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Andreas B Profile picture
Andreas B
@AndreasShrugged
Views are my own.
10 subscribers
Aug 29 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
I'll go on a little rant about this paper in @QJEHarvard if only for its treatment of the literature. As it's clearly not the first paper to analyze Black economic progress after slavery, we'll focus on the value-added over previous research. An important reference here is Sacerdote (ReStat 2005) "Slavery and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital".Image Now Althoff and Reichardt do cite Sacerdote twice - in Sections IV.B and V.A, rather en passant alluding to what they see as conceptual shortcomings in his approach. They never cite Sacerdote in their review of the existing evidence though. Despite the Sacerdote paper having asked a very similar question, A&R never tell what his conclusions were and how they may contrast with their findings and why.Image
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Jan 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Zeitgleich zum neuen Corona-Podcast 😉 auch ein neues, informatives Video von Oberst Reisner zum Ukrainekrieg. Neben den beobachteten, wechselseitigen Anpassungsdynamiken (Russland an HIMARS, Ukraine an Drohnen und CM) ist besonders lehrreich, warum...
...beide Seiten sich derzeit (wieder) in den Abnutzungskrieg verkeilen: Russland fehlt v.a. die fähige Infanterie, der Ukraine die (Schützen-)Panzer und Artillerie für größere Angriffe. Keine Seite kann also ähnlich wie im 1. WK einen schnellen K.O. erzielen. Russlann kann es
Dec 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The primary purpose of the vaccines was to decrease the harm resulting from people's initial infection with SARS-CoV-2. This goal has largely been accomplished, despite intense GBD lobbying to the contrary, as large majorities have accepted the vaccines early enough. Take the L. The cope is strong in "Look how the necessity for vaccines has changed since then!" Obviously, it has, at least beyond the most vulnerable, and so it should. Similarly, the effectiveness of vaccines obviously declines in a population that is already past its initial infection. 🤷‍♂️
Oct 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This tweet is so wonderful because it demonstrates that nobody needs to be wealthy or smart or special in any way to come up with a better view on Ukraine than Mike or Elon. In fact, everybody who is aware that he isn't any of this is already light-years ahead of the two. For example, everybody can count to 2. So everybody can count how many times Russia has attacked Ukraine in recent decades: 1, 2 times. And everybody can count how many times Ukraine has attacked Russia: 0 times. Everybody knows 2>0, so everybody knows the bothsidesism is BS.
May 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As I've already explained in German, there's no actual study backing up this claim. There's data being collected as part of a survey, but the researcher making this claim hasn't documented it in a publication or disclosed the data. Hey, maybe that's why it's on Disclose. Haha. The absence of a documentation makes it impossible to compare the stated rate of complications to that from other studies. What is clear though is that participation in the survey is not random but voluntary, meaning there's potentially a huge self-selection bias problem.
May 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I actually find it absurd to expect African or Asian countries to condemn and sanction Russia openly. Some reasons:
1. Economically, sanctions would inflict much more pain on these countries than on us. Here it's some % GDP loss at a high income level, there it's poverty lines. 2. Clearly, these countries are negatively affected by the disrupted agricultural exports from Ukraine and partly Russia due to Russia's war, but siding openly with the west wouldn't help them with that.
3. Russia might retaliate economically by further blocking trade routes etc.
Apr 27, 2022 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Hinterfragen wir die im @mdrde-Beitrag genannten Statistiken zu den Impfnebenwirkungen doch mal kritisch. Das wäre zwar eigentlich eine Aufgabe für Journalisten, die "kritische Fragen" stellen, aber zum Glück habe ich selbst eine kleine journalistische Ader: Laut Beitrag liegt die Unstimmigkeit darin, dass das @PEI_Germany schwere Impfnebenwirkungen nur in 0,02% der Geimpften meldet, die ImpfSurv-Studie von Prof. Matthes an der Charité dagegen auf 0,8% kommt, ebenso Studien aus anderen Ländern wie Schweden.
