LeftHandedOctopus Profile picture
Value-Oriented Special Situations™
May 22 4 tweets 2 min read
only ~27% of SPX stocks outperformed the index over the past month, 1st %ile since 2005.

source: Morgan Stanley quant team Image "Historically though, breadth at these low levels tends to mean revert, particularly when concentration in HF long portfolios is extreme. The top 50 HF longs make up ~36% of the total HF US long portfolio, putting long concentration in the 88th %-tile vs. the last 1Y."
Jan 16 5 tweets 1 min read
"Recently, senior executives at Salesforce have admitted, both internally and publicly, that they massively overestimated AI’s capabilities. They have found that AI simply can’t cope with the complex nature of customer service and totally fails at nuanced issues, escalations, and long-tail customer problems. They even say that it has caused a marked decline in service quality and far more complaints.

But the problems go far deeper than that.

Both employees and executives have said that the company is wasting countless resources on firefighting to
Jul 1, 2025 7 tweets 2 min read
$TTAM Thesis Summary

+7th largest cement company in the US (5% share)
+61% FL by revenue
+31% mkt share in FL, 30% in VA, 30% in NC, 24% NY
+150 mile profitable shipping radius for cement, ~$0.30/ton/mile by truck, ~$0.06/ton/mile by rail
90% is moved by truck in the US $TTAM owns a vertically integrated logistics network with rail terminals

US consumes ~104M tons/yr of cement, ~25M is imported

Cement volumes have a 75% r^2 with TOTAL construction spending, resi most important, housing starts still well below normal