NEW: Russia failed in a years-long programme to cut its defence industry's reliance on foreign components, according to an internal report bloomberg.com/news/articles/… A 2019-2025 plan that aimed to substitute 177,058 foreign components across hundreds of types of military equipment fell spectacularly short across all metrics.

In 2020, for example, Russia was aiming to develop from scratch 4,148 analogue electronic components: it managed none

The gas/rubles mess is a big test for the credibility of the EU and some member states. A short thread:

First, it's important to note that under existing contracts gas is paid for in euros (or dollars) and a buyer's legal obligation ends with that transfer ie payment is in euros Putin's decree demands that buyers open 2 accounts with Gazprombank -- one in rubles -- and legal obligation is extinguished only after euros transferred into the first account are converted into rubles and Gazprom receives payment in rubles. ie payment is effectively in rubles

Russia violated human rights, international humanitarian law and committed war crimes in Ukraine, OSCE report finds bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Russia’s explanation for its attack on Mariupol’s maternity & children’s hospital was found to be without foundation — and deliberate.

“This attack therefore constitutes a clear violation of international humanitarian law and those responsible for it have committed a war crime.”

NEW on @TheTerminal: Some EU member states want a new strong sanctions package to be implemented as soon as possible in light of reports that Russian troops committed apparent war crimes in Ukraine, including summary executions of unarmed civilians The EU was already set to put forward measures as soon as this week to correct and tighten existing sanctions, as well as further listings of more goods, individuals and entities.

The debate is whether that action is now sufficient.

Reposting this story with @JenniferJJacobs on sanctions package EU and US working on: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Potential measures include:

- sanctioning Russia's biggest banks
- ban on some interbank operations, such as clearing - further restrictions on borrowing and access to markets

- trade restrictions and export controls on key technologies and sensitive industries

- further individual sanctions

- and more: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

NEW: A diplomatic path out of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is increasingly narrow bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Ahead of next week's three tracks of talks with US, NATO and OSCE, there has been little sign of Russia de-escalating, sources say.

Assessment as of end 2021 places 50+ BTGs / more than 100,000 troops in proximity of Ukraine, as well as capability to deploy more units quickly

Kurz-Jansa-Babis doesn't quite have a Van Basten-Gullit-Rijkaard ring to it. After shouting about solidarity from the rooftops, the unhappy trio are still blocking an EU deal to share millions of vaccines with member states hardest hit by Astra delays bloomberg.com/news/articles/… For those not following this story from the beginning the tldr is that Austria’s Kurz pushed for “solidarity” but once he realised he was not entitled to it - and indeed would have to contribute to it - he’s less interested

NEW: EU's updated vaccine export mechanism will no longer exempt EEA/EFTA countries bloomberg.com/news/articles/… The strengthened regulation is part of a drive to inject "reciprocity” and “proportionality" into the tool, as well as the need to counter possible attempts to circumvent the mechanism

NEW: EU draft proposals for a vaccine certificate — “EU covid card/digital green certificate” — could include vaccines from Russia and China that have received emergency authorisation from national governments but not EMA approval bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Under the draft regulation currently in the works, the covid card would comprise three certificates: vaccines, tests and whether someone has recovered from covid.

Certificates would be free, digital and paper-based, and include relevant data and unique identifiers

NEW: Japan has “pushed back strongly” against some of the U.K.'s plans over the role of Australia, India and South Korea at this year's G7, according to a diplomatic note seen by Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/… At a virtual meeting of the G-7 political directors on Jan. 22, the U.K. told the other members that it plans to invite the guests to foreign ministers meeting in May in Wales and to sign an “Open Societies Charter” with them

NEW: EU's top diplomat to push ahead with a trip to Russia despite opposition from at least 5 member states following Navalny's arrest. The trip, which could take place as early as next month, is backed by most other members. Announcement expected soon bloomberg.com/news/articles/… At a meeting of EU diplomats yesterday, ambassadors from at least 8 member states appeared ready to explore further diplomatic measures and sanctions over Navalny's imprisonment. That discussion will now move up the diplomatic chain to foreign ministers

