Eschews obfuscation. Espouses elucidation. Writes about football. Kisses and tells.
Feb 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Saints are currently $83m over the cap. Per , if they woke up this morning and cut every player who represented a cap savings, they’d still be $35-40m over. And then they’d need to sign ~40 more dudes at vet minimum, which would push them back to $65m+. OverTheCap.com
There is literally no way for them to get cap compliant in 2024 that doesn’t involve stealing heavily from their 2025 and 2026 cap space via restructures and post-June-1 cuts. Which looks like this— locking themselves into two more years of Derek Carr.
They don’t have a choice.
Jan 5 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
One of my followers shared a story with me that, with his permission, I wanted to pass on.
He was a slight underdog in the title game in a league that doesn't have a trade deadline. An RB was available that would increase his projection enough to make him a slight favorite.
He had a trade on the table that got him that RB without costing a single starter. He asked me what I thought. I told him it wasn't terrible, but I did think it was a decent value loss and if it were me, I'd pass.
I walked through the possibility matrix on Win-Now trades:
Aug 16, 2023 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
One of the most amazing superpowers of society is the ability to create a general sense (below the level of reason, below even the level of language) that certain things are “For You” or “Not For You” without ever explicitly saying as much.
Not amazing in a good way.
My wife reads at least 40 books a year. Recently she’s mixed in a few popular sci fi books and discovered that actually she fucking loves sci fi.
Sci fi is great! No other genre is as good at clever sociological observations. Future as framework for understanding the present.
Feb 27, 2023 • 44 tweets • 8 min read
Since 2010, here’s every instance where a team drafted a QB in the Top 12 and then had another Top-10 pick within two seasons. (I’m going since 2010 because this will cover the period since the new CBA and, therefore, the new rookie wage scale.)
In 2010, the Rams drafted Sam Bradford first overall. In 2012, they earned the #2 overall pick.
Did they think they had their guy? Yes, Bradford won ORoY in 2010.
Were they right? No.
Should they have been in the market for another QB? Yes.
Jun 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Yes. Strongly against normative statements in dynasty.
When you join a league you accept basic obligations to your leaguemates. Basic reciprocity, no undermining the league, etc. But there’s no such obligation to play the way (a subset of) your leaguemates would prefer you play.
The big one I see is a toxic manifestation of the “there is no off-season” mentality. If one of my leaguemates wants to check out from May to July, that’s absolutely fine unless it was strictly spelled out and agreed to before joining. Different people like different things.
Jun 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
My takeaway: there’s no sub-sample size of “games to end the season” that is as predictive as just using the full sample.
And given that full-season stats are easier to generate *in addition* to being more predictive, there’s no benefit to “Last X Games” splits.
(Love or hate these notifications? Follow or mute #HarstadBlogs as desired.)
I started dating my wife when I was seventeen years old. We ended our second or third date with a moonlit walk along the beach– not so much because I was a romantic as because it was close, it was free, it was private, and I was loathe to let an enjoyable night end.
Jul 23, 2021 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
With the Olympics set to kick off, I have been positively inundated by messages from people demanding I explain Goodhart's Law in an easy, accessible manner. My pager and telegraph have been beeping off the hook. I had to disconnect my fax machine.
Originally expressed as "Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes", Goodhart's Law is now most often now stated as "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
Jul 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
One of the best lessons I learned is to first have a goal, and then consider whether my actions further that goal, are neutral, or hinder that goal. And then try to do more of the former and less of the latter.
The guy who taught me probably didn’t even realize I was listening.
There are few things that feel as satisfying as responding to someone who is rude with some Sick Burns.
But my goal is to live a drama-free life where I am mostly liked and widely respected. Sick Burns prove orthogonal to that goal. So I just think them and chuckle to myself.
Jul 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Very very very important point:
A large portfolio full of risky assets is not risky. It is safe. The bigger the portfolio, the safer it is.
*(provided they’re all independent of each other, which for fantasy purposes they usually are.)
*A* rookie pick is risky. You might get Mike Evans. You might get Sammy Watkins.
*SIX* rookie picks are not risky. Some of them will be Mike Evans. Some of them will be Sammy Watkins. By and large, you can estimate how many of each you can expect with reasonable confidence.
