1. I write w/ @AnnelleSheline on the risks of regional war and how the Biden admin must respond. The brutality of full-scale war has been largely contained within Gaza but that could soon change.

thenation.com/article/world/… 2. Israel has inflicted some significant losses on Iran and Hezbollah, but so far, the latter have focused on symbolic responses, such as launching missiles and drones that took hours to reach Israel. They have not yet sought a direct conflict with Israel.

1. I'm seeing a lot of Global South v. Global North & climate reparations takes. Maybe it's 'speaking truth to power.' It's probably great for personal brands. But I doubt it will help bring relief. Pakistan gets one chance to rally the world.

A short thread on advocacy. 2. Guilt is a potent (albeit potentially unhealthy) tool of persuasion in personal interactions. It's not very effective for sustained collective action. Us vs. Them narratives are great for organizing but not if the folks you need to rally are pushed into the 'them' category.

1. Time for a long thread on the US-Taliban agreement. Both sides dislike it, violate it, & refuse to formally give it up.

It's a *political* agreement between the US & Taliban which placed duties on the Afghan gov as a reluctant 3rd party beneficiary.

state.gov/the-death-of-a… 2. The agreement included affirmative obligations (eg, TB release up to 1,000 prisoners, US leave by May 1), affirmative obligations requiring 3rd party cooperation (eg, intra-Afghan talks), & conditional/discretionary obligations (eg, comprehensive ceasefire, + US-TB relations)

1. The killing of al Qaeda terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri is the product of years of work & heroism. We should remember those Americans who made the ultimate sacrifice over the years. But we must also recognize how wrong the conventional groupthink was about post-withdrawal CT.

https://twitter.com/AdamNoahWho/status/1554225143576231937

2. Critics of Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan insisted it was nearly impossible to conduct effective CT w/o continuing a 20-year failed counterinsurgency. A few of us argued that CT was consuming disproportionate resources in $ & lives. It was a lonely position.

1. So "anti-Americanism" will be a feature of international coverage of Pakistan's politics for the foreseeable future & I have a feeling it is going to be sensationalized. So I am writing a thread from inside Pakistan to try to define what my experience suggests it is & isn't. 2. Let's say "anti-Americanism" is a pronounced suspicion or hostility towards Washington's global role backed by anything from facts to conspiracy theories.

This is understood conceptually in Pakistan & RARELY applied to individual Americans. More here:

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/04/03/imr…

1. LtGen Nasser Khan Janjua takes the stage in his role as former National Security Advisor. 2. Janjua claims power politics are at play in the form of containment of China and preventing the resurgence of Russia.

1. China’s Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi is addressing the Islamabad Security Dialogue’s National Security Advisors session on Asian security. Jake Sullivan on the program but seemingly absent. 2. Kezhi claims states should abandon absolute security and focus on an international system centered around the UN. Claims some states have created “bloc confrontation” by reviving a “Cold War mentality.”

1. Discussions about Afghanistan's economy are prone to the same futile search for a simple panacea as all other policy debates concerning Afghanistan.

Access to forex reserves, aid, sanctions relief, & better Taliban governance will collectively--not single-handedly--help. 2. DAB could have access to all of its reserves today and Afghanistan would still be in an economic crisis. But forex access would allow DAB to shape macroeconomic policy & a fighting chance at stabilizing the Afghani.

1. Using a country’s foreign reserves to compensate 9/11 victims may make sense in the windowless confines of a courtroom but defies basic logic. To the world, this looks like nothing short of theft, not compromise or sound legal reasoning.

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… 2. Making an innocent party pay for a crime they should not commit should offend every American. Please spare me replies about property interest, material support, joint & several liability, etc. I understand the convoluted legalese arguments behind this action. I reject it.

1. Another important hearing today. How should the US react to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan?

Sen. Murphy supports Pres. Biden's decision to withdrawal and the collapse of the Afghan government after 20 yrs demonstrates another 20 wouldn't work.
foreign.senate.gov/hearings/afgha… 2. Murphy shifts to humanitarian and economic crisis. It could kill more Afghans than the past 20 years of war.

"No country can cope with the loss of 75% of public sector support overnight."

1. I won't amplify empty platitudes about helping Afghanistan with no actions attached. We need data & actionable policy. That's why I am sharing this important @USIP panel which you should listen to in its entirety. Here is the TLDR:
usip.org/events/avertin… 2. For some context on how drastically the faucet turned off:

"Right now we can only get 25k a month out of our bank accounts here, whereas we need about a million dollars a week to deliver the aid that we need to deliver." - Vicki Aken, Afghanistan CD for
@RESCUEorg.

