Yesterday the System Operator released this year's Future Energy Scenarios package, a now decade-long tradition that energy wonks look forward to more than Christmas. What's new this year? /1 Firstly, the ESO didn't set out scenarios this time, but pathways to decarbonisation. They made the very wise decision to keep the FES acronym however, as FEP is rather unfortunate. /2

I think this is a really important point; Starmer didn't structure his campaign and indeed his leadership to win the most votes, he structured it to achieve power. All the stuff about the wide-but-shallow victory has to be understood in this context. /1

https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1809142197796696215

Modern campaigns involve mapping not simply who's voted for what, but the values and unconscious drives of voters across the country, how they relate to voting preferences and how they respond to messages and policies. /2

An interesting argument from @RenewableUKCEO and @CSkidmoreUK, claiming that it's time to move away from CFD auctions for offshore wind. I disagree strongly. Let me set out why. /1
utilityweek.co.uk/one-size-fits-… Firstly, Dan and Chris's initial argument is that offshore wind projects are now simply so large that a significant share of their investment is in development to get projects to the point where they can participate in an auction. /2

I want to offer a short theory of why this has happened, not because I'm sure I'm right but because I want to test it more broadly. Fundamentally, it's about the structure of the State and how the Conservatives have failed to reform it. /1

https://twitter.com/James_BG/status/1798979167272472616

Under the Conservatives in the 80s and 90s and again under Labour, various novel regulatory functions were created and spun out to help manage a demand for State oversight, including of the newly privatised industries. /2

The thing that intrigues me about Great British Energy - because I'm really cool - is the governance. There's an explicit statement here that Government will own the shares but won't be represented on the Board. /1 politico.eu/article/labour… This makes it very different to, say, the UK Infrastructure Bank where there are seats explicitly reserved for civil servants to oversee it, and a very clear mandate from the Treasury setting out what it can and can't do. /2

INTERCONNECTORS: an exciting policy problem facing whoever becomes the next Government. There's lots of projects in the works, but very few are actually happening. Why? /1 utilityweek.co.uk/linkedout-ofge… Firstly, a reminder. Interconnectors are - for the UK - typically undersea cables that connect our networks to those of our friends and frenemies on the Continent. They let both sides sell their power when it's cheap and buy power when their prices are high. /2

Very much enjoyed speaking the Lords Science & Technology committee yesterday with @david_joffe, although watching back I moved my hands so much it looks like I was encouraging the Lords to guess which cup the energy system was under. Here's a brief summary of what I said. /1 Long duration energy storage - defined as something that can store energy for at least 8 hrs (6 if you're DESNZ) - will be critical to the future of the energy system. Its role will be to replace some of the functionality gas plants have in the current system. /2

These findings are extremely worrying. Much of the Government and the CCC's work on the impact of heat pumps on generation and networks assumes a reasonably high level of flex. /1

utilityweek.co.uk/heat-pump-flex… This trial was intended to study the volumes of flex available from getting consumers to switch their heat pump off at times of peak demand. More than half of participants felt uncomfortable doing so. /2

There's lots of interesting things in today's NAO report on home heating decarbonisation, but there's one point I want to highlight in particular: evidence. /1
nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl… DESNZ is due to make a decision on the strategic role of hydrogen in home heating in 2026. The NAO points out that on current plans it won't have enough evidence to do so. And this is a disaster for both sides of the debate. /2

HAPPY REMA DAY! What does the Government's new consultation mean for the sector? Some high-level thoughts. /1 Firstly, the below diagram gives the status of each option originally considered as part of the work. The key takeaway for many players will be that nodal pricing is dead, but zonal remains on the table /2

While I'm sure people are going to be making a big fuss about the framing of this today, the important thing to emphasise is that Labour would've done exactly the same. You need a bunch of standby plant for a low carbon grid. /1
thetimes.co.uk/article/new-ge… Estimates for the amount vary, but most analysis I've seen points to 20-30GW of fast-reacting gas on standby for a period of overcast skies and low wind that lasts longer than even the longest LDES technology. /2

Labour have finally announced the cancellation of the £28bn figure that the Tories have been using to give them grief and replaced it with a £23.7bn figure that will definitely prevent the Tories from doing the same thing. Let’s dig into what this means. /1 Firstly, as should be obvious this is a relatively small reduction in ambition justifiable on the grounds that the Tories have turned the country into an uninvestable basket case where nothing works and prosperity is a distant dream. /2

If the Government does actually drop the Clean Heat Market Mechanism, it would be a mistake. Others, such as @DrSimEvans, have outlined the carbon case, but I want to focus on why the CHMM is a remarkably pragmatic policy. /1
ft.com/content/25176b… The Government is currently subsidising heat pumps to the tune of £7.5k a pop under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. If it continues to do so when heat pump installations hit 600k a year in 2028 - its target - it will be paying £4.5bn/year. This is extraordinarily expensive. /2

TODAY’S THE DAY THAT OFGEM BANS BATTERIES BY ACCIDENT: a story about one arm of Government having no idea what everyone else is doing and ploughing on regardless. /1 Today marks the closure of Ofgem’s consultation on updated guidance applicable to the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition. With such a manifestly charismatic title, surely this will be just regulatory housekeeping? You would think so, but no. /2 ofgem.gov.uk/publications/t…

COP28 AND OUR NEW ELECTRIC EARTH: some thoughts, now the dust has settled a little. /1 Amidst the back and forth of arguments over the lack of language on whether fossil fuels are down or out, one key accomplishment of the talks was a global commitment to triple renewable energy capacity globally to 11,000GW by 2030. /2

While it's trivially obvious that holding COP in a major fossil fuel producer was always going to lead to statements like this one, let's briefly examine it for probity. You can see IEA work for the longer form of this thread. /1

https://twitter.com/dpcarrington/status/1731260240455221291

The right way of structuring this problem is to first recognise that different fossil fuels have different uses and therefore their phase-outs have different implications. /2

I am delighted to announce the launch of our paper, “Reinventing Retail”, available at the link below. A brief summary here for those of you who want to whet your appetites before clicking through. /1

stonehavenglobal.com/insights/reinv… The UK’s energy retail market is in a parlous state, and has been for some time. No-one believes that it’s working; retailers aren’t making any money, innovation is hard and many consumers are at the sharp end. /2

WHAT DOES THE PRIME MINISTER’S SPATIAL ENERGY PLAN MEAN? /1 Last week, amongst what could be kindly called other controversial announcements, the Prime Minister committed to bringing forward the ‘first ever’ spatial plan for energy infrastructure. /2

Having a had a chance to pull my thoughts together, (a) this is a disaster (b) it was a preventable one, and (c) the task now is to restore confidence in the CFD regime. /1 theguardian.com/environment/20… Firstly, last night Government tried to tell journalists that this failure was the fault of the developers because lower costs projects were being developed elsewhere in Europe. /2

Going to wait for the detail of this, but there are (at least) two ways of thinking about this move. /1
theguardian.com/environment/20… The first is that it doesn't really matter. The announcements today relate to the yellow and red bits of the below chart; you can announce 100 licences but it isn't going to magically fill up the oil reserves of the North Sea again. The basin is nearly tapped out. /2

A few quick thoughts on this, which is an important move to solve the problem of EPCs being increasingly worthless. /1
on.ft.com/3Y8vBSH Firstly, a hearty LOL @ this sentence: "We remain committed to our environmental objectives but we cannot overburden landlords facing cost of living pressures." If only landlords had a valuable asset they could sell to make money! /2