🇪🇺🇺🇦 - Today EU ambassadors will meet to discuss the content of a 14th sanctions package on Russia - here's a quick thread about the main potential measures, their likely impact on Moscow and the way forward 🧵 [1/15] The big sanctions are already in place:
• Europe’s most impactful measures include a ban on Russian oil imports and curbs on the export of high-tech goods to Russia
• New sanctions will thus be limited in scope, focusing on finetuning current measures/imposing minor ones [2/15]

🇪🇺 - EU will publish list of critical technologies today - a key step to kickstart Europe's de-risking efforts vis à vis China
• A short thread with graphs on why this list matters, what we can expect, and what's next for EU de-risking plans 👇🧵 [1/8] • Publication of EU list of critical tech will be signal of bloc's willingness/ability to pursue de-risking
• List will provide concrete insights into EU thinking about what risk of doing business with China really is – a key question to answer before de-risking [2/8]

Must-read paper on the impact of sanctions on Russian oil exports - a quick summary 🧵with notes, key takeaways and (lots of) graphs 👇
Via - @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock @TaniaBabina @mironov_fm @itskhoki @Nataliia_Shapo @KSE_Institute
Link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… [1/9] - Sanctions on Russian oil exports - in the form of the EU embargo on Russian oil and the G7/EU price cap - are weighing heavily on Moscow's finances.
- The first quarter of 2023 marked the full implementation of the oil price cap and the EU embargo. [2/9]

Must-read study from @BOFITresearch's Heli Simola on Russian trade - here's a quick thread with graphs and key takeaways [1/8]
(spoiler - official Russian trade data have become unreliable, and Beijing is not helping Moscow) 👇🧵
publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/5… - In 2022 Western sanctions on Russia mostly hit the country's imports.
- Russian goods imports were down by about 20% year on year in February 2023 - highlighting the combined impact of sanctions, Russia's recession and company self-sanctioning [2/8]

Must-read @KSE_Institute chartbook with lots of data nuggets on situation of Russian economy and impact of sanctions - a quick thread with graphs🧵
Via @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock @Nataliia_Shapo @elinaribakova @JPavytska
▶️ Full chartbook: bit.ly/41wpdoM 👇 [1/13] TRADE
1 - Since a record-high US$83bn in the second quarter of 2022, Russia's trade balance has narrowed considerably – to US$29bn in January - March 2023.
- This reflects sanctions on Russia's energy exports, lower energy prices and pressures on production. [2/13]

Must-read paper from @IFRI_ on Russia's mining sector (and why it matters for the rest of the world) - a quick thread with notes, and lots of parallels with Russia's energy sector 👇🧵[1/9]
ifri.org/en/publication… ⛏️ - Russia produces 14% of the world's mining output, giving the country significant global leverage.
💎 - Russia has a leading position for palladium (38%), diamonds (30%), potash (20%), titanium (13%), nickel (11%) and gold (9%). [2/9]

This paper is a must-read to understand how Moscow has adapted to Western sanctions on energy exports - a 🧵with notes and graphs 👇
Via - @elinaribakova @IIF @ben_hilgenstock @KSE_Institute @TaniaBabina @Columbia_Biz @mironov_fm @IEBusiness @itskhoki @UCLA [1/7] • Russia's current-account surplus stood at its lowest level in December since the pandemic year of 2020 - highlighting a rapid deterioration of external environment
• This mostly reflects a steep rebound in imports after their collapse in March-June [2/7]

EU has decided to move forward with earlier proposal to screen investment proposals (most notably from China through its Belt and Road Initiative) - move is significant for several reasons [Thread 1/6] FDI screening decisions taken by member states - criteria include:
(a) critical infrastructure/supply or critical inputs such as energy, or
(b) implies access to sensitive information/ability to control information, or
(c) relates to freedom/pluralism of media [2/6]