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John Engle, Almington Capital Merchant Bankers Profile picture
John Engle, Almington Capital Merchant Bankers
@AlmingtonCap
family office | VC/PE, stocks, cannabis | value, growth, special situations BA, MBA (Oxon) | MA (Dubl) | DipGrad (Lond) Commentary: https://t.co/iBhPuc3OSi
Feb 19, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Am I alone in thinking the whole Ukraine situation is absolutely hilarious? Everyone working themselves up about an inevitable invasion that almost certainly won’t happen. And if it did, it would almost certainly be limited to the Donbas region.

1/ Any decision to throw down will ultimately depend on whether or not Putin thinks maintaining the frozen conflict in the two breakaway regions is more useful to Russia than simply annexing them.

2/
May 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My latest on Tesla just got picked up by @YahooFinance:

"The legal, regulatory and financial risks attached to FSD and Autopilot look set to intensify. Indeed, those risks could well threaten to puncture Tesla's ballooning valuation." $TSLA $TSLAQ
finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-fu… For those not interested in reading a full writeup, I already did a thread based on the piece (as seen on @gurufocus):

$TSLA $TSLAQ
May 7, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
My latest, "Tesla's Full Self-Driving Promises Collide With Reality", just dropped @gurufocus (Ft. @PlainSite)

"Tesla's FSD issues are more than a matter of mere 'overhyping and under-delivering.' They also create grave safety concerns." $TSLA $TSLAQ

article link + thread👇 1/ Tesla's AV claims are again facing scrutiny this week thanks to @PlainSite's publication of an unredacted memo from CA's DMV in which a Tesla AV engineer is shown directly contradicting Elon's public statements about Tesla's FSD timeline. $TSLA $TSLAQ
reuters.com/business/autos…
Jan 20, 2021 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
In my latest for @SeekingAlpha, I discuss the credibility (and likely capex cost) of Tesla's plan to sell 20 million vehicles in 2030. Unsurprisingly, I find Elon's claims to be somewhat wanting. $TSLA $TSLAQ

Thread 👇

0/
 seekingalpha.com/article/439979… Despite its stratospheric share price, Tesla remains a niche player in absolute terms, with approx. ~500k deliveries in 2020 (less than 1% of global sales). The market has clearly baked in absolutely staggering growth. But can it deliver?

$TSLA $TSLAQ

1/
 seekingalpha.com/article/439979…
Jan 10, 2021 • 26 tweets • 9 min read
Thread on my latest at @SeekingAlpha:

Elon claims Tesla will produce 20 million cars per year in 2030. It will have to launch a lot of new models to do that. The problem: Tesla's product development pipeline is strangely sparse. $TSLA $TSLAQ

1/
seekingalpha.com/article/439812… At present, Tesla has just three vehicles officially in active development: the Tesla Semi, the next-generation Roadster, and the Cybertruck. Elon has also hinted at a future $25k vehicle that may expand Tesla’s reach beyond the premium and luxury segments. $TSLA $TSLAQ

2/
Jan 9, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Thread on my latest for @SeekingAlpha – "Tesla: 3 Years After Its Public Unveiling, The Tesla Semi Is Still Stuck In Development"

$TSLA $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/439799… 2/ In Nov. 2017, Elon crowed that the Tesla Semi would reach customers in 2019. But, as with so many Musk promises, this timeline required subsequent *ahem* revision. $TSLA $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/433984…
Nov 20, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Just cooked up so fresh FUD for the $BA.D Boys (cc: @PlugInFUD)

In Q3, revenue from Boeing's Defense, Space & Security segment came in at $6.8B, down 2% from the same period in 2019. Earnings from segment operations fared even worse, falling 17% year-over-year to $628M. $BA 2/ During the first 9 months of 2020, Boeing's defense segment brought in revenues of $19.5B, down a fairly modest 3% yoy. The bottom line took a far more substantial hit, however, falling 60% yoy to $1.0B.

$BA $BA.D
Nov 19, 2020 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
1/ My latest for @gurufocus, 'Tesla: The High Price of S&P 500 Inclusion', just went live.

"A closer review of what Tesla had to do to gain admission to the S&P 500 should give thoughtful investors reason for pause."

$TSLA $TSLAQ 2/ When Tesla reported its 4th consecutive quarterly profit in July, many investors saw index inclusion as inevitable, an expectation that caused the stock to climb over the summer. However, the S&P 500 Committee opted to punt in September.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
May 5, 2020 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Elon Musk's "genius engineer" mystique would not be possible if it weren't for the uncritical reporting of fawning "science & technology" journalists. Let's discuss how this works using the example below. $TSLA $TSLAQ

cc: @TESLAcharts for your list of aiders & abettors.

1/ Elon has argued publicly that a single giant solar plant in Utah could power the entire United States. For example, he made this claim in a December 2015 speech at the Sorbonne. $TSLA $TSLAQ

2/
 ecowatch.com/2015/12/04/elo…
Oct 30, 2019 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1) The slight rebound in solar deployments in Q3 does not appear to represent a meaningful reversal of the multi-year downtrend. Investors banking on Tesla being “more than just a car company” should think again. $TSLA $TSLAQ

seekingalpha.com/article/429989… 2) Tesla’s solar deployments have been in near-freefall since 2016. Deployments declined from their all-time high of 253 megawatts in Q4 2015 to a low of 29 megawatts in Q2 2019 (thanks to @TESLAcharts for his ever-excellent visualizations) $TSLA $TSLAQ
Oct 16, 2019 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1) Thread on 3Q19 earnings: The $TSLA long thesis assumes that it will not only soon become profitable (necessarily ignoring all material evidence showing this is false), but also that it is somehow immune to auto market cyclicality. We call BS. $TSLAQ

finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-not… 2) Auto manufacturing is a cyclical industry. That's just a fact. Yet, even when producing at full capacity in a robust consumer market, $TSLA has proven only fleetingly profitable – and even then it took a host of one-off gimmicks to do it in 2H18. $TSLAQ
May 6, 2019 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Thread on our recent note on the @WeWork IPO:

TL;DR - VC has bid WeWork's valuation to ridiculous levels, but public markets won't be nearly so generous. Its bloated valuation will soon be on the butcher’s block. This short will be fun.

