NEW: >2 weeks since Biden’s pledge to exert new pressure on Israel to get aid to Palestinians, 5 top relief orgs tell me progress is minimal—while analysts worry Bibi’s approach to Iran is making it more likely Biden will OK a devastating Rafah operation. huffpost.com/entry/joe-bide… -Netanyahu may have bought “wiggle room” for Rafah @MonicaLMarks notes
-Resurgent Iran hawkishness is already making it harder to push DC decision-makers to seek international law compliance & greater aid access from Israel, per humanitarian org source
-Key steps Isr could take..

SCOOP: US Ambassador to Israel Lew on Tuesday privately endorsed Israel's claims it's abiding by US law in using American weapons + sending aid to Gaza—alarming US officials who say that's untrue + setting up the Biden admin for a bigger fight with lawmakers, humanitarian groups. This is per 2 US officials who saw a cable Lew sent to the State Dept today.

Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant last week signed a letter the Biden admin drafted outlining Israeli assurances.

But the Lew step provides a key stamp of approval as the admin seeks to continue..

A striking element of this week's Dearborn meeting: the way Biden foreign policy officials are still trying to play by DC rules focused on niceties rather than action. It reflects either a deliberate choice or unwillingness to acknowledge the real pain...
nytimes.com/2024/02/09/us/… ...of their Gaza policy. These are people who used to mollifying critics by managing their access: if they feel heard, maybe it'll all settle down + don't they want to be invited to the next exclusive meeting? If so, better not record or leak!

But Gaza's pain + outrage over it..

On the Biden memo/Van Hollen move 🧵

Yes, a notable response to pressure on US Gaza policy. But key to remember:
1) This helps Biden/Dems avoid a Senate debate + going on the record via vote on aid to Israel
2) Like the settler EO, this creates obligations/powers―nothing binding So much of this is already enshrined in US policy (no war crimes, no blocking humanitarian aid, etc) but it's not applied because of what current & former US officials describe as a deep-rooted resistance to accountability for Israel, particularly in the Biden admin post-Oct. 7.

I've now heard from 2 State Dept officials about a Blinken town hall on Wednesday.

He took 1 Q on Gaza.

The official said their team gets daily pleas from Gazans the US has worked with, describing danger, exposure to disease, lack of water + food, trauma. "I implore you..." 🧵 ...what can we do more to negotiate the end to this conflict, save innocent Palestinians?"

The Q highlighted a chilling irony, one official noted: the US is helping bomb, starve & siege thousands of people it's previously invested $ + time into supporting for stability's sake.

A month ago, State Dept said "several hundred" US citizens remain trapped in Gaza.

A month later, a spox tells me today they don't have an updated estimate to provide.

The govt is *legally mandated* to help Americans abroad.

Hundreds of Americans are trapped + thousands are.. ...living with the knowledge their loved ones are in a active war-zone where famine's spreading & there's no clarity about the only functioning exit point.

This deepens the sense Biden sees these folks as second-class citizens + bolsters voters' rage.
huffpost.com/entry/american…

NEW: A US official working on Middle East policy tells me the Biden administration has a plan in place to respond to today's ICJ ruling.

The U.S. expected this order, the official says. Deeply cynical plan in place: It'll say these steps are what the U.S. was already pushing for It's widely acknowledged current US involvement presented as encouraging Israeli restraint are having little effect.

Isr attacking southern Gaza as it did the north.

+ 3 top former US officials recently told me attempts to boost aid are largely moot: huffpost.com/entry/gaza-hos…

At 7am EST tomorrow, the International Court of Justice will deliver an initial "order" in South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza.

Huge moment for Israel, Palestine, the US & more.

Here's my read based on interviews I've done so far & materials I've reviewed... Widespread expectation the court *will* approve at least some of the measures SA is seeking. Chances it'll heed Isr call for a dismissal of the case are "slim" per @AhmedAbofoul.

The mere act of acknowledging there is a basis to suspect genocide would be a big step for the Court

20 hours after my deadline—now my story has been read by >150k people—WH has sent comment. Spox Adrienne Watson: "This story is not true. Quotes attributed to US officials are made up."

Watson played no role in my interviews.

My quotes are real. Biden team again echoing Trump.

https://twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1745951279933780200

I sent the WH detailed questions + criticisms based on very reliable sources; I also extended my deadline at their request. They chose not to engage yesterday & have now decided they have to.

They can't actually dispute the story on its merits so they're resorting to lies.

