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Alan Stacey Profile picture
Alan Stacey
@AlanVRK
Mathematician. Formerly Cambridge & UCLA faculty - specialized in the then-obscure subject of epidemic models. More recently financial stuff. Risk.
Aug 24 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
When international mail services to the US resume,
they're gonna be more like those to Brazil.

I have a lot of experience of sending small gifts to Brazil, so lemme explain how bad that gets.
(1/4)
apnews.com/article/us-tar… Trump has replaced the $800 "de minimis" exception which allows small gifts to travel painlessly with a $100 limit and a whole host of new rules.

Here's the current UK mail @RoyalMail state of play.
Brazil is similar (except $50 not $100), but even that ain't easy.
(2/4) Image
Aug 10 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Ahem @nytimes.

You published this yesterday.
Let me give you two hints before I reveal the answer - one your rival found months ago.

Do you really think the governor of the PMA doesn't know? (Hint: no)

Do you think he'd tell you if Israel did it? (Hint: yes)
@HonestReporting Image On April 16, @WSJ published this.

Questions?

@MaxNordau @spacelaserbonds Image
Jul 24 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Greetings and Salutations, @BBCWorld .
You have, once again, been bamboozled.

This⤵️ is part of the current leading item on your home page.

Dr Al-Deeb is an interesting guy.
(1/5)
@imshin @EFischberger @MarkZlochin @SchoolBondOtter @CAMERAorgUK
bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0k7…Image He has a tumblr account - where he posted last year that he had lost his job at Al-Shifa, but that you could help by providing funds for him to study abroad.

It also posted a lot of propaganda straight out of the Hamas PR office. And it's clearly the same guy.
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Jul 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
@EylonALevy @JMPSimor Because there was an explicit partition plan to the contrary which is explicitly cited (twice, moreover) in the text of the Israeli Declaration of Independence.

avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/i… @EylonALevy @JMPSimor For the hard of understanding, of which there seem to be many, this doesn't answer the question of what the borders should be now.

It simply explains why the principle Mr Levy cited doesn't work. It's a status quo principle. You can't apply it decades later.
Aug 3, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Rumble is in the news again because of JD Vance's stake in it. Time for a quick recap on how that stake is doing.

This is just terrible. They're not growing and they're losing a ton of money, entirely financed by a shrinking cash pile from investors.
Image
Image Data is directly from their SEC filings. They had their IPO in 2022 and ought to be profitable (or clearly on the cusp of profitability) at this point.

Here's my take on the two biggest factors driving those numbers other than sheer incompetence and a terrible business model. Image
Apr 21, 2024 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
In a shocking turn of events in which
an always-right person* turns out to be right
(sorry @AuhsdBond, me on this occasion)
a longer video clip shows Gideon "Victim" Falter
is not a victim of the police, but an aggressive asshole.

news.sky.com/story/sky-news… This guy isn't just some random passer-by. He's virtually made a career out of being confrontational.

If you do that, then sooner or later someone under a lot of stress is going to say something unfortunate, and he got the "I'm a victim"video clip he wanted.

But this is crazy.
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Oct 24, 2023 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
An important thread about the Ghassan Abu Sitta,
a doctor in Gaza
whom Western media are always quoting.

First question.
Where was this press conference given?⤵️
"In the rubble of Al-Ahli Hospital" was widely reported.

The screenshots are a hint.

(1/4)
@wokbonds

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Image Until a rocket hit the hospital car park in the evening of October 17, he consistently claimed to be working at Al Shifa , the largest hospital in Gaza,
not the smaller hospital that was hit
which is two miles away.

(2/4)


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Sep 16, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
For the benefit of Russell Brand fans just emerging from the cave they've been hiding in for the past 20 years..

This was published in 2015.
(1/3)
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3… This was published in 2020.

telegraph.co.uk/music/artists/…
Nov 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 12 min read
@LeagueTruth @wokbonds @CGasparino @NotJoshSelig @Stevewa99908610 @LeagueTruth @wokbonds @CGasparino @NotJoshSelig @Stevewa99908610 Checking the accuracy of my advice,
the ambitious fuel mixicologist ⬆️
will want freebase and not crack.

This from "Cocaine Insights", a handy 52-page guide paid for by your international tax dollars
and published by the United Nations.

