NEW—"A lot of children have passed the point of no return...The gut lining has started to auto-digest & will no longer [absorb] water or nutrition. Death is imminent for 1000s"
An American doctor just back from Gaza on where US-Israeli policy is taking us:
huffpost.com/entry/gaza-sta… Addressing the crisis is not just about shipping in more feed: Palestinians' bodies have changed under nearly 2 years of unbelievable stress
Deaths in Aug + Sept will be "significantly higher," Mark Brauner told me; a surge in aid could only start changing the trend by late Sept

Remarkable that CNN is repeatedly promoting Israel-Iran analysis from its paid contributor Brett McGurk, the former Biden Middle East advisor.

McGurk shaped policy in the region under 4 presidents–a period of near-constant crisis + US mistakes. He was..

huffpost.com/entry/mcgurk-b… ..one former colleague told me, “the most talented bureaucrat they’ve ever seen, with the worst foreign policy judgment they’ve ever seen.”

Consistently promoted as the Middle East got more dangerous, it seemed McGurk torched the fucking house & then showed up with a firehose.”

NEW: I got the White House's private talking points to Congress on today's vote over weapons for Israel―a document that accuses Democrats of aiding Hamas if they vote against the Biden admin's arms deals.
Schumer is privately pressuring senators too.
More:
huffpost.com/entry/biden-we… Sent to Senate offices yesterday, the doc claims: "Disapproving arms purchases for Israel at this moment would..put wind in the sails of Iran, Hezbollah + Hamas"

It advocates military pressure on Hezb+Hamas as the admin is publicly saying they want to end theGaza/Lebanon wars.

NEW: The Uncommitted movement says Trump will "accelerate the killing" in Gaza & third parties risk helping him win – but Harris hasn't won the endorsement of anti-war voters.

Details on their careful new statement, leaving room for Dems + blasting AIPAC:
huffpost.com/entry/gaza-war… "Uncommitted" leaders are now hosting a Zoom presser. @AZAlawieh says they've been receiving "canned" responses from the Harris campaign to a request for a meeting by 9/15 with Palestinian Americans + a conversation about a policy shift on US weapons for Israel.

“We’re Democrats… it’s President Biden + Vice President Kamala Harris who have not yet updated the policy to be where we are,” Uncommitted’s Abbas Alawieh says, noting polls showing Dems disapprove of Israel’s campaign in Gaza.

No DNC Palestinian American speaker confirmed yet. “I don’t know what the issue on the inside, what’s holding this up… if the issue is that there isn’t room for Palestinian Americans in the Democratic Party, then we’ve got a problem.”

Note that Uncommitted has already made a concession, now seeking 1 speaker, not 2.

Just wrapped 2 days of reporting in Berlin, with a particular focus on how officials & others close to policy are handling the Gaza war.

More to come soon but for now: similar to the situation in DC, there’s a deep sense expertise is being sidelined—enabling violence & hurting.. ..Germany’s ability to bolster future stability, in Israel-Palestine or in other global contexts where it seeks to wield soft power.

“Untenable” is a word that came up repeatedly, referring to German backing for Israel’s conduct, the silencing of dissenting views on the policy..

NEW: A "stunning" letter from Israel's ambassador is rankling Democrats in Congress, "verging on offensive" & raising questions about who's "the superpower."
It's a sign of how high tensions are: "Never before" has Isr sent "such a harsh letter," aide says
huffpost.com/entry/israeli-… First obtained by the inimitable @alexbward the letter implied Dems are boosting Hamas & have forgotten Oct 7—claims another aide described as especially jarring.

The situation reflects how the breadth of opposition to the Gaza war is creating a new dynamic: Isr now targeting...

BREAK: I have obtained Biden's NSM-20 report to Congress; reading now. "The conflict has displaced the vast majority of Palestinians in Gaza and
resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis. Israel has had to confront an extraordinary military challenge"

NEW: >2 weeks since Biden’s pledge to exert new pressure on Israel to get aid to Palestinians, 5 top relief orgs tell me progress is minimal—while analysts worry Bibi’s approach to Iran is making it more likely Biden will OK a devastating Rafah operation. huffpost.com/entry/joe-bide… -Netanyahu may have bought “wiggle room” for Rafah @MonicaLMarks notes
-Resurgent Iran hawkishness is already making it harder to push DC decision-makers to seek international law compliance & greater aid access from Israel, per humanitarian org source
-Key steps Isr could take..

SCOOP: US Ambassador to Israel Lew on Tuesday privately endorsed Israel's claims it's abiding by US law in using American weapons + sending aid to Gaza—alarming US officials who say that's untrue + setting up the Biden admin for a bigger fight with lawmakers, humanitarian groups. This is per 2 US officials who saw a cable Lew sent to the State Dept today.

Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant last week signed a letter the Biden admin drafted outlining Israeli assurances.

But the Lew step provides a key stamp of approval as the admin seeks to continue..

