ᴀɴɪsʜ ᴍᴏᴏɴᴋᴀ Profile picture
On the art of business, Investing (🇮🇳 focused equities) & Nature | IIT Kharagpur alumnus | Memento Mori.
Rahul saunik Profile picture pavankumar karnam Profile picture 3 added to My Authors
21 Sep
Book: Billion Dollar Lessons 💰 by Paul B. Carroll

“Read and learn about the costly mistakes of others; it could save you tremendous time and money.”

This thread will be updated as I read further.
1/ True Business Education?
2/ “Organizations involved in life-and-death situations—such as hospitals, airlines, and the military—routinely do after-action analyses that help them keep from repeating catastrophic errors.”

Investors should follow the same.
Read 43 tweets
13 Sep
Top 5 global pharma cos. (by rev)

J&J- $83B
Roche- $55B
Novartis- $49B
Merck- $48B
Pfizer- $42B

Top 5 Indian Pharma cos. (by rev)

Sun- $4.7B
Aurobindo- $3.3B
Cipla- $2.7B
Dr Reddys- $2.6B
Cadila- $2.1B

$1.6T market by FY25, Not investing in 🇮🇳's pharma growth story is a risk.
What makes us optimistic? $236B worth of innovator drugs patent expiry to happen in the next 4-5yrs.

Who are the most competitive players that will gobble up the opportunity? Indian Pharma cos.

Whether be it biosimilars or complex generics.

Src- Care Ratings
The costs of production in India is 50% cheaper than the developed markets

The cost of R&D is 1/8th the developed markets

The cost of clinical trials is 1/10th the developed markets.

+ Trained & specialized pharma workforce.
Read 7 tweets
9 Sep
All the companies in the Cement Fibre Products Industry have given huge returns in the past year 👇

Let's understand what drives the industry & the risks.

Hit the 'retweet' to help us educate more investors.

A Thread 🧵
1/ The Indian roofing industry is worth Rs 42,000 Crores and is expected to grow at the rate of 6-8% cagr.

So, What are the different options & what sets them apart?
2/ Among the pucca houses, less than half use RCC slabs; the rest utilize ready-to-use house roofing products (fiber cement roofing/ metal roofing).

Comparison between different options 👇

Now, this clears the superiority of Fiber Cement Sheets, let move further.
Read 19 tweets
2 Sep
Ami Organics IPO notes ⚗️

Supplies Raw materials (Intermediates) to API players (7% of revenues from Laurus Labs for example)

Hit the 'retweet' & help us educate more investors

A Thread 🧵👇
1/ Basics about the IPO.

Raising 200crs of Fresh Issue (& OFS of 370crs): will be used for repayment of debt & WC

MCap at 2200crs: EV/S of 6 & EV/EBITDA of 26 (stretched for an unknown company)

Promoters only hold 41% after the IPO
2/ An Pharma intermediates player that sells to API players focusing on high-growth therapeutics.

Caters to 150 customers (incl. Laurus, Cadila & MNC players, etc) | 50% exports
Read 12 tweets
2 Sep
Semiconductor shortages are creating some fantastic opportunities in the broader stock market; think FY24 & swing the bat.
On the contrary, the current supply crunch will help the OEMs to pass on the increased RM costs.

This will reflect in the bottom line & gross margins (OEMs have seen a 6-7% reduction from FY18) when this normalizes.
High uncertainty in the short term is the best friend of a long-term patient investor.

Look for companies that have high operating leverage play (including financial leverage), are not being talked about in the investment circles & where the promoters have everything to lose.
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug
"We are carrying Rs 27,936 crore of fixed-rate liabilities at 8.66%, largely legacy, and you can imagine the upsides when these are replaced by low-cost deposits." ~ V. Vaidyanathan, IDFC First Bank FY21 AR.
"We advise our product teams to design products in such way that it is meant to be sold to our 'near and dear' ones. We make products with transparent pricing and fees."
"We don’t pressurize our employees to 'somehow' sell high-margin products to meet fee targets. The list of our 'Customer First' features is long."
Read 14 tweets
3 Aug
Krsnna Diagnostics IPO notes: 'Let's do Good' ❓

Hit the 'retweet' & help us educate more investors

A thread 🧵👇

1/ Basics about the IPO

Issue Dates: 4 - 6 August
Issue Size: ₹ 1,211 Crore (400crs Fresh Issue & 811crs OFS)
Mcap at the upper band: 2994crs
Price Band: ₹ 933 - 954
Retail Quota: 10%

Promoter stake to go from 32% to 27% post IPO.
2/ About the company.

Krsnaa Diagnostics provides technology-enabled services such as imaging (including radiology), pathology/clinical laboratory, and teleradiology

to public and private hospitals, medical colleges and community health centres across India.
Read 13 tweets
31 Jul
Windlas Biotech IPO notes 💊

'What's in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet' ~Shakespeare

Hit the 'retweet' & help us educate more investors

A thread 🧵👇

1/ Basics about the IPO 👇

Incorporated in 2001

Fresh Issue of 165crs (50 for capex | 48 for Working capital | 20 for debt payment) + OFS of 237crs (Partially by promoter & PE Tano selling out as the fund tenure is up)

~ Total raise of 402crs
2/ About the company (Not a Biotech company)

A Contract manufacturer for formulation cos. (204 in total) for Indian markets & a small domestic OTC biz

3279 products, 4 plants with 700cr tablets/capsules capacity

Emphasis on chronic (60% of rev) & complex generics (70% of rev)
Read 15 tweets
28 Jul
A thread on the snippets (paragraphs & quotes) from the book ‘Amazon Unbound: Jeff Bezos & the invention of a Global Empire 🏰’ by Brad Stone

This 🧵 will be updated as I read further & further. Image
1/ Quotes to ponder about 👇 Image
2/ The scar tissues. Image
Read 11 tweets
26 Jul
Glenmark Life Sciences (GLS) IPO notes 🔬

Plans to take the capacity to 1762KL (currently 762KL) in the next 4 years.