EXCLU: Biden aide Brett McGurk's 90-day plan for Gaza focuses on a Saudi-Israel deal, sidelining Palestine & alarming US officials
-McGurk envisions a "Jerusalem-Jeddah Pact" & a "victory tour"
-Blinken raised one aspect to top Palestinians & was rebuffed
huffpost.com/entry/biden-sa… -McGurk's proposal is top secret document, per a US official. It ties $ for Gaza to Palestinian acceptance of a Saudi-Isr bargain
-One official said the approach "misses the point" & risks instability for years to come. Another linked its "delusionally optimistic" tack to Yemen:

NEW: The Biden administration has told leaders in Congress there will be US-UK airstrikes in Yemen tonight, per a US official. The official tells me the attacks on Yemen "will not solve the problem" and the approach "doesn't add up to a cohesive strategy."

NEWS: Biden has instructed the US mission to the UN to VETO a Security Council resolution on Gaza tomorrow, per a diplomat.

This comes after 2 delays in the vote & concessions on res language to win US support as well as an in-person attempt to win over Biden by the US amb to UN This will be the second US veto over Gaza this month. The res it kills focuses on humanitarian aid & pausing fighting; it’s not a ceasefire call.

Nothing’s done til it’s done but this is the assessment of a trusted source rn. Noon vote.

Background here: huffpost.com/entry/united-n…

NEW: Fresh Blinken message to all State Dept staff

—“no reoccupation of Gaza…no reduction in the territory”
—acknowledges deep internal tensions, “we’re listening: what you're sharing is informing our policy & our messages.”
—moving towards two states can’t wait til post-war He highlights Israel’s pauses + corridors to the south & calls images from Gaza “wrenching.”

But no detail here on what more he’s doing to shield civilians (his stated goal) or to plan for Gaza’s future, just a vague reference to “a sustained mechanism” for reconstruction.

NEWS: State Dept officials say Biden's Gaza policy is sidelining expertise

-task force on atrocities first met 2 weeks into war
-new State efforts exclude human rights + humanitarian offices, are "myopic"
-senior leaders don't know if even they are heard
huffpost.com/entry/state-de… More:
-2 dissent cables have been submitted and several more are in the works
-an aid official described "a very clear change of center of gravity" compared to other crises
-State officials say outreach efforts are "hollow" signs indications the widespread alarm affects policy

EXCLU: Biden yesterday questioned the death toll from Palestinians.

I reviewed ~20 State Dept cables that cited the Gaza Health Ministry to report casualties & rarely included caveats. In one instance that did, the report said the toll was likely higher.
huffpost.com/entry/joe-bide… Just added in the comment a State Department spokesperson has sent me for this story. It begins: "No one is questioning the scope of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or the significant number of civilian lives that have been lost."

EXCLU: State Dept officials are preparing a dissent cable over Biden's Israel-Palestine policy

"A mutiny [is] brewing within State at all levels,” one official said, as staff describe anger, depression, tears in meetings + rumors more colleagues will quit
huffpost.com/entry/state-de… The cable would represent a formal assessment that the US must change its Gaza approach to shield its national security interests. How harsh it is & how many sign will help determine its impact.

State Dept staff even at high levels feel Blinken is not hearing them right now.

NEW: The State Dept lost talent & wrecked lives as it promised & failed to represent the US. Through the first major interview with Biden's pick to fix the problem & 20 testimonials, I dug into whether it can finally end abuse, discrimination and impunity:
huffpost.com/entry/state-de… Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley says "apples choosing apples" is why top jobs still go to white men at shocking rates. Of the 26 high-level foreign service promotions 2016-2020, 23 went to white people & 17 to men. 86% of the highest-ranking of the foreign+civil servants are white.

Leading HuffPost one year & one week after Khashoggi's killing: my story on the #SaudiSeven, powerful men who helped Saudi Arabia stay influential in the global community instead of being shunned for the brutal murder of a citizen who sought refuge abroad

huffpost.com/entry/saudi-se… We know Trump covered for Saudi & said it didn't matter even if, as the CIA & UN believe, the country's crown prince knew of and was implicated in the assassination.

We've paid less attention to the many other useful friends doing damage control for the kingdom. Let's meet a few

Hours ago, a Saudi-UAE airstrike killed at least 29 children in Yemen. Their campaign gets refueling from American planes & streams of US intelligence to help it pick targets--ostensibly to avoid calamities like this. But don't hold your breath for the US to take responsibility. The line the government is giving reporters (like "I don't know if we'll ever know" about US role to @AlexWardVox) is consistent with what it's said under Obama, who first authorized US assistance for the Saudis & UAE in Yemen, and its increasing obfuscation under Trump.

What makes moments like this hard isn't the reminder that the most powerful man in the world *hates* people who look like you, who have names like you. That's something you learn--painfully--once & then just start to live with for the sake of your sanity. It's the way his hate works. How lazy it is, how dependent on the most base of stereotypes (bearded dude!! pushing people off roofs!!). How do you even start to refute that & the legitimacy it grants to simple straightforward bigotry?