Jun 14, 2021 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Heuristics are simple rules of thumb to help quickly and efficiently make good decisions in complex environments. I often say I'm #TeamHeuristics instead of #TeamProjections; projections attempt to quantify the complexity, heuristics attempt to simplify the complexity.
A good heuristic should be almost like a slogan. The underlying concept can be quite nuanced, but the expression of the concept should be simple. Ideally, it could be expressed in 6-10 words.
My go-to example: "Draft for talent, trade for need". Six words.
Mar 6, 2021 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Volume is not more important than efficiency. Most of the time, volume *is* efficiency.
My favorite Russell Wilson comp is Fran Tarkenton for a number of reasons. Stylistically they were so similar. Primarily pocket passers but with fantastic wheels. Running for their lives behind bad lines, mostly playing with meh receivers. Excelled early, super durable.
Through age 32, Wilson has played 144 games. Tarkenton had 167, mostly because he started at 21 (which was absolutely unheard of).
Russell Wilson's ANY/A+ (era-adjusted ANY/A) is 112. Frank Tarkenton's was... an identical 112.
Wilson: 33,946 passing
Tarkenton: 31,135 passing
Feb 3, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
One thing I love to do with Dan's monthly dynasty value charts is track the change in my players' values over time. Most of my roster management decisions are aimed at making sure that number keeps going up. If I succeed, I'm going to win a lot of championships as a byproduct!
Some might protest that value isn't points. True! But if value doesn't eventually translate into points, it goes down and you've failed your "keep going up" goal.
Over long timelines it's impossible for your roster to keep getting more valuable without resulting in lots of wins.
Feb 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So the two that immediately come to mind are Unitas / Berry / Moore and Manning / Harrison / Wayne. The first trio especially because Moore was just so versatile.
But as a dark horse pick, how about Daryle Lamonica / Fred Biletnikoff / Warren Wells?
You’re probably familiar with Hall of Famer Biletnikoff. And Lamonica, “the Mad Bomber”, was in many ways the proto-Mahomes. Just zero football conscience, never saw a deep window he wasn’t going to try to fit a ball into. Paired with an uncanny ability to elude pressure.
Feb 1, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Do you just really need a guy in your corner right now? Because I can totally be your guy in the corner. My mentions are always open. If you feel embarrassed, my DMs are open, too. Nobody in there but me.
I might not be able to help. But it certainly can't hurt.
Standing offer.
I've had some offer to chip in a few bucks for help. I appreciate the sentiment, but all help is free. I help because I want to help!
Moreover, my family has been doing fine. But many others have not. If you do feel moved to give, here's a worthy cause: chicagohomeless.org
Nov 18, 2020 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
Five and a half years ago, I live-tweeted a dynasty rankings update. It was fun, and it's cool to have a historical archive of my thought process at the time. I think it holds up pretty well.
I have fantasy value for every player back to 1985. McCaffrey has the most fantasy value of any running back through age 23.
Among retired players, 11 of the top 12 had more fantasy value *AFTER* age 23. Usually much more. I don't think his value is even half-gone yet.
Nov 17, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
High on both Swift *and* Higgins.
Not worried about CMC. Was really painful to part with him. The advantage he gives even over the 2nd/3rd best players at the position cannot be overstated. It’s virtually irreplaceable.
Some aspects of the deal were unique to my team. I viewed it as CMC for Swift and Higgins, plus Evans for the 1st/3rd as juice to get the deal done.
My other WRs are now AJBrown, Thomas, McLaurin, Higgins, Golladay, Aiyuk, and Robby Anderson, so Evans was more expendable.
Nov 17, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I'm possibly an insane person, but I just traded Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans for D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, and a late 1st and 3rd.
Do with this information what you will.
Digging more into this deal.
The other team is not going all-in on chasing a championship. In fact, I am the team with the better title odds (2nd-best in the league right now). And losing McCaffrey noticeably hurts them.
Nov 17, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Cordarrelle Patterson has played 18 games at Soldier Field. Gale Sayers played 34 games there. Devin Hester played 60.
Cordarrelle Patterson has as many kickoff return touchdowns at Soldier Field (4) as Gale Sayers and Devin Hester combined (2 each).
Cordarrelle Patterson is almost certainly going to finish this year with at least 15 kickoff returns and at least 28 yards per return for the seventh time in his career.
That’d be as many such seasons as any two players in history combined.