A striking element of this week's Dearborn meeting: the way Biden foreign policy officials are still trying to play by DC rules focused on niceties rather than action. It reflects either a deliberate choice or unwillingness to acknowledge the real pain...
nytimes.com/2024/02/09/us/… ...of their Gaza policy. These are people who used to mollifying critics by managing their access: if they feel heard, maybe it'll all settle down + don't they want to be invited to the next exclusive meeting? If so, better not record or leak!

But Gaza's pain + outrage over it..

On the Biden memo/Van Hollen move 🧵

Yes, a notable response to pressure on US Gaza policy. But key to remember:
1) This helps Biden/Dems avoid a Senate debate + going on the record via vote on aid to Israel
2) Like the settler EO, this creates obligations/powers―nothing binding So much of this is already enshrined in US policy (no war crimes, no blocking humanitarian aid, etc) but it's not applied because of what current & former US officials describe as a deep-rooted resistance to accountability for Israel, particularly in the Biden admin post-Oct. 7.

I've now heard from 2 State Dept officials about a Blinken town hall on Wednesday.

He took 1 Q on Gaza.

The official said their team gets daily pleas from Gazans the US has worked with, describing danger, exposure to disease, lack of water + food, trauma. "I implore you..." 🧵 ...what can we do more to negotiate the end to this conflict, save innocent Palestinians?"

The Q highlighted a chilling irony, one official noted: the US is helping bomb, starve & siege thousands of people it's previously invested $ + time into supporting for stability's sake.

A month ago, State Dept said "several hundred" US citizens remain trapped in Gaza.

A month later, a spox tells me today they don't have an updated estimate to provide.

The govt is *legally mandated* to help Americans abroad.

Hundreds of Americans are trapped + thousands are.. ...living with the knowledge their loved ones are in a active war-zone where famine's spreading & there's no clarity about the only functioning exit point.

This deepens the sense Biden sees these folks as second-class citizens + bolsters voters' rage.
huffpost.com/entry/american…

NEW: A US official working on Middle East policy tells me the Biden administration has a plan in place to respond to today's ICJ ruling.

The U.S. expected this order, the official says. Deeply cynical plan in place: It'll say these steps are what the U.S. was already pushing for It's widely acknowledged current US involvement presented as encouraging Israeli restraint are having little effect.

Isr attacking southern Gaza as it did the north.

+ 3 top former US officials recently told me attempts to boost aid are largely moot: huffpost.com/entry/gaza-hos…

At 7am EST tomorrow, the International Court of Justice will deliver an initial "order" in South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza.

Huge moment for Israel, Palestine, the US & more.

Here's my read based on interviews I've done so far & materials I've reviewed... Widespread expectation the court *will* approve at least some of the measures SA is seeking. Chances it'll heed Isr call for a dismissal of the case are "slim" per @AhmedAbofoul.

The mere act of acknowledging there is a basis to suspect genocide would be a big step for the Court

20 hours after my deadline—now my story has been read by >150k people—WH has sent comment. Spox Adrienne Watson: "This story is not true. Quotes attributed to US officials are made up."

Watson played no role in my interviews.

My quotes are real. Biden team again echoing Trump.

https://twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1745951279933780200

I sent the WH detailed questions + criticisms based on very reliable sources; I also extended my deadline at their request. They chose not to engage yesterday & have now decided they have to.

They can't actually dispute the story on its merits so they're resorting to lies.

EXCLU: Biden aide Brett McGurk's 90-day plan for Gaza focuses on a Saudi-Israel deal, sidelining Palestine & alarming US officials
-McGurk envisions a "Jerusalem-Jeddah Pact" & a "victory tour"
-Blinken raised one aspect to top Palestinians & was rebuffed
huffpost.com/entry/biden-sa… -McGurk's proposal is top secret document, per a US official. It ties $ for Gaza to Palestinian acceptance of a Saudi-Isr bargain
-One official said the approach "misses the point" & risks instability for years to come. Another linked its "delusionally optimistic" tack to Yemen:

NEW: The Biden administration has told leaders in Congress there will be US-UK airstrikes in Yemen tonight, per a US official. The official tells me the attacks on Yemen "will not solve the problem" and the approach "doesn't add up to a cohesive strategy."

NEWS: Biden has instructed the US mission to the UN to VETO a Security Council resolution on Gaza tomorrow, per a diplomat.

This comes after 2 delays in the vote & concessions on res language to win US support as well as an in-person attempt to win over Biden by the US amb to UN This will be the second US veto over Gaza this month. The res it kills focuses on humanitarian aid & pausing fighting; it’s not a ceasefire call.

Nothing’s done til it’s done but this is the assessment of a trusted source rn. Noon vote.

Background here: huffpost.com/entry/united-n…

NEW: Fresh Blinken message to all State Dept staff

—“no reoccupation of Gaza…no reduction in the territory”
—acknowledges deep internal tensions, “we’re listening: what you're sharing is informing our policy & our messages.”
—moving towards two states can’t wait til post-war He highlights Israel’s pauses + corridors to the south & calls images from Gaza “wrenching.”

But no detail here on what more he’s doing to shield civilians (his stated goal) or to plan for Gaza’s future, just a vague reference to “a sustained mechanism” for reconstruction.