have only opposed one nominee on a confirmation floor vote, though Capito also missed a vote and Burr missed 2 votes.
You then have Cornyn, Fischer, Young & Blunt (though Blunt missed a vote as well) who have only voted against the confirmation of 2 nominees.
Read 11 tweets
1 Mar
I’m just not sure on what planet they think they have the votes in either committee or on the floor. Right now it really seems like there are probably 53 votes against her.
What is sinking her nomination is that the opposition stretches across a unified right, a chunk of the center and then part of the hard left. Really hard to cobble together a confirmation facing three pronged opposition like that.
If you had Bernie Sanders and Kyrsten Sinema on board, the two committees would have held the vote last week rather than postponing it at the last minute and it would be moving to the floor with pressure being put on Murkowski as the swing vote.
Read 4 tweets
28 Feb
Quite the journey between the first statement at 11:33 AM this morning to 11:58 to now 5:29 PM.
Presumably we will get a third one now from the AG’s office shortly.
Before that, we now get another Cuomo statement, this time from the Governor himself:
Read 4 tweets
28 Feb
Hawley has been trying to wrap himself in Trump as much as possible and vote against Biden more than any other Republican Senator. Despite that, CPAC’s totally non-predictive Straw Poll sans Trump gives Hawley a whole 3%. He’s not exactly catching fire w/ the base he is courting.
We went through this in 2019 with Gillibrand in particular on the left. She didn’t really gain anything by voting against every nominee. Hawley banking that the reward on the right will be greater, but thus far we haven’t really seen much evidence for that.
Even Cotton and Cruz have each backed at least one Biden nomination out of the 10 for the Senate has voted on final confirmation. (Counting Greenfield’s 2 votes as 1) Even Cotton has backed 3 (Austin, Vilsack and Haines).
Read 4 tweets
27 Feb
Almost hilarious how much this pops up considering how easy it is to disprove with a quick glance at the ship’s manifest (for fun, the cargo’s net worth in today’s money would be $11.1 million) encyclopedia-titanica.org/cargo-manifest…
But just in cast you are disapponted in the lack of a mummy: the ship’s manifest does list 76 cases of dragon's blood belonging to Brown Brothers & Company which was an investment bank. Why exactly they were shipping dragon’s blood though is beyond me... 🤷🏼‍♂️
Hate to disappoint but I have an answer now here too: Dragon’s Blood is a resin which makes sense as they were also shipping gum on the same manifest.
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
Not exactly a critical component to a statewide victory as it accounted for just 0.74% of the statewide vote in 2020, but Biden made notable gains in what are essentially the two DFL bases in the county (The Red Lake Reservation and Bemidji) to shift the county by 6.6 points ImageImageImageImage
Bemidji itself (which Biden carried 53.3-42.2) accounted for 29.37% of the countywide Presidential vote in 2020. If you add the 5 precincts that make up the Lower Red Lake Unorganized Territory (which Biden carried 94.1-3.7) you account for 38.9% of the county-wide vote.
Biden over-performed Smith who lost the county by 6 points after narrowly carrying the county in 2018. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
23 Feb
Another tale of an affluent MN suburb moving left in the Trump era: #SD53. Obama +4.7 to Clinton +12.5 to Biden +21.5. Went from being ~3 points to the right of the state in 2012 to over 14 points to the left in 2020.
#SD53 was considerably wider in 2020 than 2016, but still ran well behind the top of the ticket.
In all but Oakdale P-1 and Landfall did Biden run ahead of Kent. The GOP ran a former Mayor of Woodbury which makes up a lot of the district and probably helped narrow at least part of the margin.
Read 7 tweets
22 Feb
75-20 on Greenfield. I am missing an aye, will update when I figure that out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The yeas and nays there are correct, it is just that one of the blank ones are an aye. The other 4 didn't vote.
Updated: Blunt was the 75th Aye. Blackburn, Murray, Blunt, Toomey and Moran didn't vote. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
Hyde-Smith an Aye on Greenfield 👀
And Young is an aye. This will easily pass cloture.
And Johnson.
Read 9 tweets
22 Feb
Possible maybe the WH knows the nomination is going down anyhow? Though, if that is the case here then why not just pull the nomination.
To follow this logic though: maybe you leave her out to dry to help get Haaland through? If you can convince Sanders to back her out of committee, maybe you let it fail on the floor by however many votes to give Senators a chance to oppose someone to get room to back another?
So then Murkowski can say “I opposed one controversial Biden nominee in Tanden and then backed Haaland because Congressman Young supported her” or something to that effect?
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
It would be pretty hard to justify anything other than a 4-3 Biden map (that was plausibly 4-3 Trump in 2016). The question may be: how far to the right of the state would the GOP demand the median district be?
Maybe a world where you hand then 3 safe R+>20 seats insulated from a big DFL wave and then make seat 4 a Biden +3 seat which would be R+4 compared to the state. A map that relativly favors the GOP vs statewide performance, though still roughly reflecting overall partisanship?
Inevitably, such a median seat would trend left if current trends continue, so the 4-3 GOP window could be limited, but yet enough for then to take it as a win?
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
This is where an all at-large Congressional race in MN would get sticky for either party. Would either party want this mess?
Big caveat: there isn't the quirky FL/GOP/D split like 1932 today, so I would guess the winning percentages would be >40%'s rather than in the 30%'s
Read 9 tweets
22 Feb
Guessing we will have a better guess in the next couple days when we learn if Sanders is a yes. If he is a no, she likely is at least 2 votes short on the floor and likely gets an unfavorable recommendation from his committee.
People on here are focusing on Manchin because that’s what’s “cool” on hard-left Twitter, but they are ignoring Sanders who was not exactly seeming like a yes during committee and his no vote would mean Manchin wouldn’t even wind up voting on the floor anyhow on the nom.
Pretty textbook putting the cart before the horse here.
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
Let’s say it is August/September and the Legislature starts its inevitable special session to redistrict. Considering both parties could have a lot to lose here, might there be an incentive to compromise on a reasonable 4-3 Biden map that protects most incumbents? 🤷🏼‍♂️
The 1932 process involved each party holding a statewide primary to endorse the number of candidates for the number of seats. Involving 9 Dems, 9 R’s 9 FL’ers and 3 Communists. In the general, voters got 9 votes (one for each district) and the top 9 got seats.
Read 11 tweets