Around the 1960s, India and China were similar-sized economies.

This was the case till the 1990s.

Fast forward 60 years,
China currently stands at around $19 TRILLION in GDP as compared to India’s $3.5 TRILLION. What happened?

- Why India’s GDP growth lags behind?
- What did China do that propelled them forward?
- How does this all impact us?

On one hand, India is set to be a $5 trillion economy in the next 3 years.
(3rd largest in the world).

On the other,
People are concerned about the Debt levels in India -
and how it can affect the future.

What is the real story?

[1/n] [1] What is the meaning of Debt?

In the same way, we take Personal Debt to finance our needs (House, Education, Car, etc.).

A country also takes debt to finance its expenses.

Almost all countries globally are running on high levels of debt.

A firm in India donated Rs. 1,368 CRORES for political funding via Electoral Bonds. But made JUST Rs. 215 crores (in total) in the 4 years as profits.

Interestingly, this is NOT the only firm: here is a partial list:- In this thread, let's understand

- What are Electoral Bonds? Why were these introduced?
- Do Electoral Bonds help?
- End-to-End System of Electoral Bonds
- Is there a Quid-Pro-Quo System at play?
- Could we design a better System?

The world of investing will look very different 10 years from now.

People who are euphoric about stock markets NOW, and, think that the game is going to continue forever - are in for a rude shock.

Here is the macro analysis you need to know:- [1] One of the best phases of investing was 2008-2020.

The markets went from roughly 2500 to 12500.

The world was trading with each other more during this phase.

And, one could argue this was the pinnacle of globalization.

Due to India's increasing debt, you will pay higher taxes.

2014: 54 lakh crore
2023: 205 lakh crore

People are doing politics around this data.
But, here are critical facts you should know:- [1] A good debt is: when you borrow to build productive assets.

Very similar to if you borrow to buy an iPhone, not a very smart move.

But, if you are borrowing to buy a good real estate, it might be a productive use.

How To Invest Your Salary: Build a BIG PORTFOLIO Even With a Low Salary

[1/n]

Ronal Read was a Janitor in the US, who saved & invested his salary every month.

He kept doing that consistently every month on a minimum salary. At the time of his death, he was worth 8Mn$.

Most people struggle to invest their salary, this THREAD is a step-by-step guide. 👇

RBI target inflation is 4% (upto 6%). Ever wondered why this 4 to 6%?

Why not 0%?

In a world of 0% inflation:

You could earn money, keep it peacefully, go to sleep. And, not run to invest and take risk with it.

Do we really NEED INFLATION to begin with?

[A thread...] Wish people knew this about politics and economics.

[1] Economies grow because our wants > resources. Therefore, companies try to produce things efficiently. And, we consume them because we derive benefits.

I live in a rented house-- but own multiple properties.

People debate excessively on: buy vs rent decision, without understanding the complete basics of Real Estate investing.

Watch these 5 videos. And, get ahead of 99% people in Real Estate investing.

[A thread...] [1] Is Stock Investing better than Real Estate investing?

- Depends on what stage of investing are you in your life.
- Do you need cash flows or growth?
- Do you need to be diversified?

Video: lnkd.in/diJm3rzv

In some states Tomato is now being sold at 200Rs/KG.

This is not just a temporary spike.

As per the data by Indian Agricultural Marketing Intelligence, Tomato prices have gone up by 10.5% average every year between 2004-2017.

Tomato-economics explained

[A thread...] [1] Tomato price is growing at a faster rate than most people's salaries.

Here is the the data from Indian Agricultural Marketing Intelligence

So what is leading to price rise?

Is money real or fake?

If you don't have 10 hours to study the history of money and get to the answer. This post will help.

The world in 2023 operates on DEBT, not REAL MONEY.

Money became fake a long time ago.

But how did we get here? [1] For centuries, people used the Barter System.

Which simply meant that give me your Rice, and take my Mangoes.

Ever since I was 21, I have had 2 jobs.

There were periods in my life, where I worked 16 hours/day.

Would I chose such a life now? absolutely not.

