We know there's been a lot of interest -- especially recently! -- in "how many shots are out there." Now you can see that, and see what's coming:
☝️This dataset is from the weekly CDC allocations, dated to the time of announcement (our best judgment on when doses are made "available" or "delivered" to the federal gov.). We've also recreated a history of non-CDC-allocated doses, which get announced by the WH.
⚠️This is a huge number that's 50% bigger than we've ever seen. it's possible there's some sort of data/methodological reason for this. We are investigating and will post a blog/more tweets if we find out something more.
In the meantime, <sportscenter voice> THAT'S A BIG ONE
There are some states here that are all having record days: Take a look at Cali, NY, Mississippi, North Carolina:
⚠️Data note: We made a chance to our NYC methodology that brings it in line with the rest of the U.S. The % of people vaccinated now reflects residents, not place of vaccination. The resulted in a change to our NYC %s.
If there's a significant pull-back after the storm make-up bump, this could slip back down. But between J&J doses going into arms this week + rising shipments of about 15M doses/week, that seems unlikely/short-lived.
Short version: CDC made major changes in how they attribute doses to states, in a way that makes their data non-comparable with state-produced data. Unless something changed, we will be using CDC data for the U.S. going forward. Read the details here:
Upside: It places Defense Dept. vaccinations in the place where people reside. That's important -- the 1918 flu is thought to have started in a military base in Kansas. These federal categories aren't abstract.
1/ As of this afternoon, CDC is assigning doses given to people in federal entities TO the states where they reside. This significantly affects the CDC's state totals in a way that makes them harder to compare to state dashboards
2/ This amounts to about 3 million doses. This makes it much harder for us to compare what states report to what CDC reports, which is a big part of our model. (Federal entity numbers are not typically included in state-reported vaccine tallies.)
You can see how various groups are getting vaccinated vs their populations. Black and Hispanic populations are being vaccinated below their population shares, while some groups are getting vaccinated above.
New cases in the U.S. continue to fall after the holiday surge. This chart plots total vaccinations vs confirmed cases. More vaccine = more impact on driving down new cases. The leveling off there is (probably mostly) from post-holiday decline.
Here's our table of vaccine deals -- the U.S. now has a TON of vaccine inbound. It's also received more vaccine faster than many other countries with deals for cleared vaccines -- Canada got briefly cut off, more or less, amid a supply interruption
In the U.S., states have started taking unused doses from nursing homes and pulling them back into their state distribution systems -- this should tighten up some of the slack in the system. Per @angelicalavito