One thing that studying the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has taught us, is how little we know about its current and future evolutionary trajectories. It is a virus that is full of surprises and has challenged popular assumptions many times already. 1/n One often hears statements in media reports, that are rarely challenged, about how this virus will inevitable settle in to become mild, like some other coronaviruses. 2/n

What does JN.1 tell us about where we are with the pandemic? Some comments from me for a piece by @whippletom

thetimes.co.uk/article/new-co… The pandemic is far from over, though of course we are past the initial acute phase and the risk of public health system collapse. nevitable see greater public health impacts from covid.

What's a hopeful monster? This is an idea in evolutionary biology that new organisms can result from large changes. Thus, these are monsters, in that they are very different to their ancestors. And hopeful, in that usually they won't increase fitness.

https://twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1691193675445886976

So imagine a mammal evolves wings. Quite monstrous. And pretty hopeful if it's an elephant. But bats? Oh that worked out.

A really important question we should be asking is whether we are more prepared for the next pandemic as compared to 2019. By rights we should be; we have gained unprecedented insight into how a pandemic can unfold and what interventions work. Are we though? A much harder question to answer. Have we done enough with the knowledge we have acquired? Are we better prepared to deploy these tools next time?

[SHORT THREAD] On the duration of a pandemic. 1/n

https://twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1592535935262265345

I asked the above question the other day. Where am I going with this? As you can see from the range of answers, there is a broad range. But, by no means do most people think the HIV pandemic is over. 2/n