Full note: gurufocus.com/news/870303 2/@WeWork's cash burn is insane, getting worse every year. A $1.9B net loss in 2018 set a new embarrassing record.

And the losses are not likely to end soon, if ever. Bernstein analysts estimate it will need $19.7B in financing through 2026.

wsj.com/articles/wewor…
Apr 17, 2019 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Thread on Starlink, @SpaceX's proposed satellite constellation. This is the program that's eventually supposed to pay all the bills and fund its Mars mission. Yet, according to Gwynne Shotwell, it might not happen at all. $TSLA $TSLAQ

Our full article:
seekingalpha.com/article/425491… 2/ While it costs nothing to dream about a future manned Mars mission, actually undertaking one will. According to the National Research Council, a manned Mars mission would carry a hefty $220 billion price-tag. $TSLA $TSLAQ #SpaceX
nap.edu/resource/18801…
Mar 26, 2019 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Thread:

@Zackfoot has shared a remarkable presentation given by Tom Bachrach to students at @Wharton on the emerging signs of fraud at $TSLA.

Bacharach cites several red flags, which we discuss in a new note: gurufocus.com/news/837436

@Paul_M_Huettner @TeslaCharts $TSLAQ 2/ Red Flag 1: A cursory examination of $TSLA reveals that it is a co. & stock built on a narrative of rapid growth. $TSLAQ has actually been slashing capex to the bone, casting doubt on its ability to build production capacity & promised new models

gurufocus.com/news/837436
Mar 5, 2019 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
1/6 Thread:

Elon's Model Y pump clearly hasn't gone as planned. Far from a cause for excitement, the 3/14 unveiling looks like an act of desperation. Tesla's back is against the wall. $TSLA $TSLAQ

@TeslaCharts @auto_schmidt @CoverDrive12 @orthereaboot

seekingalpha.com/article/424651… 2/6 The unveil, followed so soon after the $35k Model 3 flop, looks like an effort to shift the market's focus from the ugly present to a brighter future. This has been a standard Musk play for years. But this time the market isn't buying it. $TSLA $TSLAQ
cnbc.com/2019/03/04/tes…
Feb 13, 2019 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1/6 The Model 3 has been the hinge of $TSLA's growth narrative for years. Boosters touted a vast pre-order book as evidence of massive demand, declaring that it would take years to work through the backlog. That narrative has essentially collapsed. $TSLAQ
seekingalpha.com/article/424078… 2/6 $TSLA has spent yrs plugging the 450k order backlog. Elon couldnt stop tweeting about it and the co. kept touting it. Then, as of the Q4 call, they're "not thinking" about it anymore. Closest we'll ever see to them confirming backlog exhaustion. $TSLAQ
marketwatch.com/story/what-gol…
Feb 7, 2019 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
1/6 $TSLA's solar division has been collapsing in slow motion for a while, but in recent days some folks have finally started waking up. The ramifications for Tesla & Elon Musk will be severe. $TSLAQ

@SenKennedy @NewYorkGOP @news4buffalo

seekingalpha.com/article/423899… 2/6 $TSLA hit a 5-year low of solar installations in Q4 2018 (the estimable @TeslaCharts offers a great graphical depiction of this obvious wind-down).

And there's more pain to come: Tesla's guidance shows even less deployment in Q1, meaning a new post-2012 low. $TSLAQ
Dec 26, 2018 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
1/6 So $TSLA rockets into the close on the basis of an @elonmusk tweet pledging 100% Supercharger coverage in Europe in 2019 without any justification. Or 8K. Nothing. Yet surely it'll cost big $ to do. $TSLAQ

@markbspiegel @MidwestHedgie @painfulshort @jaberwock2 @Polixenes13 2/6 Supposedly, Elon is to have potentially market-moving tweets vetted by a securities lawyer, as per his settlement with @SEC_Enforcement. Of course, we know how much he respects that particular agency. Babysitting's set to commence no later than Dec. 28. Is this a last hurrah?
Dec 26, 2018 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Brief thread on $TSLAQ production & demand. These are 2 sides of the $TSLA narrative. It needs exponential growth in production AND the demand to absorb said production for the huge market cap to hold. We already know production has stalled out. Just look at Bloomberg's model. 2/ As we know all too well (and as we've repeatedly recounted), production can't be sustained at the rates @elonmusk has promised. Long gone is the 7k burst wk, let alone the 10k/wk M3 promises. Even the 5k/wk "sustained" rate has proven ephemeral. $TSLA
seekingalpha.com/article/422594…
Dec 18, 2018 • 12 tweets • 10 min read
1/ Thread on @SpaceX trying to raise $500mn in the wake of a punishing @WSJ exposé based on our latest note: gurufocus.com/news/787786

$TSLA $TSLAQ

@markbspiegel @TeslaCharts @BlondesE @WallStCynic @painfulshort @iamhubris @orthereaboot 2/ In its last funding round, in April 2018, #SpaceX was valued at $27.5bn. As of this latest round, it's now valued at $30.5bn. That is crazy for an unprofitable company facing a weak 2019 launch schedule & mounting competition. $TSLAQ

@MelaynaLokosky

theinformation.com/briefings/3117…