SA’s draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), published today for public comment, is an admission of failure around eliminating load-shedding and it fails to fulfil its declared purpose of ensuring electricity security while minimizing environmental impacts and the cost of supply /1 SA's IRP 2023 admits much “unserved energy” for at least the next 4 years. It advocates delaying the closure of old coal power stations, working around minimum emission standards & provides dodgy conclusions on a least-cost power system without detailing its input assumptions /2

Reports are emerging that ⁦@Eskom_SA⁩’s diesel tanks for its OCGT peaker plants are empty & won’t be replenished because the utility doesn’t have the cash and/or doesn’t believe the regulator - @NERSA_ZA - will condone budget overspend. SA’s power system at enhanced risk /1 South Africa’s power utility @Eskom_SA’s decision not to refuel its diesel OCGTs removes 2067MW from rapid response resources available to the System Operator at a time of intermittent and declining coal plant output, increasing the risk of more loadshedding and system failure /2

Mostly I no longer notice @Eskom_SA load shedding. Sometimes I look at the EskomSeP**s App but I don’t need to. I have a solar PV+battery system.
I’m asked often about small scale embedded generation choices. Here are some decisions you might need to make (not exhaustive) /1 The first issue around alternatives to utility grid supply is affordability. We now have competitive options. Households can decide how big they can go - all their loads or only some /2

South Africa's power market is being transformed. Here’s what’s happening 1/
* Generation licences are no longer required. New Elec Reg Act Sch2, to be gazetted in Sept/Oct, will clarify this. Neither the Energy Minister nor NERSA are now gatekeepers of market entry /1 * Power projects >100kW, which don’t need licences, still need to be registered with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. This process has been made simpler and quicker /2

President @CyrilRamaphosa has announced a number of interventions to end power cuts on SA:
1/ Further support for @Eskom_SA
2/ Acceleration of IPP procurements
3/ Further easing of distributed generation regulations
4/ Feed-in tariffs for rooftop solar
5/ Transformation of power 1/ Further @Eskom_SA interventions include:
* recruitment of past Eskom plant operators
* purchase of surplus elec from IPPs, mines, industry
* increased SAPP imports
* demand side resources
* climate finance for grid strengthening
* land leases for solar
* stepped up policing

Misleading comments have been made at the current National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) hearings that IPP costs are a major contributor in the 20% tariff hike requested by @Eskom_SA. Not true. IPP costs have declined and each year result in lower c/kWh for Eskom 1/ @Eskom_SA As production of electricity from renewable energy IPPs supplying @Eskom_SA increases, the overall required revenue will increase, BUT the implications for tariffs in c/kWh is lower as unit costs for renewables fall /2

Now we see the consequences of Parliament’s dilatory impeachment of South Africa’s Public Protector who is now investigating legitimate contracts with Independent Power Producers. This will be hugely damaging to President @CyrilRamaphosa’s investment drive and SA energy security. The origins & timing of this investigation by South Africa’s Public Protector into legitimate IPP contracts is curious. A complaint was lodged by Phapano Phasha’s Anti-Poverty Forum in Feb 2019 but followed up only now.
(Phasha is virulently opposed to President @CyrilRamaphosa)

There’s a huge variation in performance in ⁦@Eskom_SA⁩’s coal power station fleet. The Energy Availability Factor (last column) for Lethabo is an excellent 85%, Matimba is 77%, while Tutuka is only 34%. The mega new plant is also disappointing: Kusile 24%, Medupi 62% 1/ Eskom’s best performing power station, Lethabo, has excellent management, systems, skills, commitment. You see it immediately when you visit. Tutuka, the worst performing plant, is the opposite: poor management, power station managers suspended, careless attitudes, corruption…/2

Great interview between Judge Dennis Davis and @Eskom_SA’s CEO André de Ruyter. I’ve provided a précis is the thread below
enca.com/shows/judge-yo… 1/
Davis: Is it possible to fix Eskom?
AdR: We’re trying but we also need an enabling environment. Power stations are old, unreliable. We need to pivot to a cleaner, greener future and we need better integration of government energy, fiscal, industrial and environmental policies

With my home solar/battery system I’ve not had a second of load-shedding in many many moons but I mourn for South Africa. Power cuts will cripple our post COVID economic recovery. They cannot be the new norm. There is a wise consensus on solutions. A reminder below /1

https://twitter.com/Eskom_SA/status/1349631746724286464

Eskom can’t solve SA’s power crisis alone. The avg age of its kit is nearly 40 yrs. 11000MW will be decommissioned by 2030. With R480 billion debt it cannot finance new capacity. Government doesn’t have the money. South Africa is now reliant on private investment for new power /2

1/ Energy security is 1 of 4 priorities in President @CyrilRamaphosa’s Reconstruction and Recovery Plan. Makes sense. South Africa cannot power a post-COVID economic recovery unless it has an adequate & reliable power supply. Here’s my thread on the + & -
gov.za/sites/default/… 2/ Positives in @CyrilRamaphosa’s plan
Energy security is prioritized
Key intervention areas are recognized:
a) fast track procurement of new power as per IRP elec plan
b) ease licensing for self generation
c) restructure Eskom to enable competition
d) no nuclear distraction

1/ I’m really trying to stay positive during the lock-down but we also need to think about the resilience of our economy and future growth prospects. This move by SA’s Energy Minister @GwedeMantashe1 was cranky, short-sighted and detrimental. Here’s why (in the thread below)

https://twitter.com/engnewsza/status/1243524405336199170

2/ South Africa’s Energy Minister has gazetted a schedule 2 amendment (under the Electricity Regulation Act) specifying which categories of electricity generators don’t need a licence from the regulator, NERSA. He decided <1MW rather than <10MW, ignoring stakehokder advice

1/ It’s not easy for me to tweet this. I was a Board member of the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) many years ago but they are not now serving South Africa as they should. Let me explain why in the thread below. Read this first nersa.org.za/wp-content/upl… 2/ South Africa is experiencing crippling power cuts which constrain economic activity and prejudice household welfare. We urgently need new power procurements and investment, especially now when our economy will be battered by COVID-19 as well

1/ President @CyrilRamaphosa and energy Minister @GwedeMantashe1 (in his speech in parliament today) have outlined progress around 4 interventions aimed at accelerating investment in new generation capacity in South Africa. My comments in the thread below..... 2/ these are the 4 interventions:

a) ease permissions for self generation

b) procure emergency power

c) issue Sec34 determinations to implement the IRP and kickstart IPP procurements

d) allow municipalities to procure their own power

So, what progress has been made?

1/ Some take-aways from the 6 monthly financials reported this afternoon by South Africa’s national power utility Eskom 2/ Eskom’s net profit for the 6 months is R1.3 billion. But that doesn’t mean the utility is profitable. Higher winter tariffs skew the results and Eskom predicts another record loss of >R20 billion at year end. Dwarfs losses in all other SOEs

1/ South Africa’s electricity planning continues to be paralyzed by vested interests. All planning models of the past decade, with the objective function of a least-cost, RELIABLE power system have never selected nuclear, but some still push it regardless dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/20… 2/ Many who criticize Integrated Resource Planning Models don’t understand how they work. IRP models assess every hour of demand and supply over a year and select the optimal mix of supply options which result in adequate and reliable electricity supply at the least cost