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Arno Venter Profile picture
Arno Venter
@ArnoVenter9
Market Analyst @FinSourceco, views my own.
Dec 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
US CPI tomorrow.

Best to start with PPI, where USD's reaction was surprising. The beat saw an initial pop, but was faded very fast. Market's reaction was 'yes PPI beat estimates by quite a bit, but the trend is still showing deceleration'.

That's important for CPI tomorrow

/1 Estimates for CPI expects another deceleration. Distribution shows outliers on the upside, meaning a move >7.4% on headline & >6.2% should already 'surprise', but after PPI's reaction it argues that a beat above prior is arguably needed for a decent USD upside reversal.

/2
May 2, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
What to expect from this week's FOMC? A hawkish Fed.

What does that mean for the USD? Probably downside.

The Fed has a very high bar to surprise markets even more hawkish from what is already expected.

1/ What's expected for rates?

STIR markets are pricing in 100% chance of a 50bsp. Not only that, markets also already priced additional 50bsp hikes for both June and July.

That means it'll probably take a 75bsp and signals of more 75's to really surprise on the hawkish side.

2/