Apr 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
According to @Bruegel_org, EU gas imports from Russia are currently down 30% compared to 2021, while total gas imports are stable. So the share of Russian gas in all EU gas imports is currently down from ~33% in 2021 to ~22%. LNG imports are roughly making up for Russian decline. In the aggregate, it looks like the EU has been substituting Russian gas nearly 1:1 with LNG so far. Maybe that's not correct and the pattern is just spurious. But if it's approx. right, let's assume that's as far as LNG can take us for now.
Apr 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Nothing to disagree, but I doubt these moralistic accusations will change policies. If Germany is unable or unwilling to reduce dependency on Russia in the short term, it should get its chequebook out and compensate those EU countries that want to cut their Russian imports now. In the medium term, I think the German intention to fully uncouple itself from Russian energy imports is both real and feasible. But in the short term, the government sees a hard constraint there that you may or may not agree with. Practical suggestions should take that as given.
Mar 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Hätte ich die Wahl zwischen einem Boykott und einem Zoll auf russische Gasimporte, würde ich mich für den Zoll entscheiden. Den kann man noch nachjustieren, je nachdem, wie hart der Trade-Off zwischen Druck auf Russland und Auswirkung auf die eigene Wirtschaft gerade sein soll. Beide Maßnahmen belohnen erfolgreiche Substitution hin zu anderen Lieferanten und Technologien. Intuitiv würde der Zoll es einigen Unternehmen mit geringer Elastizität erlauben, so gerade noch weiterzulaufen, wenn auch zu hohen Kosten, während Boykott Schließung bedeuten könnte.
Mar 20, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The thing I've always liked about Americans is that they aren't afraid of saying what's good and what's evil. You may always disagree with their judgement, but at least, they make a judgement and take a stand. I often think Germany has lost this ability.
am1590theanswer.com/columnists/den… Without going into the depths of this debate, at least it's easier to argue what's good and what's evil if your culture has some religious underpinnings, as religions are about telling you what's good and what's evil. It's fairly easy to note these influences in U.S. culture.
Mar 18, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Die CDC-Studie ist prima, um Herausforderungen bei der Evaluation von Masken zu veranschaulichen: Ein Ansatz betrachtet Bezirke, die anfänglich keine Masken in Schulen hatten, sie dann aber im Zeitverlauf angeordnet haben, also von "Control" zu "Treatment" gewechselt sind. Aber: Image Die Entscheidung, Masken in Schulen einzuführen, ist natürlich nicht zufällig. Man hat hier also keine randomisierte Gruppeneinteilung, auch kein Quasi-Experiment, da die Bezirke sich ja gewollt in die "Control"- bzw. "Treatment"-Gruppe hineinselektieren. Warum ist das wichtig?
Mar 3, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
"Predications of bloodthirsty pundits - Of rapturous hawks and hasty cuckoos". Very worth reading translation of an article by Mikhail Khodarenok, who served in the Russian General Staff, from February 3, in which he warned against Russian overconfidence. russiandefpolicy.com/2022/02/07/mas… I had to google a bit to learn the meaning of the cuckoo in Russian - apparently, the cuckoo is a fortune teller like many "experts" but not a particularly useful one either: "The lesson is clearly not to tempt fate by asking stupid questions of a cuckoo."
