Excited to publish my Crypto Trends Report for 2025!

It frames crypto’s growth as a story of 3 compounding s-curves: asset creation, asset accumulation, and asset utilization

The report applies this lens across five key thematic areas – macro, stablecoins, centralized exchanges, onchain activity, and frontier markets – to predict where the industry may be headed Where we are on each curve helps identify where there’s still significant startup opportunity and what tailwinds we can expect

Keep reading for key highlights, or skip to the full report here: docsend.com/v/sfvqr/crypto…

1/ We’re in the app phase of the app-infra cycle 2/ Each portion of the app-infra cycle has lasted 1-1.5 years

H2 2022-2023: base level infra improvements (L2s maturing, Solana stability)

2023-2024: mid-level infra implementations (embedded wallets, better security, faster bridges)

H2 2024-now: app emergence

1/ Distribution is all that matters

These are my favorite examples of how founders got their products into the hands of users 2/ Twitter and SXSW

By 2007, Twitter had started to pick up early momentum in the Bay Area. But it really hit its stride during SXSW

The team put a flatscreen in the main conference hallway where folks congregated between talks. It had a live Twitter feed, driving tons of sign ups and generating buzz both at the conference + beyond

1/ On DeFi superapps and their bottlenecks

tldr: it’s not just UI 2/ DeFi superapps enable users to easily trade & earn using onchain protocols

We’ve seen a bunch of these projects over the past few months

It seems like low-hanging fruit. The infra is better than it's ever been. Embedded wallets make self-custody easy. Tx fees are cheap. Etc etc

But I’m not sure any of those were really the bottlenecks

Over the past several months, Variant has purchased a number of Nouns. We're excited to be new community members -- here's why:

https://twitter.com/jessewldn/status/1600252527647170560

Nouns is a powerful experiment in bootstrapping identity, community, governance, & accessible capital formation on the internet

It’s a self-propagating meme machine, operated by a community that values public goods funding as a means to further propagating that meme & community

On-chain identity primitives are going to be the foundation of web3 social, lending, and more

But today, it's still early. As they continue to develop, I think two categories will form the foundation of this new category:

1. Things you've done
2. Things you own

(thread) Primitive #1 - Things you’ve done (and w/ whom you’ve done them with)

This is a form of *earned* reputation. Build an identity around contributions + collaborators, all tracked through code and commits.

Key use cases include: hiring, promotions, governing influence, etc

One of the big questions facing teams building zk infra is which to decentralize first: the prover or the sequencer?

There are a number of good arguments for both sides; I’ll do my best to lay out some of the trade-offs below 👇 #1: Why decentralize the prover?

Primarily, it improves liveness. The more provers, the less one prover going down affects the performance of the network

AFAIK decentralizing the prover is a priority for many teams building zkEVMs (eg @Scroll_ZKP @zksync @0xPolygonHermez, etc)

New essay! Designing Governance Tokens

I laid out a 3-step framework for teams to think through their governance token design

At the crux of the design: should governance tokens be bought or earned? Well, it depends...

variant.fund/articles/desig… Question 1: does your project more closely resemble a corporation or a country?

Parameters for deciding:
-Focused vs. pluralistic set of values
-Profit-seeking vs. focus on public goods
-Shareholders vs. stakeholders

The answer impacts whether tokens should be bought vs. earned

What are ways to distribute tokens?

Many options exist, and different mechanisms optimize for different things. A deep dive: 1. Liquid airdrops – grant early users ownership with maximum flexibility (ie can sell if they want)

2. Permissioned airdrops – grant early users ownership with likely expectation they are still active stakeholders (also keeps community small)

Toying with the idea that token incentive programs can create more *sustainable* growth if those tokens have some rights to a share of the revenue (from the project issuing the token)

(short thread) The problem right now is that tokens distributed via incentive programs aren't really sticky - at the momemt*, governance rights seem insufficient to prevent recipients from selling

*if we see a big uptick in significant gov implementations, gov rights may become more valuable

One framework for thinking about token design: how core to the product is it?
(short thread) On one end of the spectrum is "absolutely core": the token is the product, and the project could not function without it. On the other end are "adjacent" tokens: the product could exist absent the token, but having a token is useful for other reasons

A thread on The Graph: data, comparisons, and things I find interesting The Graph is an indexing protocol for blockchains. It acts as an open API that makes it easier for developers to access the data. I’ve heard it likened to a “Google for blockchains” – in web2, Google stores & catalogs data to make it easier for users to find relevant information

A thread on Zcash: data, comparisons, and things I find interesting Zcash is similar to Bitcoin, but with a stronger emphasis on privacy. The monetary base is the same (21M units) and block rewards halve every ~4 years

Zcash blocks are mined every ~75 seconds, and there’s a standard 0.0001 $ZEC fee per transaction

A thread on Helium: data, comparisons, and things I find interesting 🎈 Helium is a decentralized wireless network

Its focus so far has been on creating a more robust infrastructure to support the Internet of Things (IoT) by providing devices with reliable, efficient geolocation data

A thread on Arweave: data, comparisons, and things I find interesting Arweave is a decentralized data storage protocol. Storage is permanent and the protocol employs a “pay-once store forever” model

The ecosystem has been growing massively: from ~35 applications built using Arweave storage in October to ~65 just 3 months later

NFTs may actually make a lot of sense for the restaurant industry

(thread) One emerging use case for NFTs is (an evolution of) ticketing

Buying an NFT can get often the owner backstage access at concerts, an invite to a party, or VIP treatment - all essentially forms of tickets

Does crypto improve distribution for creators?

Maybe, maybe not

(thread) To be clear- I think web3 can be great for creators. It opens up new sources of financing, from NFTs to tokenization

But distribution is a separate question. It might make sense to start by looking at the total size of the pie and what an evenly distributed world would look like

Somewhat contrarian take, but what if all of this competition is good for Clubhouse?

Here's why I think the onslaught of new entrants (from Twitter, FB, Reddit, Slack, LinkedIn, etc) could benefit Clubhouse: /1 1. It expands the overall live audio market. More players means there's a greater chance to discover some exciting untapped area for live audio to really take off

2. It legitimizes live audio as a significant segment of entertainment. This may lead to ad spend in the sector /2

Jeff Bezos just published his final Letter to Shareholders as CEO of Amazon.

The writing, clarity of thought, and focus are incredible.

Here are my 5 favorite parts of the letter: 1. "Imagine we … value only one thing: we save customers time."

In his 1997 Letter to Shareholders, Bezos wrote "our focus has been on offering our customers compelling value." The world has changed significantly since then, but Bezos's vision hasn't.