1. TLDR bc contrary to popular belief articles go further than the title!

@wendyrsherman is visiting Pakistan at a time of competing narratives in Washington & Islamabad on US-Pakistan relations--both of which include self-serving omissions of fact.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/30/pak… 2. President Biden has yet to call PM Imran Khan. Washington views picking up the phone as a carrot & screening the call as a stick. But when POTUS snubs a civilian counterpart in a place like Pakistan it can have long-lasting ramifications for the civ-mil imbalance.

1. My problem with most criticism of the OTH approach is it is often predicated on the falsehood that boots-on-the-ground made for a more effective counterterrorism strategy. Where was the snark about all the limitations & failures of the last 20 years?

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/30/ove… 2. This article does a good job summarizing the various critiques of OTH so this isn't a criticism of the reporting. It includes a key pt: "Even when it had thousands of troops on the ground in Afghanistan, Centcom did a poor job of differentiating terrorists from innocents..."

Thread (red pen)
“In my experience, we just have a lack of strategic patience as a nation and as a government,” said Ryan Crocker. "Sadly, in the region, our adversaries have come to count on us not staying the course.”

Yes. Because they live there. 1/9

nytimes.com/2021/08/10/wor… "The result, according to some analysts and former United States officials, is a perception among both friends and enemies that you can never guarantee how long the United States will stick around."

Yes. Because we don't live there. 2/9

1. Follow here for live tweeting of the HFAC hearing on the US-Afghanistan relationship following the military withdrawal. Begins at 10 am EST. Tweets will be sans commentary (I will share my thoughts later).

foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=95… 2. They have begun by debating whether it is required to wear a mask in committee. Rep. Green is submitting medical journal articles in support of not wearing masks indoors. Must. Stick. To. Sans. Commentary. Thread...

1. Follow for live tweets of the SFRC hearing with Zalmay Khalilzad:
foreign.senate.gov/hearings/us-po… 2. Menendez: only way for the Taliban to avoid pariah status is to engage in the democratic process, reach a peace deal, and respect women's rights. He does not envision continued aid if the Taliban gain power & govern outside of these parameters.

1. There's 2 important upcoming dates so far as a withdrawal deadline. One is May 1. The other is an invisible date after which it will be "logistically unfeasible" to withdraw by May absent earlier action. We are inching dangerously close to that date & its severe consequences . 2. Policy reviews are important but the world doesn't stop spinning while they occur nor do the opportunity costs. The ground consequences of unilaterally passing May 1 are clear. But there is another one: he will then have to pick what is labeled an "arbitrary" time to leave.

1. TLDR: What will it take for Pakistan to pressure the Taliban into a ceasefire? Pressure, concessions, clear priorities, & ultimately cooperation from Pakistan. A very tall order. lawfareblog.com/what-will-it-t… 2. Many Afghanistan policy proposals require some action by Pakistan. But as usual there is a disconnect where Washington believes it can demand Pakistan "do more" without providing much in return and Islamabad thinks half-measures will suffice. It is a destructive dance.

1. WHAT THE AFGHANISTAN STUDY GROUP FINAL REPORT MISSED:

inkstickmedia.com/what-the-afgha… 2. "A valid case can be made that the Taliban have not fully lived up to all conditions within the US-Taliban agreement...but walking away from the US-Taliban agreement all but guarantees a return to the failed US-led counterinsurgency of the last two decades."

1. Calls to remain in Afghanistan & make "modest adjustments to U.S. force posture" begin. This is the obvious conclusion of a residual force. The politics & mechanisms of decision-making rarely land on doing more with less. Forever war is incremental.

wsj.com/articles/will-… 2. Such proposals & the ASG report somehow believe that Washington will achieve with a few thousand troops what it couldn't with 100,000. The lull in violence directed at foreign troops has resulted in a sort of liquid courage, but it is solely a result of the US-Taliban deal.

1. So I see that the nation & #civmil twitter is discussing extremism, radicalization, & White supremacy in the US military. I have no formal expertise in this area but I was a Jewish enlisted Marine so I will share some things that I observed. 2. I cannot reiterate enough that I am not an expert on this particular issue nor am I drawing from data beyond personal experience & anecdotal observations. But I think sharing some of my observations could offer some insights to those thinking about these questions.