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Andrew Walker Profile picture
Andrew Walker
@AndrewRangeley
Emperor of @YetAnotherValue. Part time podcast host / blogger; Full time Cookie Monster.
7 subscribers
Apr 1, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Reading this letter inspired me to look deeper at Warren Buffet and $BRK

That lead me to one conclusion: 60 years of “no better than so-so” capital-allocation under Mr. Buffet’s stewardship is enough; shareholders deserve better / immediate change is needed.

Here's why: Consider 2022. Berkshire reported a *very* minor gain in intrinsic value. The price of coal doubled in 2022.

@WarrenBuffett literally lagged a lump of coal.

Don't shareholders deserve a manager who can beat coal? ImageImage
Oct 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
I'm spending enough time on the $TWTR contract that I'm thinking about going to law school, but three questions that my layman's brain have been hung up on / thinking about: Section 6.10 says @elonmusk will promptly notify $TWTR if debt financing falls through (his motion to stay also offered daily updates).

When would he need to notify Twitter by for the court to not think he was hiding the ball, particularly given his historic shenanigans here? Image
Jul 14, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Plenty of people have mentioned it (obviously @compound248 is all over it), but McCormick is the same judge who ruled in the DecoPac / KCAKE case. Well worth reading the whole thing; a few choice pieces that might have some applicability to the Twitter / Elon case.... First, the opinion comes in real hot. Buyer's want out because they overpaid / nuked their own financing / claim a fake MAE. Get out of here; court ruling is a "victory for deal certainty" with all issues resolved for the seller.
Jan 20, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Some notes as I prep for the $TIGO pod with @Bonhoeffer_KDS First, @BenClaremon's interview with $TIGO's CEO (Mauricio) is required listening for background. Mauricio comes off incredibly well and thoughtful, and lays out lots of the bull case and optionality here

open.spotify.com/episode/2xYoYE…
Dec 30, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Built on this a little bit with five predictions for 2022.

#1 (deep value retail / cyclicals) outperforms was obviously pretty popular! #2 is cable companies across the globe rip higher.

Cable trades for a discount to what inferior private market assets are trading for, is gushing cash flow, and retiring shares aggressively. That works in 2022
Dec 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My #1 prediction for 2022: deep value retail & cyclical commodities outperform. Simply too cheap, and most are returning capital aggressively in some forms (generally divs for the commodities; repos for the retailers).

Any favorite names for those themes I should be looking at? @twebs had a nice list of names and criteria here (on the commodity side)

Most of them were returning through divs; wish a few were more aggressive on repo

Dec 28, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I know there's value in stretching upfront payments into monthly... but how are rent to own players (like $AAN) not dead as vLTO and BNPL proliferate?

The mark ups just seem too big to sustain. A 65" TV priced on Samsung's website for $500 is $1.1k (plus lease costs!) at Aaron's ImageImage This isn't a troll or anything. $AAN's is at ~3.5x EBITDA and buying back shares, and I do understand that RTO is a massive value add for consumers living paycheck to paycheck.

But not sure how that mark up can sustain given all the start up fintech / BNPL players out there.
Dec 14, 2021 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
Some $FTAI notes as I prep for this pod The elephant in the room here is alignment. $FTAI is externally managed, and insider ownership is extremely low. The big worry is the company is incentivized to grow assets regardless of shareholder value
Dec 13, 2021 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
Some notes as I prep for my $LEE pod w/ @hkuppy First, I'll just say I'm angry I missed the start of this move. @hkuppy had been telling me for months to look at $LEE, and I wrote how local news could be the new "clicks to bricks" back in August

yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/some-things-…
Dec 6, 2021 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Prepping for the $ALLY podcast; here are some of my floating thoughts / questions: Honestly, this is a pretty simple value thesis. Stock's in the high $40s, so you're at ~1.2x book. ROE is currently over 20%; stocks with 20% ROE don't trade at 1.2x book for long (of course, assumes ROE is sustainable!) Image
Nov 16, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Some notes as I prep for the $DFIN pod with @rsosa8 $DFIN was spun out of $RRD a few years ago. Literally a pitch perfect example of a value accrettive spin; take a legacy biz with a lot of cash flow, let it focus on itself and pivot to a higher growth / value biz with their strategic relationships / knowledge.
Oct 26, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I mentioned this in my posts on $DWAC over the weekend, but I'm seeing lots of signs the SPAC market is heating up again Sign #1: $BRPM popping on their deal announcement. After a summer of no SPAC deal pops, this now makes two big deal pops inside of a week
Oct 25, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Spent lots of time this weekend thinking about the bonkers $DWAC / TMTG deal; I broke my thoughts into three parts (linked below), but honestly I'm already looking forward to part 4 once the company files their proxy. In part 1, I discussed how the $DWAC boom could cause a mini-resurgence for SPACs and might start a trend were famous entrepreneurs or personalities chose to partner with SPACs instead of conglomorates or VCs when launching new ventures

yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/weekend-thou…
Oct 24, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Excited to have @Nsacheti on the podcast tmr. We'll be talking about $VATE (FKE $HCHC, which was a widow maker for many small cap value investors).

Any questions for Nitin? Some of my notes below Top question would be around management. The Chair (Avi Glazier) has a huge stake and has been buying shares on the open market... Image
Aug 5, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Prepping for pod on $EXPI; I'm fascinated by the model.

A hyper growth "network marketing" style comp model where agents openly celebrate the stock price and use it to recruit new agents?

Massive🚩🚩🚩... but tough to argue with their results! ImageImage VirBELA also interests me. The stuff I see on their website (virbela.com) reminds me of the Sims from the early 2000s.... but it's a critical piece of their business and they might spin it at some point Image
Jul 15, 2021 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Excited to have @FokinArtem on the podcast tomorrow to discuss his long thesis for $BUR.

Going to try something new and post all my notes / clips from prepping for the pod in this 🧵; enjoy, and if you have any questions on Burford let me know and I'll try to incorporate them! What is Burford, and why do companies use them? ImageImage
Jul 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
With apologies to @maffei_fake, I think $ATUS is a layup right now. When you combine a variety of factors (cheapness, quality, upside, shareholder returns, etc.), I know of no other large cap stock that compares to Altice. Consider: Cheapness: Altice trades for ~8x last year's FCF, and a material discount to peers like $CHTR and precedent deals like the recent $WOW deal
Jun 25, 2021 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Following up on this conversation (and admitting I'm a huge neophyte still learning the industry), I went through Ginkgo Bioworks / $SRNG June 24 Investor Day and pulled a bunch of highlights in this thread: Just some general background; comping synbio to synthetic chemistry, why Ginkgo decided to focus on standardization.
Jun 1, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Last week, @BillAckman said he was looking to buy an "iconic" business and they'd been working on a deal since November

Given those criteria, and admitting that the potential company list is huge and calling a deal is a longshot... here are my top 10 most likely $PSTH targets: #1: Mark Anthony Brands. Owns White Claw (definitely Iconic!), stable consumer business (Ackman likes those!), potential issues with estate planning and licensure could be delaying the deal (a little looser, but possible!)
Sep 30, 2020 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
stock casually down ~a third since start of August versus a flat market Image They may not pull off their flywheel, but this is what you want to here from a potential flywheel market place like : status quo not great + trying to make experience "radically" better + no one else is close to their scale Image
Sep 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Assured Guaranty: the bear case

yetanothervalueblog.com/2020/09/assure… addressing some of the bear case on their last earnings call Image