What if that was the bottom and Alts start to run?

I'm being serious.

August 5th 2024 check $BTC nuking and everyone saying it's over Now check a bunch of altcoin charts:

$WIF

$BNB

$OP

AI big caps that got listed on Binance: Some random notes on #ZEREBRO #aixbt #VIRTUAL and others....

-Generally perps only listing = death for these coins. Why? Probably a few different things: whales building shorts and unloading, carry trade where MMs own spot and short perps

-This is seen in moodeng, chillguy, pnut, and other big caps. Anything big that got listed perps only got fucking destroyed the last few weeks.

-At first I thought virtuals and aixbt were going to be immune bc they were listed on base and those are less pvp than the sol ones..

Over the next few weeks / months:

-consolidate and lower the number of your bags; trim on the way up

-Don't increase your risk, size down as the cycle goes on

-Learn to sell and learn to sell into more stable assets such as cash or $BTC -Still stay fluid and be ready to ape new narratives, this is where cash helps

-Target total macro tops, not necessarily individual targets (ie. say i'm selling bc btc is looking heavy, not bc you're up 3x on your bag)

-barbell strategy usually good, high fdv and low fdv, not mid

I own both #ai16z and #Zerebro and they'll be listed on Binance futures. Recent history shows that this is NOT a bullish event and you can generally expect anywhere from -50% retrace ( #FARTCOIN) as the best case scenario or much worse (GOAT Chillguy Pnut moodeng) A few arguments as to why you should hodl instead of sell:

-both of those coins already dumped a bit already onchain; if you weren't around for the dump then it might be a bit late

-some AI agents/infra did well post binance aka virtual and aixbt. Now, the base memes are more collaborative than SOL but still

I've been thinking a lot about big cap memes lately.

I've long held the idea that these would do pretty well and outperform many other regular coins for this later part of the cycle. Mostly talking about the ones like $PEPE and $WIF type of coins.

Some random thoughts:
-I don't necessarily put DOGE in this category; I think that's its own thing. DOGE is the most recognizable meme and elon's going to continue w. that.

-People clearly have demand for memes hence why they performed so well in Q1 this year. This was a regime change from utility

You get no do-overs the next time

What I mean by that is you had a 2nd chance w. your shitcoins from winter 2023 -spring 2024 and then alts went -80%+ down

Then we were saved by $BTC ripping

The next bear market that eventually comes (idk when), I don't expect this to rebound tl;dr cliffs:
I'm saying that we saw a great altcoin recovery in 2024 so far and many shitcoins mooned at the start of the year, died in the middle, and then now are going to have a big surge.

But after that, it's unlikely they bounce back so quickly. The next bear wont be like summer 2024

For those who are sidelined on $HYPE:

you've prob seen all the shills on the TL; it's made a lot of ppl rich. It's the best project this cycle and obv we're all saying 'oh why didn't I full port it on TGE at ~$4?'

Now price is near $30ish and you're saying what do I do now? As I said in OP, I think HYPE is the best project this cycle given every single step they've done. They are going to be around for a while and the price is going to go much higher. There are endless amounts of posts on the roadmap/bullish cases. I also have a bag.

I think that most coins have 1 last push left in them.

Most probably won't reach all time highs, this is due to dilution and market dispersion. Too many shitcoins.

That said, I think that many alts still have 2-5x left in the tank before the cycle end. How I'm personally going to play it is: If my coin is currently in its push (ie. Dino coins, not that I own any), I am going to take 30-50% of it off. Sure, they could go higher but if I had something like XRP, I'd probably be 50+ out by now.

We should have a strong move in Jan

Just because you started Crypto in 2017 doesn't necessarily mean you're going to outperform the new guys. Market experience helps but more so when you see the same types of environments. I know many 2017 guys who have failed to adapt to the conditions on the field and are washed Things rarely stay the same, especially in crypto. Swing trading big caps on binance is still a winning strategy in the right conditions but still underperforms top meme rotation onchain.

Pros and Cons for the Meme Super Cycle

Lately I've been thinking a lot about the duration of the meme pump and how it will be going forward. To be clear, memes have always had incredible moves. Ask any long time crypto trader and he'll always have a $DOGE story before it pumped. DOGE was always guaranteed to do some insane 10x and then completely retrace the entire move; only to consolidate for another 6 months and do it all over. It was like clockwork.

In 2021 we saw more meme strength w. DOGE and SHIB; PEPE also had a colossal run in 2023 in the bear market. Before, we always had the same rotation of majors--> mid caps --> memes then it would all be over. In the past, Memes pumping usually meant that retail was here and that was the end of the cycle (for the time being).

That changed this cycle in 2024 IMO.

1 thing I personally didn't expect was memes being the leading category/sector for all of crypto. We no longer saw strong tech projects lead as frequently (there was a brief period where the alt layer 1 trade was still there w. $SEI $TIA and others). But memes greatly took the attention with $WIF, $BONK, $PEPE, and many others crushing.

Memes in isolation are always going to be present. You're always going to have 1 crazy meme doing big numbers at all times in the industry; that's probable. But I'm more talking about the entire memecoin sector GrEATLY outperforming everything else as a regular occurrence for long durations, similar to what we have seen in 2024.

At the time, VC thought pieces came out with the meme coin super cycle. There are a lot of pros and cons as to why this is going to continue for the rest of this cycle (and many future cycles). I'll go into a few of them and what I am thinking about when evaluating this sector. PROS for memes being the future leader (for the most part)

-People are sick of insider coins. This means that retail is sick of all of the VC backed projects with shiny new tech and valuations 50x lower than the public valuation. We've seen all of these types of charts before; it's down only once VC gets their tokens. Memes generally offer higher float / more distribution from the inception, which allows for less insiders (more on this later).