Never complain the UN don't do anything.
Nov 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
You're asking the clocks to lie about what hour of the day it is. That's so backwards, it's painful.

If you want to move the working day an hour earlier,
then do it. It's not the clocks which dictate when you leave the office. It's you. This nonsense
- which literally people have been saying for at least forty years -
is asking the clocks to fool us into doing stuff earlier.

It doesn't work. People slip back eventually. Spain is a whole hour ahead of natural time. Result is everyone has dinner at 10pm.
Nov 4, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
I haven't the faintest idea what this is even trying to say.

The biggest reasons it "ran out of men to infect" is that over 600.000 became immune through vaccines supplied by the federal government, which should have been focused on that core group.
@wokbonds @LizHighleyman If anything, the evidence from Europe shows the opposite.
Of the countries most severely impacted, only Spain was *very* short of vaccines, and the result was twice as many cases (per capita) as anywhere else.

Oct 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
When Igor Danchenko was indicted last November, we were treated to an immediate 12-tweet celebration by Glenn, containing numbered points which had numbered subpoints.

And this was just the start.
(1/n) The next day we had, inter alia, a 17-tweet rant on that subject, announcing that it proved he and Matt Taibbi were right, everyone else was wrong, and how shockingly they refused to report on their wrongness.
Oct 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Glenn Greenwald's legal career crashed and burned
defending people who had inspired a killing spreed
(thread ⤵️).

This kind of language he used today of @oneunderscore__ and @TaylorLorenz
is gonna put him in the same position as his old clients
sooner or later. Image Both @oneunderscore__ and @TaylorLorenz should report his tweet for encouraging harassment or threatening violence, because the language Glenn used is going to provoke that. And Twitter won't do anything unless they complain themselves.
Oct 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
A member, huh? 🤨
How many "members" do you have? Two? Three?

Here's that member hanging out with a Proud Boy leader
who prosecutors don't even think should be out on bail
pending yet another felony assault case.

Perfectly normal stuff.

@mike10010100 @MichaelEHayden @wokbonds It turns out Mr Mario Presents is one of the most frequently featured "members" of this hate organization of supposed LBG people.

And this is some more about the guy carrying him in the pic.

This is a Proud Boys op.
rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
Sep 22, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Hey, @wokbonds @GladzMa
What's going on here? Has Glenn moved?

conjur.com.br/dl/moro-decisa… And while I am here, @lemming_last , we have ourselves a medical report.
Sep 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
For anyone who hasn't read it yet,
this is the finest in legal entertainment.

"We stress the limited nature of our review" they write,
before spending 29 pages pouring withering scorn and disbelief over Trump's non-arguments and Cannon's decisions. There's an awful lot of thinly-veiled incredulity in there.

@LeagueTruth
Jan 24, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
@xeni @AuhsdBond @nytimes @Wolfe321 The Wayback Machine preserved the page where they
describe what most people would call a brothel;
run by "sex tourists"👇
complete with phone numbers (not shown) &
the (former) email address of David Miranda,
Glenn's husband, now a Brazilian congressman.
web.archive.org/web/2005110404…Image
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Image @xeni @AuhsdBond @nytimes @Wolfe321 Should you wonder if it's the same DavidM,
his photo literally appears front and center (and elsewhere)
on their (cross-linked) site, RioGayGuides.

The same content appeared months earlier on hairystudsvideo dot com,
a company and address owned by Glenn.

Oct 13, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
@AuhsdBond @ggreenwald @wokyleeks @xeni Yes, Glenn.

It's so easy to take things out of context, isn't it?

Here's

"never represented a single Wall Street bank" &
"representing investment bankers and Goldman Sachs"

plus some context from Edward Snowden I randomly through in. So unfair.

Lucky you deleted it. Image
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Image @AuhsdBond @ggreenwald @wokyleeks @xeni If you can't even get one of the six versions of the myth remotely plausible, you're just making this too easy.

Anyone familiar with this beach 👇
especially Brazilians,
can't finish the story in any variant,
because they're laughing so hard.

(Oi, @Google. Awful translation.) Image
Image
Aug 30, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
@wokyleeks I'm fairly sure if I can apply myself
I can track down someone in one of his movies.

The later ones 2008-11. @wokyleeks Difficult to do in a Covid-safe way.

Otherwise you just have a couple of Brazilian "friends" in the room and wait for the "oh, I know that guy" moment.