Hit the 'retweet' & help us educate more investors

A thread 🧵👇

1/ About the company

Developer & manufacturer of high value, non- commoditized APIs (complex & low competition) in chronic therapeutic areas: CVS, CNS, pain management & diabetes, etc

Basic details about the IPO 👇

Note: After paying off liabilities, 150crs remain for capex.
2/ The Journey

Established the API business in FY02

Since 2015, Have not received any adverse reactions from regulators (USFDA, PMDA) in the total 38 audits & inspections & Have gone through 432 customer audits.

Filled 403 DMFs & CEP registration across markets globally.
Read 18 tweets
17 Jul
A thread on the snippets (paragraphs & quotes) from the book ‘The Hidden Life Of Trees: What They Feel, How They Communicate’ by Peter Wolleben (A forester 🌳)

‘Trees in the forest are social beings.’

This thread will be updated as I read further & further.
1/ Trees are underrated.
2/ Wood Wide Web.
Read 22 tweets
15 Jul
Mr. NS Mohan (MD, Suprajit Engineering) gives a perfect example to explain the Indian Automotive Industry: The doll 'Okiagari- Koboshi'

Whenever something hits them, they upright themselves & then again something hits them & on & on. (1/3) Image
Alludes to the fact that been in the industry since 1985 & never seen them being hit with such severity & regularity.

Still, the industry isn't out.

These are the trends that are playing out 👇 (2/30 Image
So what lies ahead? He said: I don't know. (3/3) Image
Read 4 tweets
8 Jul
A thread on the snippets (paragraphs & quotes) from the book ‘Modern Monopolies: What it Takes to Dominate the 21st-Century Economy’

This thread will be updated as I read further & further.
1/ The burning platform.
2/ Why did Nokia fail?
Read 15 tweets
8 Jul
Why your nearby restaurant has a sweet-sour relationship with Zomato/Swiggy?

A mini Thread 🧵👇
1/ Aggregator Economics

Aggregators are cash-guzzling businesses

Although the restaurant volumes go up, increasingly these companies are getting stricter with respect to their cash flows leaving no cut for the restaurant owners

With the listing, this will continue to grow.
2/ Customer Data Masking

Aggregators don't share any user data with the owners leaving them clueless about their customer base, their demographics & trends.

Owners feel that they are losing their brand value & their food is getting commoditized.
Read 8 tweets
7 Jul
Tata Motors JLR investor conference call.

‘Before the semiconductor issue: the wholesale expectations for H1 was 270,000 and now it is 150,000’

A mini thread 🧵👇
1/ It will take us 12 to 18 months to get back to the Wholesale levels to support the current retail demand.

The semiconductor shortage is a huge issue, however a temporary one 🧗🏻
2/ No significant launches are being delayed due to these challenges.

The order book is currently at 110 thousand, covers only three of the five regions that the company caters to.
Read 8 tweets
2 Jul
With so much focus around the world wrt sustainability, one way to differentiate between speciality chemical companies is their focus on green chemistry.

The customers would soon demand this of everyone.

Source: Clean Science & Tech RHP.
Indian Speciality chemicals are expected to grow at over double digits till 2025.

Agrochemical & Fertilizer & Pharma API contribute 55%+ of the total speciality chemical space in India.
Why Mamaearth type startups are doing well.
Read 4 tweets
29 Jun
R&D & Capex Spends by 2 optical fiber companies.

Separating facts from fiction.
Both the managements are gung ho about the investments they have made in 5G products & development of an R&D focused culture.

Numbers reflect that in only STL’s books, however, the revenues from new products haven’t started flowing in.
Their market cap is similar.

Their Operating cashflows aren't.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jun
What is wealthy? Net worth of more than 500 times your yearly expenses.
Why? This is to ensure that one is safe financially in the worst of situations.
If this does look like too much: Imagine one has accumulated 500 times their expenses.

& given the age-related problems; Net of investments their expenses go up 15% YoY for 30 years (conservative viewpoint).

By the 31st year, one is just left with a single year of expense.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jun
A thread on the snippets (paragraphs & quotes) from the book ‘Why We Sleep’ by Matthew Walker 💤

One third of our lives, better read about it.

This thread will be updated as I read further & further. Image
1/ “Two-thirds of adults throughout all developed nations fail to obtain the recommended eight hours of nightly sleep.”

Imagine if you don’t have that rare ‘short sleep’ genes 🧬 that allows you to do will less than 5 hours of sleep 🛌.
2/ It’s going to get ugly. Image
Read 39 tweets
23 Jun
How the semiconductor crisis is affecting the automobile industry globally

Inventory levels at the manufacturer & dealerships are the lowest ever

This will get resolved by Sep & OEMs are already in talks in ancillaries to work at max capacity post-Sep to make up for the losses. Image
"If the software is eating the world, then the chips are the teeth"

Why Semiconductors are so important & the events that led to the global shortage.
Why did the Auto Industry specifically face a lot of brunts?

The cars are getting more advanced, leading to semiconductors powering almost everything:

From Power steering to complicated in-vehicle computer systems. Image
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
A thread on the snippets (paragraphs & quotes) from the book ‘Gene Machine’ by Venki Ramakrishnan (a Nobel Laureate)

Talks about a machine that decodes the data in DNA 🧬

This thread will be updated as I read further & further.
1/ Ribosomes aka Mother of all molecules.
2/ DNA is decoded into proteins & they run the show.
Read 13 tweets