-Shiny new tech actually doesn't really do much. It's the sad reality but crypto hasn't really seen as big of a need for these new ecosystems (yet). There aren't enough users to support the 59th clone of Uniswap/AAVE with a few different features. See Starknet, a ghost chain.

-Crypto investors are here for speculation, not the tech. They are mostly here to make $, not for the ideological reasons. What coins always pump the hardest? Memes. You'll always hear about early xxxx buyers who made millions of dollars because they were early.

-Easier to understand. Memes have a much lower barrier to entry for retail participants, very similar to 2021 NFTs in that regard. Why ask someone to understand modular blockchains or chain abstraction when you can simply buy a picture of a dog with a hat? There is no comparison.

-More accessible. This part can probably be debated but every meme is on a dex, where anyone can trade at. Doesn't matter where you are/etc, you can access a memecoin and buy it.

-Memes pump the hardest. I know I wrote this before but I want to reiterate it. If you're looking for truly life changing gains and you don't have a very large starting stack, buying BTC or even a mid cap like AVAX probably isnt going to make you very rich. On the other hand, if you are early to any of the big memes, you can make 7 figures + very easily with a low stack.

So, in summary, you have: Easier thing to understand (random picture), easier thing to trade (dex), higher upside with lower capital, less insiders (not as many VCs or any), and more. Sounds like an easy decision, right?

Today's $BTC post will be on support WEAKENING every time it is touched. I like to use the analogy of a dropped ball. The first time you drop it, it has the best bounce off the ground. Then weaker and weaker bounces after. The classic example of this is #Bitcoin at the unbreakable 6k level. One thing that always stuck with me is @CryptoCred saying 'first test, best test'.

So you can see the first initial reaction being the strongest bounce. Why is that? I don't know exactly but my guess is that you see lots of resting orders + late shorters getting screwed.

How to play these big $BTC dumps in a bull market:

I'm going to give you some things to think about when trading/reacting to these #Bitcoin events. Probably will just be a long list of rambling thoughts. -If you're not around, on your computer during these events, probably skip it. Don't trade; the first few minutes are SO important to catching any sort of dip or shorting. This is VERY important to understand. Late longing/shorting 15 minutes means you've missed most of the move

It's really important to understand that Altcoins DONT always move up in USDT value when #Bitcoin is mooning/going strong.

Take a look at $BTC during the start of its strong run at the end of 2020.

$ETH #Altcoins

Short thread After spending most of 2020 in hibernation/chop/consolidation zone (after the March 2020 black swan event), BTC started to fucking moon. It went from 10k to 40k in the span of just a few months.

1 of the coins I want to add for a long swing trade this cycle is an alt layer 1

We've seen some huge moves for some of them recently: $SEI $NEON $TIA Monad and others.

Why are these types of coins really good bets for the next cycle? Short ideas below



Alt layer 1s have always been around during different altseasons.

2017 we had $EOS $NEO $TRX and others

2021 we had $SOL $LUNA $AVAX

2024 we're going to have all of the above coins and several others. Probably some sort of ZK narrative coming up as well.

Having different portfolios for different strategies is very key as a crypto investor.

You can do it how you want but how I do it:

1) HODL stack ( $BTC and $ETH)
2) Investment stack (usually lower cap shitcoins)
3) Swing trade stack
4) Short term / scalp stack 1) HODL stack: usually $BTC $ETH and sometimes 1-2 other alts. I don't usually touch these much, just let it sit until the bull run.

Why? Because I know I'm going to fuck it up and trade and lose this $ in choppy environments. It's better to always have a safety net

December and January are some of the absolute best times of the year to trade/buy Crypto.

$BTC nearly always does well (even in bear markets) and $ETH outperforms.

Altseasons are born during these times.

Quick thread: December and January are prime times for #Bitcoin moves. There is always a rally sometimes during those months over the last several years.

Even during bear markets, we usually see some sort of relief.

What is Opportunity Cost?

Why does it matter in crypto or any investment?

It's one of the many reasons why bagholding shitcoins can be very bad if you don't have a strong plan

Only longterm bags should be $BTC and $ETH for now IMO.

Let's dive in Opportunity Cost definition:

the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.

What's this mean in crypto terms?

It means when you buy $SOL at $200 and hold it for 1.5 years and watch that liquidity be locked in for as long as you hold it.

Are you struggling with learning Crypto or $BTC Trading or NFTs?

Keep going. The work is front loaded (mostly), same with nearly all other endeavors

The hardest part is the beginning. What does front loaded mean?

Front loaded problems means that a lot of the hard work happens at the start.

It occurs in many other businesses. Real estate, computer programming, etc.

There is a paradox of only trading when $BTC conditions are good for your style and learning to trade in bad conditions to get to that point (of being an expert)

What does this mean? It means that to get good enough to become a strong trader and even understand your trading style, you have to trade in bad conditions while you are learning and likely lose a lot of $ in those conditions to level up and get to a higher level.

True altszns (the 1s where everything goes up cumulatively) might be over for a bit

That's not to say that there won't be periods where every alt goes up.

But with the pvp fragmented liquidity, there are going to be just a few that greatly outperform the rest.

$BTC dependent Ofc this was always the case to some degree but I think that the last true altszn we had was January/Feb 2021.

We really saw everything rip hard and it didn't matter what you had, you just woke up to 20% more each day.

0 skill needed for you to get rich.

Are you sidelined anon?

Are you mad and angry because you are seeing everyone print $ while you are uncomfortably in stables waiting for a $BTC dip?

Don't worry- you can still get exposure later. You have plenty of time. Don't fomo in. We might have a few days in a row but many alts are still not in a bullish market structure.

and we all know that few people actually have any bitcoin or eth exposure (sadly).

To be determined if and when altseason is coming. I do think a strong alt run comes...