NEW: This is where Brexit talks are at as negotiations enter a possibly decisive 10 days bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Barnier told EU ambassadors this week that the UK’s positions on LPF, fish and governance have shown no sign of evolving and he expects Boris Johnson to have to soon make a political decision if an agreement is to be reached

NEW: The Conservatives have started to sketch out plans to avoid a second Scottish independence referendum, with a memo circulating among a select group of people, including Michael Gove bloomberg.com/news/articles/… The document includes an interesting analysis on how Brexit has changed the political landscape in Scotland: “Put simply, there are not enough Leave voters to convert to the ‘No’ side to make up for the movement of Remain voters into the ‘Yes’ camp”

NEW: The @HMTreasury has asked government departments to identify "a minimum of 30% reduction" and cuts to their 2020 overseas aid — Official Development Assistance, ODA — spend The "commission" to find the 30% reductions was made in writing and sent to departments. I have seen the document. Departments have been given only a few days to identify "areas that could be cut" and provide "a summary of Q1 underspend as well as projected Q2-Q3 underspend"

NEW: The UK's most senior public official — cabinet secretary Mark Sedwill — went to the Cheltenham Festival as the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic buzzfeednews.com/article/albert… The Cabinet Office declined to say whether Sedwill paid for his own tickets or whether he received them as a gift.

On day two of Cheltenham, the WHO declared the coronavirus a pandemic. The day after the festival ended, the government started briefing it would ban mass events

NEW: The UK Is Taking Longer Than Other Countries To Process Coronavirus Tests — And That's A Big Problem For Contact Tracing buzzfeed.com/albertonardell… While the UK government publishes an update every day on new positive cases in the previous 24 hours alongside the number of tests carried out in that period, it does not disclose when these new patients were tested

The UK says it will recruit 18,000 people to work on contact tracing by the middle of May but declines to share little else. It won't even say how many have been recruited so far.

So we asked Germany & others how contact tracing works in their countries

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell… The comparison tells a story that is eerily similar to the UK’s approach to testing. As the coronavirus outbreak intensified in March and other countries ramped up capacity, Britain scaled back, and is now scrambling to catch up

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

NEW: The EU didn't consult with member states before agreeing to China's demands to alter an article written in the name of all 27 EU governments buzzfeed.com/albertonardell… As reported yesterday, EU & EU27 ambassadors published an op-ed in China Daily to mark the 45th anniversary of diplomatic relations with China. China's MFA had references to the coronavirus spreading from China removed from the piece

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1258045004783800322

EU & EU27 ambassadors have published an op-ed in China Daily to mark the 45th anniversary of diplomatic relations with China. I understand China's MFA had references to the coronavirus spreading from China removed from the piece and hasn't allowed publication of a Chinese version The op-ed can be found here chinadaily.com.cn/a/202005/06/WS…

Some observations

1. the same group of highly opinionated people who in Feb were convinced, adamant even, that the coronavirus was like a common flu now have very powerful takes about the lockdown.

The vast majority of these people don't know what they're talking about By that I don't mean that the lockdown is right or wrong — I don't know. I am not an epidemiologist. What I mean is that it is mind boggling to read such powerful and forceful takes from so many that don't have a crumb of scientific qualifications or background

Italian stats authority has published a report on excess mortality in March istat.it/it/archivio/24…

Deaths in March increased +49.4% compared to March 2015-2019 average but with significant regional differences: +94.9% in the north, where COVID-19 hit hardest, +2% in the south The increase is particularly dramatic in the worse affected areas of the country: Bergamo (+568%), Cremona (391%), Lodi (371%), Brescia (291%), Piacenza (264%), Parma (208%), Lecco (174%), Pavia (133%), Mantova (122%), Pesaro & Urbino (120%)