$rick. For those trashing bombshells here is some simple math. The company next year will have 16 bombshells of which I think 3 will be leased. At 13 bombshells and 6 mm of sales average (which is what they should be doing or someone else woild be doing in space) that’s 78 in rev $rick if if we can generate 6 pct of sales in rent that’s 4.68 in rent triple net. At a six cap that’s 75 mm of value. I don’t think the opco is completely worthless either and could be sold to strategic or pe. I put a range of values of 25-50 and that’s on todays bad margins.

I have taken some time to collect my thoughts on our favorite Swedish stock... $CDON..... a🧵with our updated thoughts: 1/ 1) This Company has literally had everything thrown at it. A sick CEO, fraudulent merchant(s), a marketing "guru" who knew nothing about e-commerce, and then an e-commerce market that was then down 20 pct... That pretty much feels like the kitchen sink....
$CDON

1/ I was ruminating on the recent quarter of $CDON and how to think about valuation. It has been our experience that the market never really gets SOTP right.

$FCAU
$PAR
$RICK
$APG
$CDON
$IDT 2/ In every single case there were biz's with a diff cost of capital that the market could not value individually -- bc had a diff margins structure / growth rate/ or investment plan. The market has a way of throwing up its hands and saying - I dont know!

@joelmcohen @NeckarValue I totally agree with this "show not tell" IDEA. We have spent 10 years being ourself and its basically a family office. Does it mean that ourselves is not palatable to institutional capital? I think there is originality to our process and certainly demonstrable effort being put @joelmcohen @NeckarValue In. I think many "emerging" managers....10 years in I definitely feel like im still emerging given that we have had a few pivots/rebuilds/rehauls....think that one of the biggest issues with institutional capital is that the process seems arbitrary and there is no feedback.

Some food for thought on PAR:

In the 4th quarter, BRINK activated 885 new locations and added 2.3 mm of ARR. That means the average store added 2,600 ARPU per YEAR. If we add 8,000 locations in Fiscal 2021 (Remember all of backlog will get worked down in 2021) per call. $PAR This is approx. 21mm of incremental ARR. Incremental ARPU seems low considering DQ is approx 3,400-3,500. And remember, any price increases to existing is pure incremental ARPU. We suspect Brink can EASILY double ARR in 2021.T his means ARR exiting 2021 is ~60 mm $PAR

@joelmcohen Joel-This is a great question. I think the answer is simpler than you think. Consider some of the best track records in the investment business: Greenblatt, Weschler, IGSB, Chris Hohn, Prescott, SPO(before they got too big), Eddie (before all in on SHLD).What was the commonality? @joelmcohen Concentration, Conviction, and an iconoclast who was super passionate about stock picking and competitive at the top.