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@jakesullivan ahead of NATO summit:
- Allies have to spend more than 2% of GDP on defence
- Sweden membership bid “may not” be solved at summit
- China can be “constructive” in ending the Ukraine war
- Ukraine will have “pathway” towards NATO with “additional steps” 2/12
- Allies will begin talks to negotiate Israel-style long-term “security commitments”
- Danger of nuclear escalation doesn't “paralyse” US, but threat “is real”
- Putin has been weakened by rebellion
- Prigozhin is “at liberty”, location unknown

Details below

Interesting signals from @DOD_Policy Colin Kahl. Does not rule out US support for a Ukrainian attempt to push into Crimea. Also signals that Russia and China will "deepen" their relationship. 🧵 from conversation with Defense Writers Group 1/6 On Crimea: "Crimea is Ukraine...it's not Russia." Any future advance into territory lost in 2014 would be Ukraine's decision. "Our role is to make sure that Ukraine continues to have the capability to defend its sovereign territory deter aggression." 2/6

Thoughts on Ukraine after briefing from @DOD_Policy: Arms supplied by latest $3bn US aid package may take up to 3 years to arrive. Not much help now, but US says it's in for a long war. There are limits: new aircraft "under discussion". No ATACMS (300km-range missiles). 🧵 1/7 "It's our assessment that they don't currently require ATACMS," he says. US priority is "what is most useful and efficient for what the Ukrainians need for their current purposes, which are: hold in the east; and generate momentum elsewhere in the country" 2/7

A Western official paints a grim picture of Russia's progress in Ukraine: The commander of Russia's 37th Motor Rifle Brigade in Ukraine has been killed by his own troops - apparently run over by them - in a sign of falling morale. The official estimates that 20 of Russia's roughly 100-120 Battalion Tactical Groups are "no longer combat effective".