Feb 25, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Ich habe heute Abend eine Mahnwache für Frieden in der Ukraine besucht. Die Veranstalter meinten es sicher gut und ich bin sehr dankbar, dass es diese Veranstaltungen momentan gibt. Aber es wurde einfach so deutlich, in welch verschiedenen Realitäten Deutsche und Ukrainer leben.1 Die Organisation lag in deutscher Hand in Form eines Aktionsbündnisses für etc. Die ukrainische Community hatte man nicht absichtlich außen vor gelassen, es fehlten hier die Ansprechpartner. Aber im Ergebnis hatte die Veranstaltung damit etwa den Charakter eines Ostermarsches.2
Feb 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Angenommen, Impfquote, Medikamente und Varianten blieben in den nächsten 1-2 Jahren stabil. Dann wäre die Zahl der Menschen, die an einer Corona-Infektion versterben würden, eine ziemlich fixierte Zahl. Nur Maßnahmen des Infektionsschutzes könnten diese Zahl noch beeinflussen. Dabei gilt zu beachten: Zeitlich begrenzte Maßnahmen verschieben lediglich das zeitliche Eintreten der Infektionen und damit der Todesfälle, da es immer nachlassende Immunität unter einem Teil der Geimpften geben wird und die Ungeimpften ihren Entschluss kaum noch überdenken.
Feb 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In the late stage of the pandemic, the debates and opinions are getting dumber, not smarter, as you may have noticed. More vitriol, more revisionism, more incitement. The simple reason is economics: Covid appears less dangerous now, so it's less costly now to be wrong. In 2020/21, there was still a fair amount of risk that dismissing facts and scientific views about Covid might turn out to be catastrophic. I think some of the critics felt this sword of Damocles above their heads. Now they feel they can just go with whatever they want to.
Feb 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Criticial points on the CDC masks study: RCTs on masks are difficult. So what they do instead is a test-negative case-control design. Meaning they look at people who test positive for Covid and compare their masking to that of people who test negative. But why do they get tested? Pointing to a big confounder: People seek testing for different reasons - some bc they have symptoms & get confirmation, others because they routinely test for work but don't have symptoms. But the symptomatic have much higher prob. of testing pos. than the regular testers have.
Feb 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
This @FoxNews piece by S. Sudhakar and @KincaidBest on the infamous lockdown study is a funny lesson about how to pretend being objective and fact-oriented while actually being manipulative and disingenuous. 1/N
foxnews.com/health/covid-l… They call it a Johns Hopkins study twice before saying it doesn't represent the views of JHU. As everybody knows by now, only one of the three authors has a JHU affiliation that enabled them to put out the working paper there. Could be intentional - or just bad writing. 2/N ImageImage
Feb 4, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In der Spätphase der Pandemie nimmt der Unsinn zu, nicht ab, genau wie die Diffamierungen und Polemiken mehr statt weniger werden. Das hat einen simplen Grund: Corona ist weniger gefährlich als im Februar 2020, weshalb die wissenschaftliche Meinung jetzt geringer geschätzt wird. In 2020/21 hätte eine Ablehnung der Wissenschaft fatale Folgen haben können - dieses Damoklesschwert spürten wohl auch die damaligen Kritiker noch. In 2022 befindet man sich gefühlt(!) im Endspurt und wird die letzten Meter schon irgendwie schaffen, mit oder ohne Wissenschaft.
Feb 2, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Meta-shmeta analysis. They claim they find that lockdowns reduced mortality in Europe and U.S. only by 0.2%. After browsing through their methodology and results though, it's obvious they aren't doing what they claim they're doing and their analyis is deceptive. /1 ImageImage They claim they're only selecting credible studies for their review by checking whether the study is using the difference-in-difference estimation framework. Diff-in-diff can indeed be credible if assumptions hold. And if you actually do it. /2 ImageImage
Feb 2, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Kaum sorgen die vielgescholtenen Experten für eine Schlagzeile, die ins eigene Weltbild passt, wird die Lockdown-Sau wieder durchs Dorf getrieben, anscheinend ohne kritische Reflexion über die konkrete Meta-Schmeta-Studie. Dabei gibt es hier viel zu reflektieren... /1 Meta-Schmeta-Analyse: Wenn dort viele qualitativ hochwertige Studien eingehen, die bspw. alle einen Kausalzusammenhang zwischen zwei Variablen mit überzeugender Methodik schätzen, kann die Analyse durchaus ein scharfes Bild herauskristallisieren. Das liegt hier aber nicht vor. /2