I'm 35 now: I work 4 hours a day.

While, I can proudly say that I have escaped the 'rat race', I would also like to tell you... ... that is extremely tough to do that.

Here are some practical non-BS points you need to know:

The world has 300 Tr$ of debt.
US has roughly 10% of it (almost 31Tr$)

If the US defaults on its debt, it would be catastrophic for the entire world.

Here are 5 things that will happen

[A thread...] Some quick history first:

US had actually defaulted on its debt back in 1840.

Back then, it was a much smaller economy.

Now, 60% of the world's forex reserves are in US$.
So it has grown much bigger overtime.

Keeping the politics aside on the 2000Rs note, here are important points you should know as an aware citizen:

[A thread...] [1] After September 2023, the 2000 Rs note will still be a legal tender (but will it?)

The definition of legal tender is: "Legal tender is a form of money that courts of law are required to recognize as satisfactory payment for any monetary debt".

A lot of firms will come after me for writing this post. But, honestly I don't care.

A new REITs is launched in town. And, people are going crazy. I have spoken against REITs investing, so putting our 1 more post, to explain you the basics.

[A thread..] [1] What exactly is REITs?

A REITs firm would buy Real Estate, rent it out. And, pay 90% of the rent generated as dividends (usually).

You do fractional investing with 500, 1000, 2000Rs and assume you are investing in Real Estate)

US is running out of money.

And, it might default on its debt.

How exactly can this happen. And, what impact would it have on the world?

[A thread..] [1] The US has a lot of debt.

Most of this debt has been taken in the last few decades.

It now has close to 31.4Tr$ of debt.

Almost 60% of the world's forex reserve is in USD. So this is not just a US's problem, this is a world's problem.

Key milestones by age:-

[1] 20s (priorities)

- Health.
- Skills.
- Invest to develop a habit.

Obligations are less: if you develop good habits and avoid bad ones, you are planting the right seeds.

Investing skills > Traditional investing helps you make more money. [2] 30s (priorities):

- Emergency fund.
- Parent's finance needs to be sorted.
- Start saving for kids (if you have/are going to have).

Google, Microsoft and Amazon laid off more than 70,000 employees last year.

More layoffs are underway.

Their profits in last quarter (not year, one quarter!) 2022:

- Google: 40Bn$
- Microsoft: 35Bn$
- Amazon: 19.65Bn$

Important lessons if you are aiming for tier-1 jobs: [1] You are either a cost centre or profit centre to your firm. If you bring in 10L a year and get a salary of 8L, you will survive (if you are lucky), else you will not.

First we pay 28% tax on a car (non-luxury, small).
Then we pay 70% fuel tax to drive that car.
Then we pay road tax to build roads.
Then we pay toll tax to use highways.

Welcome to the world of high taxes.

[A thread...] [1] Why our taxes will continue to go up?

Very simple: Governments have taken a ton of debt.

When you take debt, you have to repay interest on debt.

Very similar to how we pay interest on home loans.

This 150 year old prediction has predicted almost all major crisis since mid 1920s.

It predicts that the stock market is bottoming out in 2023.

And, would continue to be in a bull run till 2035.

Should you believe this prediction?

An economic analysis

[A thread...] [1] Let's understand the prediction first:

This prediction is called Benner Cycle.

It was given by an American farmer called Samuel Benner.

Point A indicates the crisis years (the market falls after this)

Point C indicates bottoming out years (markets rises post this)

Most of us will fail in the stock markets and other forms of investing.

Here is why?

[A thread...] [1] If you Grandfather ever invested in stocks, they would have seen reasonable success.

Compared to the chances that you and I have now.

If you had 86 Lakhs as loans. And, your total assets were 76 Lakhs, would you get worried?

On top of this: let's say that you had just suffered a massive loss on your investment portfolio. Would you get worried NOW?

I'm sure you would....

[A thread..] ...because you'd have lenders on your back. And, there is no way you would be able to pay them.

Something similar is happening with the US Economy:-

Total liabilities of US Fed= 8.6Tr$
Total Assets of US Fed=7.4Tr$